Tropical Storm Debby makes landfall in Florida

By: Angela Fritz , 21:07 GMT le 26 juin 2012

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Debby continues to weaken this afternoon, but remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm's center of circulation made landfall this afternoon near Steinhatchee, Florida. Hurricane hunters continue to find surface wind speeds that just meet tropical storm criteria and surface buoys on Wundermap are all clocking in at or below 30 mph. The storm's upper-level circulation is being stretched out into the Atlantic by the same steering forces that will transport it to the other side of Florida, and this combined with dry air has led to a messy-looking tropical cyclone over the past couple of days. Though there was no lack of rain yesterday in the Florida panhandle, Debby has certainly been weakened by the dry air that has wrapped into its center (figure 1). Water vapor imagery from satellite shows Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture, though rain continues to fall on the northeast side of the storm where moisture is still available. A 6 foot wide, 12-15 foot deep sinkhole swallowed a small portion of I-10 in Madison County west of Jacksonville, Florida, this morning, where heavy rain continues, though this hole will likely be filled and the lane reopened by tomorrow morning. Wind shear around 20 knots is also keeping Debby at bay, but the real disrupter is the lack of moisture.


Figure 1. Where's Debby? On the left: visible satellite imagery. On the right: water vapor satellite imagery, where the dry air ranges from black to rusty orange. Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture. These images were captured around 1pm EDT.

Forecast for Debby
The forecast for Debby continues to be similar to previous forecasts. The storm will likely continue to lose strength as it moves over Florida this evening and Wednesday, but could gain some momentum again when it reaches the yet untapped Atlantic water. There's a high chance Debby will be downgraded to tropical depression status this evening. The HPC continues to forecast up to 8 inches of rain for far northeast Florida over the next 5 days, likely because of the slight strengthening forecast to occur on Thursday and beyond. Debby's center will most likely be over Atlantic water Wednesday night.


Figure 2. Advisory map for the U.S. Tuesday afternoon. Heat advisories (pink) blanket the central U.S. This heat is expected to move eastward over the next few days as the ridge of high pressure advances.

The Heat Continues

Record highs continue to fall Tuesday afternoon in the central U.S., where Denver, Colorado had its fifth consecutive day of triple-digit heat after it reached 100°F at 1pm MDT, and could continue to rise this afternoon. This ties the all-time record for consecutive 100°F+ days. Nebraska and Kansas are particularly toasty this afternoon; McCook, Nebraska has reached 113°F so far, and Hill City, Kansas is up to 112°F. Though, to put that in perspective, the state record for Nebraska is 118°F, and the state record for Kansas is 121°F.

The heat moves east tomorrow, and by Thursday, many of the major Midwest cities are forecast to be in the triple-digits, including Chicago, St. Louis, and Indianapolis. By Friday the heat will be beating down on the East Coast. In the meantime out west, the forecast high in Fresno for this weekend is 82°F, which would tie as the coolest final weekend in June on record, according to the Hanford forecast office.

Angela

Tropical Storm Debby (apphotos)
Boats are sunken and thrown up on a dock at the Rock Landing Marina in Panacea, Fla., Tuesday, June 26, 2012. High winds and heavy rains spawned by the approaching Tropical Storm Debby caused the damage. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Tropical Storm Debby
Tropical Storm Debby (apphotos)
Jesse Deese uses his skim board to shield from blowing sand in Panama City Beach, Fla., Monday, June 25, 2012. Tropical Storm Debby raked the Tampa Bay area with high wind and heavy rain Monday in a drenching that could top 2 feet over the next few days and trigger widespread flooding. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)
Tropical Storm Debby

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Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, Baha. Yes, I too miss the good old days on the blog. But I think we have some very nice, enjoyable and knowledgable people on the blog now.
YW... yeah, we did a good job with the first lot... now we gotta get the next generation going... lol... kman not included...

lol
Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
I guess I called that ok, as did so many others on here...

NHC concurs and moved it 0.5S.


Storm is really in bad shape though.

It looks like an open wave, with hardly any core structure remaining.
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Quoting Grothar:


The terrible?
You got that right!
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It's right on or near the coast of Citrus County according to the NHC.
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Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, Baha. Yes, I too miss the good old days on the blog. But I think we have some very nice, enjoyable and knowledgable people on the blog now.


Good times. Lot of changes, lots of new faces. Can't post as often as I'd like, but been trying to keep up with Debby..
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The begining of the CV season?

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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I'm inside of Debby's center!!! Tampa shield fail



Yes but the Tampa shield is kinda like the death star, if the threat is small enough you can go straight through the defense, the bigger the storm the more excuses it will find to miss Tampa, or barely impact Tampa for that matter lol. It's these little minimal storms that pass under the radar and manage to do all the damage, haha.


