Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Structures can be seen burning as the Waldo Canyon Fire west of Colorado Springs rages out of control, Tuesday June, 26, 2012. (RJ Sangosti, The Denver Post)

Quoting JLPR2:
Cutting through the dry air like a knife.

Maybe this first disturbance will act like the "sacrificial wave" and pave the way for the stronger one behind it coming off the coast of Africa to have a better chance to develop. A few days ago someone posted a 168hr GFS map with a feature developing in the Central Atlantic and maybe this is what the model is picking up on. We shall see what happens.

anyway guys before I go to bed I have to say that tropical wave with 1014 mb low via 00Z surface map looking good if convection was to build we may see a 20% tomrrow and 97L to be born in terms of forecast I see either two tracks (if it is to develop) #1 tracks like hurricane gustav (08) #2 tracks like hurricane charley (04)

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Been away all night so excuse my ignorance but, is Debby heading SSE along the west coast?

yeah a core collapse may have occur think its heading to miami now

Quoting lobdelse81:

Maybe this first disturbance will act like the "sacrificial wave" and pave the way for the stronger one behind it coming off the coast of Africa to have a better chance to develop. A few days ago someone posted a 168hr GFS map with a feature developing in the Central Atlantic and maybe this is what the model is picking up on. We shall see what happens.

You reminded me that the GFS is running. xD

There it is, the CATL disturbance, SSW of Puerto Rico in 144hrs, so far that's the strongest it has looked in this run. It looses the other TW right after it moves into the water.

West winds down around the Tampa area.



997mb as well

CIMMS is on the ball.

XXL/AOI/XX
MARK
8.80N/35.33W

The tropical wave at 35-40W & 7-12N is holding its own as far as the dry air is concerned. It is creating its own moisture field as it heads westward. It really should have no serious impediments for it to develop slowly down the road. I think the GFS has it developing in the short term. It is an interesting feature to watch, and amazing that as soon as Debby is making her exit, another player steps up. 2012? hmmmm?

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Been away all night so excuse my ignorance but, is Debby heading SSE along the west coast?

Been watching and yes indeedy.
Actually Debbie is busting a move to the SE - trying to get her groove hat back on by nestling in the arms of the southern convergence from the Bay of Campeche and Yucatan (been flowing in for days).  The center is still overrun with dry air but it looks better than it ever has: solid coverage at the lower levels
More surprises coming IMHO - big ones

The reason why Debby has failed to allow new areas of deep convection to develop is that dry air aloft with shear prevents tall convective development. If you examine overall atmosphere moisture there is such massive amount of it still with Debby in the lower levels so if shear were to die down it would easily punch through the drier air aloft and work out pretty quick given large amount low level moisture, however this won't happen because the center is obviously being kept shallow. Most of those showers you see near the center of Debby are convective they are just so incredibly shallow.

there could become a T.C.F.A. on the eastern side of fla near shore southwest tropical atlantic

So would this qualify as two landfalls?

No - looks like it goes out to see and center does not pass over land again.

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
So would this qualify as two landfalls?

stii going south hmm lets see how far south she can take this feeder band in the middle any guesses ?

Link

Quoting kmanislander:


I agree with that. Unfortunately the past two days were very busy for me and after Debby stalled near the panhandle I figured there would be lots of time to check back in :-)

Typically though a system near 8 N takes a long time to spin up as the Coriolis effect works best closer to 10 N and higher, particularly early in the season.

This image shows a nice circular vorticity signature.

The Coriolis effect is nothing compared to the butterfly effect.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


there could become a T.C.F.A. on the eastern side of fla near shore southwest tropical atlantic

I agree completely - Debbie jumps the shark here that stron convection and eye clearing thing wil drop to the SE until the tropical arm gets attached fat and happy.
Then the fun begins - damn near instant major
After it cuts off the original primary circulation (as in now) it could well proceed to swallow it... And grow bigger
At least it will be offshore for now.
Debby is so building a fat and happy Atlantic center
That will become a hurricane as soon as it finishes pinching off the dry air -
This is a strategic retreat that will leave Debby impressive... finally ppl may get her size

Sad situation going on in Colorado tonight some peoples houses are up in flames.

