Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Grothar I expect a blog from you...

Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm predicting at least a T.D out of this area.I'll eat crow if it doesn't pass.

I see Grothar is in the house :).

A robust call :-).

Low odds on that though IMO

What the heck!?! Debby is determined to do it her way as long as it doesn't mean she has to go west :) Gro you will have people sitting at your feet with the next storm, good forecasting job, keep your tools sharp we will need you again!

Quoting charlottefl:
Well if you look at the radar real close. I think interaction with land has caused the storm to tighten up a bit cause in the last 15 frames or so the broad LLC has shrunk quite a bit...

Appears Due South with a slight east component.

91P looks good other late season storm?

Quoting kmanislander:


I assume you mean this one ?. The OSCAT pass is from 1400 this morning but quite impressive and nearly mid way across at a low lat. Not surprised it is being watched. I would have to check the forecast shear etc. but for this early in the season quite potent.

Biggest developmental impediment right now seems to be SAL...

Debbie is over our house in central Citrus County, Fl. right now. 10:30 EDT. Now at 14.50 inches since the start. Pressure at 29.58 and rising. Clearly moving south.

Winds are picking up in the upper keys, should of been calming down. So checked radar, Debby. SSE really! Is that right?

Quoting waterskiman:
Winds are picking up in the upper keys, should of been calming down. So checked radar, SSE really! Is that right?

Yeah.. This is the Opposite of Fay.. Lmao...

Quoting washingtonian115:
Grothar I expect a blog from you...

I will be leaving on Thursday for an extended time. I do not believe I will have time to do one. I may be able to drop in for only a few minutes at a time. I promise that if I see anything interesting I will try.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Biggest developmental impediment right now seems to be SAL...

I agree with that.

Hey, groth, as somebody very unlikely to leave for a long period this summer, I'll try to keep ur seat warm 4 u....

There's no End to Debby..... She will do what ever she wants to do and Florida is the Target this time..... Sorry Guys....

Taco :o)

Quoting Tazmanian:
91P looks good other late season storm?

Water at the coordinates you gave appears to be about a degree above average, well, on the south side anyway. Probably half a degree above average in the entire region.

Hey, pottery.... looks like u guys have dried out some.

596. BahaHurican 9:24 PM EST on June 26, 2012

And therein lies the problem. If Debby had spun up in the BOC, Texas would have been on the cards. The trough that spawned Debby had an elongated low pressure area stretching from the GOM all the way down to the SW coast of the Yucatan. Consolidation occurred on the NW tip of the Yucatan but shear forced the low to reposition to the NE and after that Texas was essentially out of the equation taking into account the upper level pattern and the N/S orientation of the plains ridge which served to block any motion to the West.

A slavish adherence to models was the downfall of the forecast track in the face of the short term pattern that never really changed over a 36 hours period even though several models called for change.

I do not discount models at all but I also do not ignore what I see in real time.

NHC might have to completely change their forecast cone again. Debby is determined to not play nice. I think it's either or for Debby, she catches the monster body of energy and storms and becomes a hurricane; possibly heading back west, or she limps out, the energy moves NE and escapes and Debby dies.

Quoting RTSplayer:


Water at the coordinates you gave appears to be about a degree above average, well, on the south side anyway. Probably half a degree above average in the entire region.

ok

Quoting kmanislander:
596. BahaHurican 9:24 PM EST on June 26, 2012

And therein lies the problem. If Debby had spun up in the BOC, Texas would have been on the cards. The trough that spawned Debby had an elongated low pressure area stretching from the GOM all the way down to the SW coast of the Yucatan. Consolidation occurred on the NW tip of the Yucatan but shear forced the low to reposition to the NE and after that Texas was essentially out of the equation taking into account the upper level pattern and the N/S orientation of the plains ridge which served to block any motion to the West.

A slavish adherence to models was the downfall of the forecast track in the face of the short term pattern that never really changed over a 36 hours period even though several models called for change.

I do not discount models at all but I also do not ignore what I see in real time.

How do you feel about Debby's SSE/S Movement? No one predicted that.

Quoting BrickellBreeze:


What does this mean? }:/

It is just that it is highly unusual to see a front that stron that far South when it is almost July. There is also very high heat content in it. Even though it is dry air, it can affect Debby (Debbie, Debbi, Debis) in some very odd ways. I really haven't had time to look at it closely.

from facebook

Bryan Norcross
Debby is still misbehaving... in terms of its track. Ever since it made landfall it appears to be moving SSE along the coast, and is involved with what essentially is a cold front/dry line moving south across the state. The incredible rains have been focused on this line the last couple of days. It doesn't look like there will be much left of Debby's circulation by morning, though these things are hard to gauge. The bottom line is, the extreme weather threat is rapidly diminishing, though some gusty winds and downpours are still possible.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, pottery.... looks like u guys have dried out some.

A little...
Half inch today. Sporadic showers.
Inch and a half yesterday.
Ground is not drying out at all.
Weeds are loving this...

