Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:31 GMT le 17 juin 2012 | +35 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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That is due to the trough that is attached to our non-tropical low being tagged at 10%, that is predicted to lift out. But, I have my doubts as to if shear will be low enough for anything major. No more than a weak TS if it where to become anything, in my opinion.
yeah funny they only mentioned the CMC and not the GFS?
I can remember (dating myself here) when the "poor kids" in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland brought lobster sandwiches and the "rich kids" brought peanut butter sandwiches to school.
Nowadays (and I do love this one) when a Nor'Easter blows that way, the lobster get tossed out of the ocean and the locals are down there with their green trash bags just scooping the lobster up. Fill up their freezers and no need for a license if they are on shore!
Post 405.I'm visiting Nova Scotia then!!!
Actually shear has steadily been decreasing in the W/C Caribbean.
Hey, I'm always nice to you!!! :)
We r watching it.
It's non tropical at the moment
Why use 500-850 mb?
And that's why I don't use the minus feature
000
ABNT20 KNHC 172331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
I wish that big blob south of the Dominican Republic would move NE and over me. But I guess wishing doesn't cut it.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 17 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
*lol* It's a wonderful place to visit! (Just pick your weather forecasts and you might luck in)
Now, down here in the Virgin Islands, I've got a very close eye on what's happening here in the tropics.
My bad.
18z GFS 850-200mb level. As you can tell, that is why I'm not too optimistic as to strength anything beyond 40mph.
http://www.meteo.an/Img_Sat.asp
Are you the CYBER POLICE?
Link
It's a very complex situation out there at the moment and sheer is not favorable at the moment in that region. Models gonna have a tough time reaching any consensus on this possibility.
I doubt it would be tropical and would have a hard time consolidating past a low pressure area.
The HWRF's resolution does decrease outside the inner nest, from 9km to 27km, and the boundary conditions are supplied to the model by the GFS.
It's a tropical wave with nothing else in the mix, why wouldn't it be tropical - just a sheared wave.
This.
Hey TA13, how's it going?
Can't see that happening within 60 hours.
Well the GFS clearly shows that the tropical wave axis follows the low-mid level flow straight into the western-central Gulf of Mexico. The new low in the Bahamas develops mostly of its own accord due to speed divergence aloft, with some instigation likely from the northeastern tip of the tropical wave, but the low is pretty much separate from the wave axis.
Wow. Not often you see a blue diamond on the prob chart. Usually elongoidals. Ovals or circles.
I think something will definitely attempt to. It will likely be too broad to become terribly strong though, which is good news if you like rain in the NW gulf.
I doubt we'll see a true tropical disturbance in the Bahamas like has been showing up on the models today. A low may form but non-tropically, and the focus of action should be in the west-central gulf, in my opinion.
guys, for those 56 who plussed me for my graduation and valedictorian speech, here is a picture a friend of my took during the ceremony... have a peek.
CLASS OF 2012
That's in Norwalk, CT
hope u like it :)
in the next few days it will pick up development again
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