Hurricane Carlotta bears down on Mexico's Pacific coast
Hurricane Carlotta has steadily intensified today as it heads northwest towards the Mexican coast east of Acapulco. Recent satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a prominent eye, solid eyewall with cold cloud-tops, and good low-level spiral banding. Carlotta may be undergoing rapid intensification, thanks to favorable sea surface temperatures near 30°C (86°F) and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. A hurricane hunter mission is en-route, and will arrive at the storm near 2pm EDT on Friday to see how strong Carlotta has become. Carlotta's rain bands have already moved over the coast of Mexico a few hundred miles east of Acapulco, as seen on Puerto Ánoel radar.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Carlotta.
Figure 2. Morning radar image of Carlotta from the Puerto Ánoel radar.
Forecast for Carlotta
Carlotta is likely to continue to strengthen as it approaches the western coast of Mexico east of Acapulco. As a large portion of the hurricane's circulation moves over the mountains of Mexico on Saturday morning, steady weakening should occur. Heavy rains from Carlotta will be the storm's main threat, and these rains will steadily progress westwards along the coast, arriving at Acapulco by Saturday morning. With rainfall amounts of 6 - 10 inches possible along the track of Carlotta, the potential for dangerous flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern all along the coast affected by Carlotta.
The Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The GFS model is predicting that some of the moisture and energy from Carlotta could move into the Gulf of Mexico next week and form a tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression, but this solution is unlikely.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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WAVEtrak Atlantic, CIMSS
According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm ofGuchol'sstrength (category 2)at landfall includes:
•Storm surge generally 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8 feet) above normal.
•Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings.
•Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down.
•Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers.
•Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the storm center.
•Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.
There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.
hope it a good day
i am having morning coffee here
slept in a little today
the c storm is a depression
don't those mountains work wunders
lets have a scan see what
i can find to do next
People of the Philippines have no idea how lucky they are right now. Guchol would of killed 100's and caused billions in peso's in destruction.
LOL
I personally think it will be stronger than this
The C storm is a depression?
Huh?
Link
keep just likes to think he controls it though.
All in jest,..
I hope.
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Typhoon "BUTCHOY" (GUCHOL)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Saturday, 16 June 2012 Typhoon "BUTCHOY" has maintained its strength as it continues to move in a North Northwest direction.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 430 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Coordinates: 15.2°N, 128.6°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 160 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 195 kph
Movement: Moving North Northwest at 20 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Sunday evening:
530 km East Southeast of Basco, Batanes
Monday evening:
600 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes or at
220 km South of Okinawa, Japan
Tuesday morning:
750 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes or
in the vicinity of Okinawa, Japan
No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised
Typhoon "Butchoy" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains over Luzon and Visayas especially over the western section which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15 - 25 mm per hour (heavy) within the 500 km diameter of the Typhoon.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Eastern Mindanao due to the big waves generated by the combined effects of Typhoon "Butchoy" and the Southwest Monsoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
Ah. Thanks
1002 CybrTeddy That's about a 117mph gust, pretty good for a Category 1 hurricane.
Cat.2 has MaximumSustainedWinds of 96to110mph(83to95knots)154to177kmh. Remarkably, HurricaneCarlotta maintained 90knot MaxSusWinds up its last position prior to landfall, and...
...remained a 70knot(81mph) Cat.1 as it passed by Pinotepa(PNO) ~4&1/2 hours after landfall.
The coastline dot SSWest of PUH is PortAngel, ~15miles(24kilometres) from H.Carlotta's path.
Copy&paste pno, pxm, puh, 14.5n96.2w-15.6n96.7w, 15.6n96.7w-16.4n97.9w, 15.6n96.7w-15.664n96.489w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information.
Quoting Ameister12:
It wouldn't be surprising at all if Guchol does begin an EWRC sometime soon.
People of the Philippines have no idea how lucky they are right now. Guchol would of killed 100's and caused billions in peso's in destruction.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 7501
the japs will be just as lucky lower ssts screaming shear await the g storm approach
by the time it gets to tokyo rose it will be nothing of its former self
Very true
Tokyo Rose?
me tinks you living inna Bad WW-2 Movie
We dont use those terms, well since the mid 50's last I checked.
just got a good eye
and some fancy computer screens
But try working on that punctuation issue.
Sometimes we havent a clue with all the run on stuff.
today pat
don't take it out
on me
iam just
the messenger
Well, I have Polish friends who amongst themselves refer to each other with the P-word, Jewish friends who amongst themselves refer to each other with the K-word, AfricanAmerican friends who amongst themselves...etc...
They'd still be mighty peeved if somebody*outside of their particular ethnic/religious/etc group referred to them that way.
* Including close friends, even though they usually won't mention it.
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