Debby remains a raggedy-looking tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The hurricane hunter mission that ended around 1pm ET found a minimum central pressure of 995 mb and much weaker winds that it had found on previous missions. Despite Debby's less-than-organized appearance, the storm is still managing to dump buckets on Florida, and in particular today, the panhandle. A burst of thunderstorm activity has exploded on the northern side of Debby, and Tallahassee, Florida and it's southern neighbors are getting the worst of the storm's rain this afternoon as it rotates in place. Weather stations near Tallahassee have recorded anywhere from 2 to 9 inches of rain so far today. The strongest wind speeds reported from buoys are around 30 mph this afternoon. The storm's moisture is still confined to the north and east of the center, as a region of dry air continues to wrap in from the south and west. Visible satellite imagery illustrates just how dry Debby is on the southwest, as well as the strong thunderstorm activity that is expected to continue over Florida for the next couple of days. Debby has begun to create a bit of storm surge in the Apalachee Bay area, with reports from St. Marks, Florida that the storm surge has reached the town, though high tide is not for another 2 hours.
Figure 1. Monday afternoon visible satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Debby.
Figure 2. 5-day forecast rainfall from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Rainfall in excess of 15 inches is expected in northern Florida as Debby makes its slow way across the state and into the Atlantic.
Forecast for Debby
Debby continues to drift to the northeast this afternoon, a track that will continue, slowly, over the next couple of days, before it finally crosses Florida, which will likely happen Wednesday and Thursday of this week. The National Hurricane Center's 5pm forecast track is similar to the tracks from earlier today, though the timing has sped up a bit, with landfall occurring Wednesday afternoon. All of the models now agree that Debby will continue moving northeast and gradually turn to the east as it crosses over Florida into the Atlantic. In terms of intensity, the Hurricane Center is predicting that the storm will remain a storm through Wednesday, after which it will likely diminish to tropical depression status. Given the current state of the storm and the dry air that continues to wrap in, it's possible this could happen earlier than Wednesday. Interestingly, the GFDL is suggesting Debby could gain some strength as it crosses Florida, and the ECMWF's earlier run actually thinks Debby will rapidly intensify when it reaches the yet untapped warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic and tracks northeast. It's worth nothing that the ECMWF is the only model suggesting this intensity outcome, though all the models have a similar track. In any case, Debby will remain a rainmaker for the rest of the week, and some storm surge is possible, especially in the Big Bend. The SLOSH model, which predicts storm surge heights, suggests this area could see up to a 6 foot storm surge. The coastal flooding will be the worst in the Apalachee Bay region, where high tide occurs from around 7am to 9am EDT.
Angela
Tornado crossing Lk. Winterset in Winter Haven, Fl 6/24 8pm
Flooding On Anna Maria (
amapp)
This is my sister before the flooding got bad. She's sitting on top of a fire hydrant that's rapidly being swallowed up by the water!
A series of pictures of flooding in Pasco County Florida from the outer bands of Tropical Storm Debby. Exact locations in the EXIF
A series of pictures of flooding in Pasco County Florida from the outer bands of Tropical Storm Debby. Exact locations in the EXIF
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If that's the case then the storm has actually moved about 3 or 4 tenths south...
The main rain band is actually expanding westwards on the radar presentation, which refreshes much faster and more often than the public satellite products.
Tallahassee Radar
about 24 miles SE from last fix
I wonder if it'll gain enough distance to actually try to develop. It's 2012, this wacky season can do whatever it wants.
Looks like the pilot been drinking.
Looking at some of those wind barbs...it looks like they may have just missed missed the center on the drop and may be relocating it. Keep posting these images if you are up...I don't have access to them bout would love to see them
Might be a good thing for the worst effected areas if it moves some that way.
Maybe it will pull that rain band back off shore and give them some break for the flooding to come down.
If it went SW that would suck, because it still has the whole length of the band there anyway.