Really though. I hope people around Tampa Bay are reminded from Debby why they should evacuate from a real hurricane...
Member Since: 21 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6895
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Ivan


Ivan was classied as a TD at 9.7 N as I recall
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
Ivan

Alma in the 70's too.
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Quoting RevInFL:
I am having trouble understanding why it looks like the center of circulation, or what is left of it, appears to be moving SE. What is steering that movement or are my eyes deceiving me?


My post 635 may help
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1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


any comments?
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
Ivan


The terrible? I bellieve Ivan was the only Cat 4 or strongerst to develop around 10. something degrees. But I believe Isidore developed below 10,but I do not think it was a Cat 4. That is the difference.
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The question is, what happens when, and if Debby steps into the game and interacts with this seriously mammoth amount of energy off the SE U.S.? If she does, then it's game on. I don't see how, long term, she'd go SE. Conditions would warrant her going NE and following the natural path which the energy has flowed. If she does follow the NE path, then she'd have to become not nice. Unless she's still too slow, then it bye bye Debby.
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Center is also elongating on radar. Looks to be ready to collapse...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, groth, as somebody very unlikely to leave for a long period this summer, I'll try to keep ur seat warm 4 u....


Thanks, Baha. Yes, I too miss the good old days on the blog. But I think we have some very nice, enjoyable and knowledgable people on the blog now.
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Quoting Grothar:


Kmans is very correct in that statement. It is unusual for a storm to form below 9 deg. The only one I can remember was, I believe Isidore. (don't recall the year) But that was an exception. The high in the Atlantic is staying very far South. It would move systems along west but if they are too low, the odds are against them.

Ivan
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Quoting kmanislander:


I just ran the 18Z GFS of Debby and it does show a dip to the S followed by motion generally off to the East and then the ENE. In a weak steering environment motion will be erratic and the dip is not surprising. Overall though it is not a significant departure from what I thought would happen.

If you look at this steering map you will see the envelope for motion which is essentially to the ENE with room for a wobbling around to the South or North of that track.





Thanks, and doesn't it appear that her Center has become less broad due to land interaction?

Look at how the Bands have formed..

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DEBBY will not play by the rules I know I have been maried to a Debby for 36 years!!!
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Basically near or south of Crystal River where the winds went calm.
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Quoting icmoore:


Well, nobody sent me that memo obviously :)
Some people (like yourself) I guess were quite photogenic.  Others...not so much:)
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I am having trouble understanding why it looks like the center of circulation, or what is left of it, appears to be moving SE. What is steering that movement or are my eyes deceiving me?
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Quoting taco2me61:
There's no End to Debby..... She will do what ever she wants to do and Florida is the Target this time..... Sorry Guys....

Taco :o)

Debby sucks
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Debby is obviously rapidly weakening. Winds are way down from just a few hours ago... Nothing above 30 even in gusts...

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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


How do you feel about Debby's SSE/S Movement? No one predicted that.


I just ran the 18Z GFS of Debby and it does show a dip to the S followed by motion generally off to the East and then the ENE. In a weak steering environment motion will be erratic and the dip is not surprising. Overall though it is not a significant departure from what I thought would happen.

If you look at this steering map you will see the envelope for motion which is essentially to the ENE with room for a wobbling around to the South or North of that track.



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Quoting kmanislander:


I agree with that. Unfortunately the past two days were very busy for me and after Debby stalled near the panhandle I figured there would be lots of time to check back in :-)

Typically though a system near 8 N takes a long time to spin up as the Coriolis effect works best closer to 10 N and higher, particularly early in the season.

This image shows a nice circular vorticity signature.



Kmans is very correct in that statement. It is unusual for a storm to form below 9 deg. The only one I can remember was, I believe Isidore. (don't recall the year) But that was an exception. The high in the Atlantic is staying very far South. It would move systems along west but if they are too low, the odds are against them.

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I'm inside of Debby's center!!! Tampa shield fail
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CENTER OF DEBBY TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO RESUME AN
EASTWARD MOTION LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 82.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ESE OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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Quoting westpalmer:

I've been a lurker more or less since back then and remember the folks you are mentioning here.  Brings back good memories.  Do you remember when photos or icons could be added and a directive was given to put a photo of yourself up as your icon?  Didn't last long for obvious reasons.


Well, nobody sent me that memo obviously :)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm predicting at least a T.D out of this area.I'll eat crow if it doesn't pass.

