Spring 2012 in the contiguous U.S. demolished the old records for hottest spring and most extreme season of any kind, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Thursday. With the warmest March, third warmest April, and second warmest May, the March - April - May spring season was 5.2°F above average--the largest temperature departure from average of any season on record for the contiguous United States. What's truly remarkable is the margin the old record was broken by--spring 2012 temperatures were a full 1°F above the previous most extreme season, the winter of 1999 - 2000. All-time seasonal temperature records are very difficult to break, and are usually broken by only a tenth of a degree. To see the old record crushed by a full degree is a stunning and unparalleled event in U.S. meteorological history.
Figure 1. Temperature rankings for spring 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Thirty-one states were record warm for the 3-month period, and an additional eleven states had top-ten warmth. Spring 2012 beat the previous record for hottest spring on record, set in 1910, by an remarkable 2°F. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
U.S. heat over the past 12 months: a one in half-a-million event
The U.S. record for hottest 12-month period fell for the second straight month in May. The June 2011 - May 2012 temperatures smashed the previous record by a startling 0.4°F, which is a huge margin to break a record by for a 1-year period. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Thirty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional ten states were top ten warm. Each of the 12 months from June 2011 through May 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895-present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 531,441. Thus, we should only see one more 12-month period so warm between now and 46,298 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as during the past 118 years. The unusual warmth was due, in part, to a La Niña event in the Pacific that altered jet stream patterns, keeping the polar jet stream much farther to the north than usual. However, it is highly unlikely that the extremity of the heat during the past 12 months could have occurred without a warming climate. Some critics have claimed that recent record warm temperatures measured in the U.S. are due to poor siting of a number of measurement stations. Even if true (and the best science we have says that these stations were actually reporting temperatures that were too cool), there is no way that measurement errors can account for the huge margin by which U.S. temperature records have been crushed during the past 12-month, 5-month, and 3-month periods.
Figure 2. Three of the top ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 3. The average temperature during January - May 2012 was the warmest on record: 5°F above the 20th century average for the period, and 1.3°F above the previous record set in 2000. January - May temperatures have been rising at about 1.8°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Second warmest May, warmest year-to-date period on record
May 2012 was the second warmest May in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Twenty-six states had a top-ten warmest May, and no states had a top-ten coolest May. The January - May 2012 period was the warmest January - May period since record keeping began in 1895, with temperatures 5°F above the 20th century average for the period. This broke the previous record set in 2000 by an unusually large margin--1.3°F.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March - April - May) shows that 2012 had the most extreme spring on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.
Most extreme spring and January - May period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the spring March - April - May period. This is more than twice the average value, and spring 2012 was the most extreme season of any kind in U.S. history. A list of the top five most extreme seasons since 1910, as computed using the CEI, show that two of the three most extreme seasons in U.S. history occurred in the past 12 months:
Spring 2012: 44%
Winter 1979: 42%
Summer 2011: 39%
Fall 1985: 39%
Spring 1934: 38%
Remarkably, 81% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during spring 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during spring was 18%, which was the 19th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were the 8th largest on record. The year-to-date January - May period was also the most extreme such period in U.S. history, with a CEI of 43%. Climate change theory predicts that, in general, the climate should warm, wet areas should get wetter, and dry areas should get drier. The spring 2012 Climate Extremes Index reflects this pattern.
Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. None of the computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic through June 15.
Jeff Masters
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Oh, and today marks 11 years since Tropical Storm Allison's inundation of Houston. I guess it only makes sense that there should be a major flood today.
There are reports of closed intersections throughout the city, including East Hill, intersections of Cervantes Street and at Barrancas Avenue and Main Street in Pensacola.
Main Street in Pensacola near the Community Maritime Park is closed. A Pensacola police officer is stationed in the area to redirect traffic.
Parts of Escambia County had already seen 10 inches of rain before noon, and it’s still coming. As much as 13 inches could fall by the end of the day, the Weather Service said.
The American Red Cross has opened a shelter for residents affected by today’s flooding. The shelter is at East Brent Baptist Church, 4801 N. Davis Highway in Pensacola. Residents should bring along their disaster kits, which include clothing, food and water and necessary supplies for any elderly or babies in the family.
The Escambia County Emergency Operations Center is at a Level II partial activation due to the flooding conditions in the county.
Gulf Power officials said today’s flooding conditions have caused only pockets of outages throughout south Escambia and that most if not all power should be restored by this evening.
Jeff Rogers, a Gulf Power spokesman, said there were no major outages and that the storm has caused only minor interruptions in service. There are scattered pockets ranging from 10 to 75 homes that have lost power.
He said crews are out repairing the lines now.
“Conditions are good for restoring power now,” he said about 1 p.m. today.
Keith Williams, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said that it will rain most of the weekend, with a 90 percent chance today, 80 percent chance tonight and a 70 percent chance tomorrow.
The National Weather Service has also released a flash flood warning until 8 p.m. today in south central Escambia County.
