Debby remains a raggedy-looking tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The hurricane hunter mission that ended around 1pm ET found a minimum central pressure of 995 mb and much weaker winds that it had found on previous missions. Despite Debby's less-than-organized appearance, the storm is still managing to dump buckets on Florida, and in particular today, the panhandle. A burst of thunderstorm activity has exploded on the northern side of Debby, and Tallahassee, Florida and it's southern neighbors are getting the worst of the storm's rain this afternoon as it rotates in place. Weather stations near Tallahassee have recorded anywhere from 2 to 9 inches of rain so far today. The strongest wind speeds reported from buoys are around 30 mph this afternoon. The storm's moisture is still confined to the north and east of the center, as a region of dry air continues to wrap in from the south and west. Visible satellite imagery illustrates just how dry Debby is on the southwest, as well as the strong thunderstorm activity that is expected to continue over Florida for the next couple of days. Debby has begun to create a bit of storm surge in the Apalachee Bay area, with reports from St. Marks, Florida that the storm surge has reached the town, though high tide is not for another 2 hours.
Figure 1. Monday afternoon visible satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Debby.
Figure 2. 5-day forecast rainfall from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Rainfall in excess of 15 inches is expected in northern Florida as Debby makes its slow way across the state and into the Atlantic.
Forecast for Debby
Debby continues to drift to the northeast this afternoon, a track that will continue, slowly, over the next couple of days, before it finally crosses Florida, which will likely happen Wednesday and Thursday of this week. The National Hurricane Center's 5pm forecast track is similar to the tracks from earlier today, though the timing has sped up a bit, with landfall occurring Wednesday afternoon. All of the models now agree that Debby will continue moving northeast and gradually turn to the east as it crosses over Florida into the Atlantic. In terms of intensity, the Hurricane Center is predicting that the storm will remain a storm through Wednesday, after which it will likely diminish to tropical depression status. Given the current state of the storm and the dry air that continues to wrap in, it's possible this could happen earlier than Wednesday. Interestingly, the GFDL is suggesting Debby could gain some strength as it crosses Florida, and the ECMWF's earlier run actually thinks Debby will rapidly intensify when it reaches the yet untapped warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic and tracks northeast. It's worth nothing that the ECMWF is the only model suggesting this intensity outcome, though all the models have a similar track. In any case, Debby will remain a rainmaker for the rest of the week, and some storm surge is possible, especially in the Big Bend. The SLOSH model, which predicts storm surge heights, suggests this area could see up to a 6 foot storm surge. The coastal flooding will be the worst in the Apalachee Bay region, where high tide occurs from around 7am to 9am EDT.
Angela
Tornado crossing Lk. Winterset in Winter Haven, Fl 6/24 8pm
Flooding On Anna Maria (
amapp)
This is my sister before the flooding got bad. She's sitting on top of a fire hydrant that's rapidly being swallowed up by the water!
A series of pictures of flooding in Pasco County Florida from the outer bands of Tropical Storm Debby. Exact locations in the EXIF
A series of pictures of flooding in Pasco County Florida from the outer bands of Tropical Storm Debby. Exact locations in the EXIF
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Tropical Wave.
It's used to map the wind speeds and pressures.
They can estimate the pressure to a margin of error of about +/- 7mb based on wind speed, and they can estimate wind speed by watching the clouds move around the center of the storm and just sort of using some geometry and timing how far a cloud moves from frame to frame.
The satellite actually takes a picture a lot more often than what you see published on the internet public sites, so they are able to get very accurate wind speed measurements, which is why they already know the surface winds to within certain margins of error for typical storms.
It's not so useful for storms that aren't vertically stacked, because the convection is off to one side, but you can still measure the cloud speed inside the circulation.
Call me cynical but notice that he only called a state of emergency AFTER Tallahassee was directly affected.
...just sayin'...
I agree with the blend between 2002 and 2004. I go with something like 14-7-3.
Yeah just watch out for Hurricane Leslie though. If she's anything like my wife, She'll be one sexy, good looking, extremely mean storm lol.
With very little certainty, I am going to say no.
