Spring 2012 in the contiguous U.S. demolished the old records for hottest spring and most extreme season of any kind, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Thursday. With the warmest March, third warmest April, and second warmest May, the March - April - May spring season was 5.2°F above average--the largest temperature departure from average of any season on record for the contiguous United States. What's truly remarkable is the margin the old record was broken by--spring 2012 temperatures were a full 1°F above the previous most extreme season, the winter of 1999 - 2000. All-time seasonal temperature records are very difficult to break, and are usually broken by only a tenth of a degree. To see the old record crushed by a full degree is a stunning and unparalleled event in U.S. meteorological history.
Figure 1. Temperature rankings for spring 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Thirty-one states were record warm for the 3-month period, and an additional eleven states had top-ten warmth. Spring 2012 beat the previous record for hottest spring on record, set in 1910, by an remarkable 2°F. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
U.S. heat over the past 12 months: a one in half-a-million event
The U.S. record for hottest 12-month period fell for the second straight month in May. The June 2011 - May 2012 temperatures smashed the previous record by a startling 0.4°F, which is a huge margin to break a record by for a 1-year period. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Thirty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional ten states were top ten warm. Each of the 12 months from June 2011 through May 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895-present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 531,441. Thus, we should only see one more 12-month period so warm between now and 46,298 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as during the past 118 years. The unusual warmth was due, in part, to a La Niña event in the Pacific that altered jet stream patterns, keeping the polar jet stream much farther to the north than usual. However, it is highly unlikely that the extremity of the heat during the past 12 months could have occurred without a warming climate. Some critics have claimed that recent record warm temperatures measured in the U.S. are due to poor siting of a number of measurement stations. Even if true (and the best science we have says that these stations were actually reporting temperatures that were too cool), there is no way that measurement errors can account for the huge margin by which U.S. temperature records have been crushed during the past 12-month, 5-month, and 3-month periods.
Figure 2. Three of the top ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 3. The average temperature during January - May 2012 was the warmest on record: 5°F above the 20th century average for the period, and 1.3°F above the previous record set in 2000. January - May temperatures have been rising at about 1.8°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Second warmest May, warmest year-to-date period on record
May 2012 was the second warmest May in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Twenty-six states had a top-ten warmest May, and no states had a top-ten coolest May. The January - May 2012 period was the warmest January - May period since record keeping began in 1895, with temperatures 5°F above the 20th century average for the period. This broke the previous record set in 2000 by an unusually large margin--1.3°F.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March - April - May) shows that 2012 had the most extreme spring on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.
Most extreme spring and January - May period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the spring March - April - May period. This is more than twice the average value, and spring 2012 was the most extreme season of any kind in U.S. history. A list of the top five most extreme seasons since 1910, as computed using the CEI, show that two of the three most extreme seasons in U.S. history occurred in the past 12 months:
Spring 2012: 44%
Winter 1979: 42%
Summer 2011: 39%
Fall 1985: 39%
Spring 1934: 38%
Remarkably, 81% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during spring 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during spring was 18%, which was the 19th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were the 8th largest on record. The year-to-date January - May period was also the most extreme such period in U.S. history, with a CEI of 43%. Climate change theory predicts that, in general, the climate should warm, wet areas should get wetter, and dry areas should get drier. The spring 2012 Climate Extremes Index reflects this pattern.
Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. None of the computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic through June 15.
Jeff Masters
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 — Blog Index
Our wild dewberries and blackberries were also a full month ahead in ripening. Local strawberry and blueberry farmers reported that their berries were also early and yields were down slightly. Why is this a problem? For a small grower that means their marketing and advertising is off schedule and can lead to fewer customers and reduced income. It might just mean they don’t expand or it might mean they get out of the berries business. Maybe not a big deal on a local scale but if abnormal weather effects many different crops in many different regions, it means higher food costs and that effects the economy and your pocketbook.