“It’s a serious situation, both in Pensacola and Mobile,” Williams said.
A homeowner near the Saufley Field Landfill said red clay is washing into Elcino Drive, south of Saufley Field Road.
Williams said that there’s a good possibility that the rain will continue through 7:30 p.m. today, when the Charlie Daniels concert is scheduled at the Community Maritime Park.
The concert is on hold, and all other grand opening events today at the Maritime Park have been canceled.
High to extreme amounts of moisture available too.
I hope all that rain holds together into N and Central GA, i would love to see 5-7 inches of rain all across GA.
Here in Navarre, the rain is steadily picking up in intensity. Power is out from Tiger Point (Gulf Breeze) Westward into Pensacola. By the looks of the radar, we're about to get hammered here. over the next few hours.
Edit: Just got downgraded to 5.8 by EMSC, USGS says 6.0
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082021ZJUN2012//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 082021). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 152.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
5.2N 150.2E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DIURNAL FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
DESPITE A STRONG (ALTHOUGH WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS)
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, A 091555Z AMSU-B PARTIAL 85 GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES A POORLY-DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND DYNAMIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT HAS BACKED OFF. A
090739Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWED A WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) ELONGATED
CIRCULATION (AS WELL AS THE UW-CIMSS 850MB VORTICITY PRODUCT).
ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH AT 1008 TO 1009 MB WITH WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOT)
WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE, DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD FLOW INTO A TUTT
CELL NEAR 17N 153E. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER GUAM, WHICH MAY HINDER FUTURE DEVELOPMENT.
THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CONSOLIDATED AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN
I see what you did there...
LOL--- $$$$$$$$$$$$$
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT SAT JUN 09 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 092053Z - 092230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING HOW SOON...BUT POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
23-00Z.
DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SLOWLY DEEPENING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ARE EVIDENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM A DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LARGE CAPE /MIXED LAYER ON THE ORDER OF 2500+ J PER KG/.
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INHIBITION PERSISTS...BUT LATEST RAPID REFRESH
SUGGESTS SUBTLE SIGNS OF AT LEAST AREAS OF WEAKENING...PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE LOW CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL COOLING APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG WARM SECTOR SHEAR...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR RAPID CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION AND THE EVOLUTION OF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ONCE CAPPING IS BROKEN.
THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS 23-00Z...WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE BECOME LARGE
AND CLOCKWISE CURVED NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE.
in pensacola, 12.99 was the last official report i remember, they probably are past the record now:
The 12.99 inches is now the second wettest day on record next to October 5th, 1934 when 15.29 inches of rain fell.
10427 Sorento Rd (Sorento Plaza) – Flooding businesses requesting barricades
New Warrington Spur not passable
Hunter Point Apartments Hwy 98 entrance is not passable
City of Gulf Breeze:
Gulf Breeze Parkway is down to one lane each direction throughout most of the city limits due to flooding.
Some flooding along residential streets.
Midway Area:
Reports of 4-5 feet of water standing on Redwood Dr.
Duke Dr. has reports of water up to cars in driveways.
Dear Lord, time for more xanax
Even if that were to happen, it'd be only partially self-insured. Federal flood insurance and various FEMA services will continue to strongly underwrite and subsize catastrophic coverage.
Well we've got quake of the day over in Taiwan, around a 6 at the moment just offshore.
I was just thinking if you get Chris there is going to be a lot of surplus water around in the south of the US.
Several areas of Escambia County are being flooded this afternoon, prompting Escambia County officials to declare a state of emerency as of 3 p.m. today.
Here is the latest news from the county:
• The National Weather Service is forecasting and additional 12 to 15 inches of rainfall between now and midnight Sunday night. This makes the total projected rain fall for this event between 20 and 30 inches.
• Residents living in low-lying areas and areas prone to flooding are encouraged to evacuate.
• Escambia County Emergency Management has activated its Citizen Information Line. Residents can call (850) 471-6600 for information.
Link
the earthquake was at a depth of 44 miles, so i dont think it was too bad for taiwan.
Heavy rain would be probably the greatest problem from chris if it hits around the pensacola mobile area, especially if the heavy rains continue inland as heavily as they have fallen near the shore.
i referenced this in post 1182
new storms brewing down south, look at the new t-storm bursts:
We live in the ridge and valley of Northeast PA. 4" of rain will bring the creek into my yard...so far we haven't been tested above 9" of rain in one storm. I am always horrified when I see 15" of rain, but I know that is southern tropical rain and far more than I might expect locally. Nowadays the only thing predictable about the weather is its unpredictability! Hey, that's the chaos theory isn't it?
Is the GOM storm tropical?
Yeah I had 2.03 yesterday, and just under 7 total since Tuesday. Perfect drought relief because we had 1 to 2 inches every day Tuesday through Friday. Having all 7 inches in one event with a drought in place doesn't allow as much of it to soak in.
No, it's completely Extratropical.. Sort of similar to those winter Gulf Lows, except it's happening in late spring.
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