Debby remains a raggedy-looking tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The hurricane hunter mission that ended around 1pm ET found a minimum central pressure of 995 mb and much weaker winds that it had found on previous missions. Despite Debby's less-than-organized appearance, the storm is still managing to dump buckets on Florida, and in particular today, the panhandle. A burst of thunderstorm activity has exploded on the northern side of Debby, and Tallahassee, Florida and it's southern neighbors are getting the worst of the storm's rain this afternoon as it rotates in place. Weather stations near Tallahassee have recorded anywhere from 2 to 9 inches of rain so far today. The strongest wind speeds reported from buoys are around 30 mph this afternoon. The storm's moisture is still confined to the north and east of the center, as a region of dry air continues to wrap in from the south and west. Visible satellite imagery illustrates just how dry Debby is on the southwest, as well as the strong thunderstorm activity that is expected to continue over Florida for the next couple of days. Debby has begun to create a bit of storm surge in the Apalachee Bay area, with reports from St. Marks, Florida that the storm surge has reached the town, though high tide is not for another 2 hours.
Figure 1. Monday afternoon visible satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Debby.
Figure 2. 5-day forecast rainfall from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Rainfall in excess of 15 inches is expected in northern Florida as Debby makes its slow way across the state and into the Atlantic.
Forecast for Debby
Debby continues to drift to the northeast this afternoon, a track that will continue, slowly, over the next couple of days, before it finally crosses Florida, which will likely happen Wednesday and Thursday of this week. The National Hurricane Center's 5pm forecast track is similar to the tracks from earlier today, though the timing has sped up a bit, with landfall occurring Wednesday afternoon. All of the models now agree that Debby will continue moving northeast and gradually turn to the east as it crosses over Florida into the Atlantic. In terms of intensity, the Hurricane Center is predicting that the storm will remain a storm through Wednesday, after which it will likely diminish to tropical depression status. Given the current state of the storm and the dry air that continues to wrap in, it's possible this could happen earlier than Wednesday. Interestingly, the GFDL is suggesting Debby could gain some strength as it crosses Florida, and the ECMWF's earlier run actually thinks Debby will rapidly intensify when it reaches the yet untapped warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic and tracks northeast. It's worth nothing that the ECMWF is the only model suggesting this intensity outcome, though all the models have a similar track. In any case, Debby will remain a rainmaker for the rest of the week, and some storm surge is possible, especially in the Big Bend. The SLOSH model, which predicts storm surge heights, suggests this area could see up to a 6 foot storm surge. The coastal flooding will be the worst in the Apalachee Bay region, where high tide occurs from around 7am to 9am EDT.
Angela
Tornado crossing Lk. Winterset in Winter Haven, Fl 6/24 8pm
Flooding On Anna Maria (
amapp)
This is my sister before the flooding got bad. She's sitting on top of a fire hydrant that's rapidly being swallowed up by the water!
A series of pictures of flooding in Pasco County Florida from the outer bands of Tropical Storm Debby. Exact locations in the EXIF
A series of pictures of flooding in Pasco County Florida from the outer bands of Tropical Storm Debby. Exact locations in the EXIF
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Hot, Humid and dry... So different from Sunday.
You can't fix stupid.
Is warming not only at Nino 3.4 but at Nino 1-2 and 3 as you can see in this tao graphic.
We live in the age of the absurd.
I'm not the most intresting man in the world or always right, but when i am, Grothar may approve.
Not sure why the BAM models are even included. They are always the outliers and never accurate.
Yes, he said that. I don't think it will, though, but enough to mention them in the same conversation.
some reports of over 30" in Wakulla county in less than 24 hours, already, and that moisture plume hasn't moved or waned over that area.
Yeah, like she's trying to pull herself back together and get all the layers stacked back up. Let's hope she doesn't.
I wanna see a Fujiwara.
It could i guess
that would not be good. I also hope she stays away from the loop current.
Oh, hadn't thought of that. Hmmm
Advisory 1: South Texas
Advisory 2: South Texas
Advisory 3: Southeast Louisiana
Advisory 4: Apalachicola
All within a span of 24 hours.
TS Ernesto?
The real question is, where will the majority of warming take place?
This has been the hardest storm to forecast
Convertible or sedan?
I am confused, WHY are the winds so high here so far from the center? It' blowing like crazy in Pinellas too.
They've always been higher to the SE with this system.
No.
It's the same thing as last night.
an afternoon thunderstorm complex fires over the Yucatan and then gets caught up the feeder band and dragged NE.
Look here: LSU ESL Low Clouds product
Because she's still sheared.
yea until the shear goes away its gonna struggle to get its act together
I just don't wanna see Isaac retired. Ever. Unfortunately, it's right up there with Hugo, Charley, Ivan, and Dennis. It carries the "I'm gonna **** your **** up" connotation. But it's such a cool name, it would be a shame to have it retired. :|
hmm, Rick Scott did something reasonable?
Not a fun record to be a part of, for sure. But it was one heck of a night and day to experience. I hope they don't get any closer, because they obviously don't need that. Did he mention Alvin at all?
GFS was showing some wacky things last week. Turns out most of them weren't so wacky. One that I actually examined in all levels split Debby, left the surface low behind that ended up moving SE and crossed FL around Sarasota. Just makes ya wonder.
The Dvorak technique is a satellite method used to estimate the intensity of tropical disturbances or cyclones. It takes into account things like shear patterns, curved band structures, eyes, etc. It is not used for ascertaining the strength of subtropical storms, because it relies on tropical convective processes for its effectiveness. This is also why it isn't as reliable for high-latitude systems, which aren't always classically tropical.
Incredible. This is close to an epic storm, and there's no real end in sight.
Look at wind barb off the east coast..
Some 70 mpg gusts ripped this apart in my backyard as a meso moved nearly right over me, the same cell that produced a tornado near St. Petersburg beach, I also have a video of that tornado:
The cell still carried a possible tornado literally a half mile east of me, this is the third time since last spring I've nearly been hit by a tornado. Yesterday that cell produced really powerful wind gusts here to 70 mph and my rain gauge recorded 1 inch in a staggering 5 to 7 minutes that the cell lasted over me for, amazingly heavy tropical rainfall.
That makes sense, it's scary to think that this is only a minimal tropical storm and already two major bridges in Pinellas closed, don't even want to think what a major would do to Pinellas and Tampa.
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