Debby remains a raggedy-looking tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The hurricane hunter mission that ended around 1pm ET found a minimum central pressure of 995 mb and much weaker winds that it had found on previous missions. Despite Debby's less-than-organized appearance, the storm is still managing to dump buckets on Florida, and in particular today, the panhandle. A burst of thunderstorm activity has exploded on the northern side of Debby, and Tallahassee, Florida and it's southern neighbors are getting the worst of the storm's rain this afternoon as it rotates in place. Weather stations near Tallahassee have recorded anywhere from 2 to 9 inches of rain so far today. The strongest wind speeds reported from buoys are around 30 mph this afternoon. The storm's moisture is still confined to the north and east of the center, as a region of dry air continues to wrap in from the south and west. Visible satellite imagery illustrates just how dry Debby is on the southwest, as well as the strong thunderstorm activity that is expected to continue over Florida for the next couple of days. Debby has begun to create a bit of storm surge in the Apalachee Bay area, with reports from St. Marks, Florida that the storm surge has reached the town, though high tide is not for another 2 hours.
Figure 1. Monday afternoon visible satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Debby.
Figure 2. 5-day forecast rainfall from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Rainfall in excess of 15 inches is expected in northern Florida as Debby makes its slow way across the state and into the Atlantic.
Forecast for Debby
Debby continues to drift to the northeast this afternoon, a track that will continue, slowly, over the next couple of days, before it finally crosses Florida, which will likely happen Wednesday and Thursday of this week. The National Hurricane Center's 5pm forecast track is similar to the tracks from earlier today, though the timing has sped up a bit, with landfall occurring Wednesday afternoon. All of the models now agree that Debby will continue moving northeast and gradually turn to the east as it crosses over Florida into the Atlantic. In terms of intensity, the Hurricane Center is predicting that the storm will remain a storm through Wednesday, after which it will likely diminish to tropical depression status. Given the current state of the storm and the dry air that continues to wrap in, it's possible this could happen earlier than Wednesday. Interestingly, the GFDL is suggesting Debby could gain some strength as it crosses Florida, and the ECMWF's earlier run actually thinks Debby will rapidly intensify when it reaches the yet untapped warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic and tracks northeast. It's worth nothing that the ECMWF is the only model suggesting this intensity outcome, though all the models have a similar track. In any case, Debby will remain a rainmaker for the rest of the week, and some storm surge is possible, especially in the Big Bend. The SLOSH model, which predicts storm surge heights, suggests this area could see up to a 6 foot storm surge. The coastal flooding will be the worst in the Apalachee Bay region, where high tide occurs from around 7am to 9am EDT.
Angela
Tornado crossing Lk. Winterset in Winter Haven, Fl 6/24 8pm
Flooding On Anna Maria (
amapp)
This is my sister before the flooding got bad. She's sitting on top of a fire hydrant that's rapidly being swallowed up by the water!
A series of pictures of flooding in Pasco County Florida from the outer bands of Tropical Storm Debby. Exact locations in the EXIF
A series of pictures of flooding in Pasco County Florida from the outer bands of Tropical Storm Debby. Exact locations in the EXIF
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Nino 1+2 predicted to absolutely plummet. Might be unrealistic given how sharp the downward turn is.
Nino 3 also to decrease, more gradually.
Nino 4 predicted weak-moderate El Nino
RISING WATER YOU SHOULD SEEK HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY!
well...
duh...
Yes, rain. It rained today, I got 0.11 inches add the amazing amount of 0.03 inches that had fallen since the first of June and so far in my area (Carolina,PR) we have gotten 0.14 inches of rain in June. :|
A normal month is around 3.50 inches.
RISING WATER YOU SHOULD SEEK HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY!
Not too often you see that wording...
I just miss Storm Alert.
We knew stuff was going down anytime we were in SA.
I think so too but still, wind is downright violent by the beach, I could barely stand out there and sand was blown into places I didn't want, it was gusting out there over 60 at times. I'm sure the pressure gradient is some of but it's really crazy either way.
Anyways though, maybe the high rain chances is the eventual expectation of Debby to mix out the dry air aloft and eventually just produce a lot more rain again around here. We'll see with time. It certainly could happen.
Then again I might be speaking too soon. There is a probably a reason most models are increasingly showing really heavy precip totals for our area with more recent runs. I often do speak to soon, lol.
It's not a "duh" for some people though. Otherwise, they wouldn't use that kind of wording.
Yeah, just don't expect to see that one used very often. Definitely grabbed my attention...
Nothing really over the water.
I was also out on Indian Rocks beach, wow! FLWeatherFreak91 said earlier that we are in the main inflow channel to the center and that's why we got these crazy winds. Makes sense?
I got a brief shower this afternoon in Santurce. It also has been above normally warm with 25 onsecutive days of 90+ in San Juan.
"Now it's just a shell of what she once was.."
Yeah, but i was talking about that heavy rain band parked up south of tally.
Storm Alert might come back....we just havent had a major landfall since 08.....i have heard they have retired it but idk because that would kill the ratings if they did do away with it.
This is why Mitch killed so many people. Stupid band just sit on your for a week dumping rain by the feet I guess.
Fortunately, Florida doesn't have that sort of topography to make a 20ft wall of inland flood waters rush down a valley somewhere.
She may be trying to fix out that dry air, with that moisture coming from the SW.
Ah yes, the 90s, at least it stayed in the low 90s today, once it passes 95F it gets incredibly uncomfortable. Sad to see the rain chance dropped to 10% tomorrow and with that big SAL mass moving towards us I doubt we will see rain again for awhile.
That wave at 30w better fire up while it is passing through the area. XD
Watch it flare up after passing the area. :)
:-) i feel silly asking questions but i wont know the answer til i do!
Forecasters calling for an inch of rain per hour overnight for Jacksonville area. Black Creek in Clay County is above flood stage and may reach highest levels in recorded history tomorrow. Shelter has been opened for evacuees.
This is how I would feel if that happened. Link
(Better link it, don't want to go off topic.)
ah-thanks!!!
Poof is a fancy way of saying "You're an idiot and not worth my time." It's another term for the ignore list.
I'm right under these thunderstorms moving southeast in North Carolina... it's pretty strong tonight comparing to typical afternoon storms.
Appreciate the education. :)
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