Debby remains a raggedy-looking tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The hurricane hunter mission that ended around 1pm ET found a minimum central pressure of 995 mb and much weaker winds that it had found on previous missions. Despite Debby's less-than-organized appearance, the storm is still managing to dump buckets on Florida, and in particular today, the panhandle. A burst of thunderstorm activity has exploded on the northern side of Debby, and Tallahassee, Florida and it's southern neighbors are getting the worst of the storm's rain this afternoon as it rotates in place. Weather stations near Tallahassee have recorded anywhere from 2 to 9 inches of rain so far today. The strongest wind speeds reported from buoys are around 30 mph this afternoon. The storm's moisture is still confined to the north and east of the center, as a region of dry air continues to wrap in from the south and west. Visible satellite imagery illustrates just how dry Debby is on the southwest, as well as the strong thunderstorm activity that is expected to continue over Florida for the next couple of days. Debby has begun to create a bit of storm surge in the Apalachee Bay area, with reports from St. Marks, Florida that the storm surge has reached the town, though high tide is not for another 2 hours.
Figure 1. Monday afternoon visible satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Debby.
Figure 2. 5-day forecast rainfall from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Rainfall in excess of 15 inches is expected in northern Florida as Debby makes its slow way across the state and into the Atlantic.
Forecast for Debby
Debby continues to drift to the northeast this afternoon, a track that will continue, slowly, over the next couple of days, before it finally crosses Florida, which will likely happen Wednesday and Thursday of this week. The National Hurricane Center's 5pm forecast track is similar to the tracks from earlier today, though the timing has sped up a bit, with landfall occurring Wednesday afternoon. All of the models now agree that Debby will continue moving northeast and gradually turn to the east as it crosses over Florida into the Atlantic. In terms of intensity, the Hurricane Center is predicting that the storm will remain a storm through Wednesday, after which it will likely diminish to tropical depression status. Given the current state of the storm and the dry air that continues to wrap in, it's possible this could happen earlier than Wednesday. Interestingly, the GFDL is suggesting Debby could gain some strength as it crosses Florida, and the ECMWF's earlier run actually thinks Debby will rapidly intensify when it reaches the yet untapped warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic and tracks northeast. It's worth nothing that the ECMWF is the only model suggesting this intensity outcome, though all the models have a similar track. In any case, Debby will remain a rainmaker for the rest of the week, and some storm surge is possible, especially in the Big Bend. The SLOSH model, which predicts storm surge heights, suggests this area could see up to a 6 foot storm surge. The coastal flooding will be the worst in the Apalachee Bay region, where high tide occurs from around 7am to 9am EDT.
Angela
Tornado crossing Lk. Winterset in Winter Haven, Fl 6/24 8pm
Flooding On Anna Maria (
amapp)
This is my sister before the flooding got bad. She's sitting on top of a fire hydrant that's rapidly being swallowed up by the water!
A series of pictures of flooding in Pasco County Florida from the outer bands of Tropical Storm Debby. Exact locations in the EXIF
A series of pictures of flooding in Pasco County Florida from the outer bands of Tropical Storm Debby. Exact locations in the EXIF
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Imagine Debby being your first storm to predict!
So have you finally settled on specializing in tropical weather? Earlier this year you were saying you didn't know if you wanted to specialize in severe weather, winter weather, or tropical weather.
I want to be part of the Hurricane Specialist Unit. Maybe I'll ask James on facebook how to get there (what classes to take, best college to go to, etc).
Also, not a lot of "higher ground" in Florida to get to.
Tallahassee has some hills as does Ocala, but most of the state is pretty flat.
I want to do that as well. Maybe we'll be coworkers!
I guess that combined with the pressure gradient, well either way its crazy. I'm pretty sure winds are stronger in the eastern gulf and Pinellas Coast then the center lol. I think we are getting worse winds around here then Beryl ever muster as a 70 mph tropical storm.
I agree. I wish they were back. I also miss(from way back) Charlie Welsh, John Hope, Marny Stanier, Bob Stokes, Lisa Spancer, Janetta Jones, and Jill Brown. I wonder where they all are these days?
NCSU or FSU.
In other words, I think you, being on the western side of the storm, will receive very little in the way of significant weather.
Great program! It has expanded quite a bit since I graduated. (2005)
govt response will lack if there were enough one person delegated to each city in the united states because of stupid paper work, but it helps if the govt first hand gets affected and in this case i think some of them will actually "Get it" this time down in tallahasse
I want to try Florida State as well (in fact, I'm considering applying soon). Now we just seem stalkerish...
Como estas amigo?
Kind of funny that you knew immediately that I was talking about you.
I agree. I wish they were back. I also miss(from way back) Charlie Welsh, John Hope, Marny Stanier, Bob Stokes, Lisa Spancer, Janetta Jones, and Jill Brown. I wonder where they all are these days?
Link
Can you wait two years? Lol.
I'm really surprised how windy it is and its increasing according to wind observations.
Thank you so much. I have a number of adopted kids, some of whom are handicapped and always need to prepare a little more than most.
Well, John has been dead...a while.
They didn't close state offices, we were all there today...
Getting ready to exercise our Continuity of Operations Plans (COOP)...
My unit has 17 people, and we only had one out due to daycare coverage.
Take cover....
Now twisters and flooding are the ones to watch...
All it takes is one that lingers.
Those who prepared come June 1 are better off today, than a whole lot who did not.
I'm in Jax, just west of the ditch (Intercoastal), and it's coming down pretty good and not expected to stop. I work in Clay County, so getting to work will be interesting.
I feel for you people in Florida, to think there might be several more days of this weather.
You're what, 15? You so you do wanna stalk me. STALKER!
Debby will move south, then southeast, then east.
Split? Are you saying the southern part is splitting? I hope I got it wrong. Debbie is more than enough.
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