================================================= =
From the National Weather Service:
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
959 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
SOPCHOPPY RIVER NEAR SOPCHOPPY AFFECTING WAKULLA COUNTY
.EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
RAPID RISES ON THE SOPCHOPPY RIVER...AND ASSOCIATED CREEKS AND STREAMS IN
WAKULLA COUNTY. THE SOPCHOPPY RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 11 FEET IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS...OR APPROXIMATELY ONE FOOT PER HOUR...AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION AND PEOPLE ALONG THE SOPCHOPPY RIVER NEED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE AND URGENT
ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE AND URGENT
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
SITUATION NOT COMPARABLE TO PREVIOUS EVENTS. JUST BECAUSE YOU DID NOT RECEIVE
FLOODING IN PAST EVENTS DOES NOT MEAN YOU ARE IMMUNE IN THIS CASE. DO NOT DRIVE
CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND
DO NOT DROWN.
&&
FLC129-270159-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120628T0111Z/
/SOPF1.3.ER.120625T2259Z.120626T1130Z.120627T1911 Z.UU/
959 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE SOPCHOPPY RIVER NEAR SOPCHOPPY
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 8:00 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR AND RECORD FLOODING AROUND 41 FEET IS
FORECAST.
* THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 28.0 FEET.
(click to enlarge)
SITUATION NOT COMPARABLE TO PREVIOUS EVENTS.
That's what happens when you get 3 to 5 per hour for an entire day.
That's flippin ridiculous for an area so close to the coast to have a river rise 1ft per hour from freshwater flooding...
The Sopchoppy River in Wakulla County,FL is expected to crest at 41'. Thats 10' above the record flood stage!
There is a large amount of upper/mid level windshear that has been caused by an upper level low around the west gulf of mexico... it has managed to train dry air into the system's core
That made me shiver, nothing like listening to the wind whistling outside and thinking that 30 mph is a light breeze compared to what this monster did.
BREAKING UPDATE: Firefighters blocked from getting to house fire by flooding, #alligator -- NOW: http://bit.ly/Lx7jJo #Debby #flwx #Pasco
She says she used to dabble a little in the weather herself..
Oh?
Yes. Releasing dropsondes into TC(s)...
OH!
This happened last night at approximately the same time, Dmin. It appeared as if the mid level circulation moved, but it didn't. It was an illusion.
The land cools after sunset. That's what we're seeing now.
FLOODED IN RECENT MEMORY WILL FLOOD TONIGHT."
Sadly some people will probably die tonight and have no idea why it happened.
http://www.wctv.tv/home/headlines/LIVE_BLOG_Tropi cal_Storm_Debby_160223725.html
Similar situation in the best estimate multisensor estimates from Southeast River Forecast Center.... over 20" near Crawfordville in just the last 12hrs. Even for the gulf coast, that is easily breaking the 100yr/1% storm (in terms of rainfall) for a 12hr duration.
We've had quite a number of these high-end hydro events lately, I'm starting to lose track...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/
The east side has the entire peninsula in the way, so the inflow air moves over land and doesn't do much.
The place where the heavy rain is happening is sort of a boundary that the moisture of the eastern feeder bands which are OVER WATER are being wrung out on land.
the mid levels and low levels aren't perfectly stacked, and the low level moisture is sort of ramming up under the mid levels at a different angle of approach, and wringing out the moisture. Though this isn't happening as badly as it was 3 to 6 hours ago, the rainfall rates have been cut roughly in half since mid evening.
the effected areas sort of had mid level moisture coming in from the east, and low level moisture coming in straight out of the south, but the bands out of the south have struggled a bit with dry air in the past 3 hours or so, this is why the rainfall rates have dropped off a bit, but they are still 1 to 2 inches per hour on land and a bit higher just off shore.
Looks like the period of record for that gauge might be rather short, however. Still substantial and with rainfall amounts easily exceeding the 100yr/1% event, the flooding potential should not be taken lightly.
Update: According to the USGS info on that gauge, it appears that the gauge may have been in continuous operation since 1964. There have been other crests that the NWS in Tallahassee appears to have left off of their AHPS page for that location, which made it seem like the period of record was shorter. USGS data also seems to indicate a crest of 34.3ft in 2000, which would be higher than the ~31ft crest currently being assumed as record.
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/fl/nwis/uv/?site_no=023 27100
Yeah, but that was like 30 hours ago, and has little to do with the dryness on the east side right now...
The alligator part is funny though...
Wow!
Eh? That's a 850mb vort what does the land cooling after sunset has to do with it?
Sure it's an extremely dangerous situation but cussing isn't necessary.
The whole of northern Florida is so soaked it's going to act like a shallow lake.
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