... A Flash Flood Warning remains in effect until 1115 PM EDT for northeastern Franklin... Wakulla and southeastern Liberty counties...
... A flash flood emergency continues for Wakulla County...
At 853 PM EDT... emergency management reported very serious and extreme flash flooding across Wakulla County. County officials are having a hard time assessing the extent of the damage due to the inability to travel.
Locations in the warning include but are not limited to Crawfordville.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
Several inches of additional rainfall are possible across Wakulla County over the next few hours.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. If flash flooding is observed act quickly. Move up to higher ground to escape flood waters. Do not stay in areas subject to flooding when water begins rising.
;)
I'll have to disagree with you here...I am in western Pasco County, and had to travel to Sarasota on business.....had never been over the Skyway, and took that route...well, lemme tell ya, it is NOT a walk in the park going up that bridge. My heart rate went through the roof, and stayed there till I got to the other side....On the return trip home, I opted to go around the east side of Tampa and back up north to avoid it....
I'm sorry dude. I honestly thought you were someone else. A well known troll. Sorry for the comment.
Now at 31.9" of rain and counting south of Tallahassee. WOW.
A decent Tropical Wave that may bring needed rain for some of the islands in the Eastern Caribbean as June has been dry.
if is weak el nino maybe will be the case
Potentially deadly situation. Sopchoppy River expected to crest at 41 feet in the next 12 hours. This is 10 feet above the record crest. Houses in Sopchoppy already flooded. Take Action Now!
wouldn't the position of those two highs act to kind of wind up Debby?
just based on the direction lows vs. highs spin, I would think it would...
vary funny am did not make a new name am still and all way be taz on here
I was out by the beach a couple hours ago, it was frequently gusting 50 to 60 mph, and sustained 40 to 45 mph. It's amazing.
What is really weird is that the NWS is forecasting like 8 inches of rain the next few more days but it seems like they are behind the 8 ball, yesterday the official forecast was literally 1 to 2 inches of rain, but now that they are forecasting high totals for some reason Debby has changed structure and isn't producing hardly any rain on the west coast of Florida now. Don't get me wrong we have had more than enough rain peoples houses are flooded so I'm not complaining I'm just surprised. I realize Debby is very slow moving but forecasts need to be inline with what's really going on. If there were still plenty of heavy bands rotating out there in the gulf I would believe it but rain coverage in the eastern gulf has steadily decreased all day.
One thing that isn't dying is wind though, we are getting consistent gusts into the 40's occasionally 50 to 55 mph and sustained 30 to 35 mph.
I don't even get why we are seeing so much wind this far away from a weak tropical storm.
As she drifts south, she continues to get in warmer water
I don't trust this guy.
LSU ESL Low Clouds Gulf Coast close up
Look at the low level convection, the CoC is inside that, with the "black" being the higher convection in the NE quadrant.
Transitions to Modoki. I mentioned this three weeks ago. :P
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
WAKULLA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
913 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
WAKULLA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THERE IS A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND LOCATIONS
NEAR RIVERS...STREAMS...AND CREEKS IN WAKULLA COUNTY. A SHELTER
HAS BEEN OPENED AT THE CRAWFORDVILLE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 379
ARRAN ROAD.PEOPLE WHO DECIDE TO EVACUATE LOW LYING AREAS SHOULD USE EXTREME
CAUTION...AND SHOULD NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. OTHERWISE...
TRAVEL ACROSS WAKULLA COUNTY IS NOT ADVISED. NUMEROUS ROADS ARE
UNDER WATER...SEVERAL FEET DEEP IN SOME LOCATIONS.
A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT AND IF YOU SEE RAPIDLY
RISING WATER YOU SHOULD SEEK HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY!
$$
08
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Agree with your forecast comment, they seem to be way off. Very little rain this afternoon (hooray!) and LOTS of wind. It felt today more like the typical "day after" the storm.
Nino 1+2 predicted to absolutely plummet. Might be unrealistic given how sharp the downward turn is.
Nino 3 also to decrease, more gradually.
Nino 4 predicted weak-moderate El Nino
Viewing: 701 - 751
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