And to make things even more interesting, the blossom and fruit set of several common vegetables can be affected by temperature. Tomato blossoms drop off without setting fruit when night temperatures fall below 55 degrees or day temperatures exceed 90 degrees for extended periods. Pepper blossom pollination and fruit set is reduced when night temperatures fall below 58 degrees and daytime temperatures rise above 85 degrees. Under these temperature conditions, the blossoms fall off, often before pollination. Intense heat (generally higher than 95 degrees) or water stress (under-watering) can cause beans and peas to drop their flowers. Corn is another vegetable adversely affected by high temperatures. The corn tassel (pollen producing part of the corn flower) is often killed when temperatures are above 100 degrees. Injury to the tassel will prevent development of kernels in the ear.
Sometimes the grower can try different varieties, irrigate more, etc to compensate, but it does go to show, we aren’t always aware of all the minute effects of higher temps.
Source: Link
I wonder what's happened to the real Drakoen. He must be off for the summer by now.
Haha. I wish the real Drak was on.
I think if it forms, which is probably about 60% likely at this point, it will track into south Florida or through the keys. Good afternoon by the way... I'm hoping for some storms today!
Sometimes that "smelly" comments are more pleasant to read than those that point out the "smelly" bloggers
I say both Drakoen and Levi.
Keep those amber waves of rain, over Florida. We need a few feet of steady, slow, rain. Two over two months would be perfect.
How'd you do that? Mine still says File Not Found.
Interesting when they go head to head.
I mean there certainly have been some areas of pretty have rain, but not as much as you might expect. Although radar estimates once again are about twice as low in many cases as actual amounts. Supposedly I've only had about a quarter of an inch according to radar, but I actually had nearly an inch today. Nearby at St. Petersburg/Clearwater International they have had over 1.25 but the radar estimate is only 0.5 there.
Tampa International has had around 0.8 and supposedly they have only had a trace according to radar estimates, my gosh its ridiculous how wrong they are lol, gotta love tropical moisture.
And yes, I just WISHCASTED a system away from Florida. I love the rain but my house is five feet above sea level and a tropical storm can generate enough surge to cause a lot of problems.
Right now there aren't any storms to track, however, so I guess that's why they aren't here...wouldn't be much to talk about except model speculation at this point. Hopefully drak and 456 do return at some point though
Is that storm moving from East to West?
Yes,those discussions between them are enlighting as both go to the science of things.
No, it's moving from southwest to northeast. :P
This would do much more good than harm...
True. I looked back at some early blogs and weather456 was also excellent. He and Drakoen are tops. Or they were before they left.
Would have to be north of Cape Coral/Ft. Myers, then; here in the Cape we have one heckuva shower curtain up! ;-P
Yes,456 is my neighbor in St Kitts and is also very capable of going toe to toe with Drak and Levi.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
250 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
FLC099-082045-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0032.120608T1850Z-120608T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
250 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LAKE WORTH...DELRAY BEACH...BOYNTON
BEACH...BOCA RATON...
* UNTIL 445 PM EDT
* AT 248 PM EDT DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH. VERY
HEAVY RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND MINOR FLOODING WAS
REPORTED IN BOYNTON BEACH. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF RAIN COULD
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT HOUR AND THIS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF
STREET AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.
TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
LAT...LON 2647 8005 2643 8005 2642 8006 2633 8006
2633 8007 2634 8021 2670 8016 2670 8003
2667 8003 2667 8004 2666 8004
$$
GARCIA
That drought has been surely but slowly creeping up on me, but this weekends 2-4 inches of rain should help.
A good 10 inches from a TS would almost get us out of the long term drought, and it should at least cause flooding problems, so i am rooting for chris.
One thing i notice is that on the models chris could be a potentially large system with a large windfield, which could slow development.
But then again there is a good chance it will pass over the loop current.
The Major Hurricanes of 2012 - Part One (January-April)
Well, Aric at S2k is the answer.
We have agreement by the two most reliable models that Chris will develop around the 18th in the southern GOM and then track in the general direction of the Florida panhandle.
All Systems Go, Cap'n!
P.S. That's really good agreement on almost everything from the high to the location and strength of the trough at 240 hours....
I hope chris goes up the panhandle of florida into S GA, because Beryl did not, and peach and peanut farmers in S GA are really suffering.
Dont forget to come to weather chat.
Viewing: 201 - 251
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 — Blog Index