Hi pottery, I am cheering for the wave not to develop but to bring the NE Caribbean some needed rain as June has been very dry around these islands. Here in Puerto Rico many forest fires have occured with the combination of dry and very warm weather this month.

Quoting Grothar:


It is just that it is highly unusual to see a front that stron that far South when it is almost July. There is also very high heat content in it. Even though it is dry air, it can affect Debby (Debbie, Debbi, Debis) in some very odd ways. I really haven't had time to look at it closely.

She is moving into Warmer Waters.

Quoting westpalmer:

Due South...

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi pottery, I am cheering for the wave not to develop but to bring the NE Caribbean some needed rain as June has been very dry around these islands. Here in Puerto Rico many forest fires have occured.

Really sorry to hear that.
Hope you get some rain soon, then.

Here, it has never stopped all year.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm predicting at least a T.D out of this area.I'll eat crow if it doesn't pass.

I see Grothar is in the house :).

Me too if not I am eating crow like you but I expect a 40mph ts of this.

Quoting westpalmer:

I've been a lurker more or less since back then and remember the folks you are mentioning here.  Brings back good memories.  Do you remember when photos or icons could be added and a directive was given to put a photo of yourself up as your icon?  Didn't last long for obvious reasons.

Well, nobody sent me that memo obviously :)

CENTER OF DEBBY TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO RESUME AN
EASTWARD MOTION LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 82.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ESE OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

I'm inside of Debby's center!!! Tampa shield fail

Quoting kmanislander:


I agree with that. Unfortunately the past two days were very busy for me and after Debby stalled near the panhandle I figured there would be lots of time to check back in :-)

Typically though a system near 8 N takes a long time to spin up as the Coriolis effect works best closer to 10 N and higher, particularly early in the season.

This image shows a nice circular vorticity signature.

Kmans is very correct in that statement. It is unusual for a storm to form below 9 deg. The only one I can remember was, I believe Isidore. (don't recall the year) But that was an exception. The high in the Atlantic is staying very far South. It would move systems along west but if they are too low, the odds are against them.

Quoting BrickellBreeze:


How do you feel about Debby's SSE/S Movement? No one predicted that.

I just ran the 18Z GFS of Debby and it does show a dip to the S followed by motion generally off to the East and then the ENE. In a weak steering environment motion will be erratic and the dip is not surprising. Overall though it is not a significant departure from what I thought would happen.

If you look at this steering map you will see the envelope for motion which is essentially to the ENE with room for a wobbling around to the South or North of that track.

Debby is obviously rapidly weakening. Winds are way down from just a few hours ago... Nothing above 30 even in gusts...

Quoting taco2me61:
There's no End to Debby..... She will do what ever she wants to do and Florida is the Target this time..... Sorry Guys....

Taco :o)

Debby sucks

I am having trouble understanding why it looks like the center of circulation, or what is left of it, appears to be moving SE. What is steering that movement or are my eyes deceiving me?

Quoting icmoore:


Well, nobody sent me that memo obviously :)

Some people (like yourself) I guess were quite photogenic.  Others...not so much:)

Basically near or south of Crystal River where the winds went calm.

DEBBY will not play by the rules I know I have been maried to a Debby for 36 years!!!

Quoting kmanislander:


I just ran the 18Z GFS of Debby and it does show a dip to the S followed by motion generally off to the East and then the ENE. In a weak steering environment motion will be erratic and the dip is not surprising. Overall though it is not a significant departure from what I thought would happen.

If you look at this steering map you will see the envelope for motion which is essentially to the ENE with room for a wobbling around to the South or North of that track.

Thanks, and doesn't it appear that her Center has become less broad due to land interaction?

Look at how the Bands have formed..

Quoting Grothar:


Kmans is very correct in that statement. It is unusual for a storm to form below 9 deg. The only one I can remember was, I believe Isidore. (don't recall the year) But that was an exception. The high in the Atlantic is staying very far South. It would move systems along west but if they are too low, the odds are against them.

Ivan

Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, groth, as somebody very unlikely to leave for a long period this summer, I'll try to keep ur seat warm 4 u....

Thanks, Baha. Yes, I too miss the good old days on the blog. But I think we have some very nice, enjoyable and knowledgable people on the blog now.

Center is also elongating on radar. Looks to be ready to collapse...

The question is, what happens when, and if Debby steps into the game and interacts with this seriously mammoth amount of energy off the SE U.S.? If she does, then it's game on. I don't see how, long term, she'd go SE. Conditions would warrant her going NE and following the natural path which the energy has flowed. If she does follow the NE path, then she'd have to become not nice. Unless she's still too slow, then it bye bye Debby.

Quoting gulfbreeze:
Ivan

The terrible? I bellieve Ivan was the only Cat 4 or strongerst to develop around 10. something degrees. But I believe Isidore developed below 10,but I do not think it was a Cat 4. That is the difference.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


any comments?

Quoting RevInFL:
I am having trouble understanding why it looks like the center of circulation, or what is left of it, appears to be moving SE. What is steering that movement or are my eyes deceiving me?

My post 635 may help

Quoting gulfbreeze:
Ivan

Alma in the 70's too.