I see Grothar is in the house :).
Me too if not I am eating crow like you but I expect a 40mph ts of this.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi pottery, I am cheering for the wave not to develop but to bring the NE Caribbean some needed rain as June has been very dry around these islands. Here in Puerto Rico many forest fires have occured.

Really sorry to hear that.
Hope you get some rain soon, then.

Here, it has never stopped all year.
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Quoting westpalmer:



Due South...
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Quoting Grothar:


It is just that it is highly unusual to see a front that stron that far South when it is almost July. There is also very high heat content in it. Even though it is dry air, it can affect Debby (Debbie, Debbi, Debis) in some very odd ways. I really haven't had time to look at it closely.


She is moving into Warmer Waters.
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Hi pottery, I am cheering for the wave not to develop but to bring the NE Caribbean some needed rain as June has been very dry around these islands. Here in Puerto Rico many forest fires have occured with the combination of dry and very warm weather this month.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, pottery.... looks like u guys have dried out some.

A little...
Half inch today. Sporadic showers.
Inch and a half yesterday.
Ground is not drying out at all.
Weeds are loving this...
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from facebook

Bryan Norcross
Debby is still misbehaving... in terms of its track. Ever since it made landfall it appears to be moving SSE along the coast, and is involved with what essentially is a cold front/dry line moving south across the state. The incredible rains have been focused on this line the last couple of days. It doesn't look like there will be much left of Debby's circulation by morning, though these things are hard to gauge. The bottom line is, the extreme weather threat is rapidly diminishing, though some gusty winds and downpours are still possible.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


What does this mean? }:/


It is just that it is highly unusual to see a front that stron that far South when it is almost July. There is also very high heat content in it. Even though it is dry air, it can affect Debby (Debbie, Debbi, Debis) in some very odd ways. I really haven't had time to look at it closely.
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Quoting kmanislander:
596. BahaHurican 9:24 PM EST on June 26, 2012

And therein lies the problem. If Debby had spun up in the BOC, Texas would have been on the cards. The trough that spawned Debby had an elongated low pressure area stretching from the GOM all the way down to the SW coast of the Yucatan. Consolidation occurred on the NW tip of the Yucatan but shear forced the low to reposition to the NE and after that Texas was essentially out of the equation taking into account the upper level pattern and the N/S orientation of the plains ridge which served to block any motion to the West.

A slavish adherence to models was the downfall of the forecast track in the face of the short term pattern that never really changed over a 36 hours period even though several models called for change.

I do not discount models at all but I also do not ignore what I see in real time.



How do you feel about Debby's SSE/S Movement? No one predicted that.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Water at the coordinates you gave appears to be about a degree above average, well, on the south side anyway. Probably half a degree above average in the entire region.



ok
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NHC might have to completely change their forecast cone again. Debby is determined to not play nice. I think it's either or for Debby, she catches the monster body of energy and storms and becomes a hurricane; possibly heading back west, or she limps out, the energy moves NE and escapes and Debby dies.
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596. BahaHurican 9:24 PM EST on June 26, 2012

And therein lies the problem. If Debby had spun up in the BOC, Texas would have been on the cards. The trough that spawned Debby had an elongated low pressure area stretching from the GOM all the way down to the SW coast of the Yucatan. Consolidation occurred on the NW tip of the Yucatan but shear forced the low to reposition to the NE and after that Texas was essentially out of the equation taking into account the upper level pattern and the N/S orientation of the plains ridge which served to block any motion to the West.

A slavish adherence to models was the downfall of the forecast track in the face of the short term pattern that never really changed over a 36 hours period even though several models called for change.

I do not discount models at all but I also do not ignore what I see in real time.

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Hey, pottery.... looks like u guys have dried out some.
Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
Quoting Tazmanian:
91P looks good other late season storm?



Water at the coordinates you gave appears to be about a degree above average, well, on the south side anyway. Probably half a degree above average in the entire region.
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There's no End to Debby..... She will do what ever she wants to do and Florida is the Target this time..... Sorry Guys....

Taco :o)
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Hey, groth, as somebody very unlikely to leave for a long period this summer, I'll try to keep ur seat warm 4 u....
Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
Quoting BahaHurican:
Biggest developmental impediment right now seems to be SAL...


I agree with that.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Grothar I expect a blog from you...



I will be leaving on Thursday for an extended time. I do not believe I will have time to do one. I may be able to drop in for only a few minutes at a time. I promise that if I see anything interesting I will try.
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Quoting waterskiman:
Winds are picking up in the upper keys, should of been calming down. So checked radar, SSE really! Is that right?


Yeah.. This is the Opposite of Fay.. Lmao...
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Winds are picking up in the upper keys, should of been calming down. So checked radar, Debby. SSE really! Is that right?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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