SSD just added a 1000mb low off cedar keys in the Gulf. Seems the fun isn't over yet, technically speaking.

SSDLink

I can't believe they deleted the total precip. on NOAA's radar page. It was white as snow, all across Florida.

Anyone have a link to a better total precip. page for Florida? I tried looking for one last night and had no luck finding a graphic with a combined total. It's obviously off most charts, but someone is bound to be looking at one at NOAA.

Quoting RTSplayer:


Yes, the BAMM has almost the entire time, but I've been told it's not reliable.

,uses the beta effect at different strengths,i believe that spread with td debby would indicate disippation as it should show northerly componiant when used on a healthy TC....que the grapic PT!

RIP Debbie - I don't think anything else there other than a late season front pushing down.

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I can't believe they deleted the total precip. on NOAA's radar page. It was white as snow, all across Florida.

Anyone have a link to a better total precip. page for Florida? I tried looking for one last night and had no luck finding a graphic with a combined total. It's obviously off most charts, but someone is bound to be looking at one at NOAA.

How is this? From NWS Tallahassee:



This is how much rain fell since Sunday June 24, associated with Tropical Storm Debby. The colored image is the ESTIMATED storm total, based on data from the NWS radar located at the Tallahassee Regional Airport. Some of these values are probably over- estimated by a few inches, and this data gets progressively less reliable at longer distances from the radar. We have also plotted several MEASURED rainfall amounts for comparison. The highest value we know of is a whopping 28.78" near Curtis Mill (in Wakulla County, FL). The observer has a 7" gage, and had to dump it four times to accommodate all the water! This amount is roughly half the average rainfall amount in a year.

Debby making one final stand on the bay area, power went out for a sec. in the street.

Not sure if there was one earlier since I wasn't around, but yellow circle in Central Atlantic:


10% chance.

...CENTER OF DEBBY TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO RESUME AN EASTWARD MOTION LATER TONIGHT...

ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ESE OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA

That answers the ? of a second landfall.

It looks like the Debby's low pressure center is now shearing out. She does not have much left to go before being absorbed into the overall low pressure trough. Very interesting storm, but the death-kill seems to be on for her now.

Interestingly, there is an overall trough moving south through the state. Nothing to support this...let alone atmospheric conditions are bad...but maybe some little piece of vorticity like what can be seen on the shortwave keeps moving down the west coast of Florida and remains behind in the southern gulf later on...No support for redevolopment now...but not to be ruled out...interesting.

(click to enlarge)

In looking at the models, if Debby survives the crossing, which she may not, the storm may threaten Newfoundland. Additionally, to me it is unbelievable that there is yet another area of interest that has flared up in the CATL. It may not develop, but it is mighty interesting nonetheless.

Quoting AllStar17:
In looking at the models, if Debby survives the crossing, which she may not, the storm may threaten Newfoundland. Additionally, to me it is unbelievable that there is yet another area of interest that has flared up in the CATL. It may not develop, but it is mighty interesting nonetheless.

Not bad...and a little odd...I'd look for a surprise from Debby, but through a disipation shortly, then maybe something new possible in the SE Gulf at the base of her trough...which might mean more aggrivating rains for Florida with time.

My word of caution would be...Something is getting left behind....

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Sad situation going on in Colorado tonight some peoples houses are up in flames.

Unreal situation here tonight. I feel like we are going to wake up in the morning to before the Waldo Canyon Fire and after it here in Colorado. Still going very strong tonight in an area with many many homes. All this only a week or two after the High Park Fire, the most destructive in Colorado history at 248 homes.

Still a good live stream going. Link

Hi.
Is it uhh... possible for Debby to relocate her center to where there is a lot of convection? If so, would she begin to strengthen?

BOC has something brewing! and check out the E. Pac

New in-depth analysis on Debby and Atlantic tropics on my blog.

I also discuss the potential for both Atlantic tropical waves to develop....

Quoting Tazmanian:




some of you may be get this am uesing good chrome 20 wish this came out and evere time i re lode the page for new commets this come up


This webpage is not available
The webpage at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comme nt.html?entrynum=2136 might be temporarily down or it may have moved permanently to a new web address.
Error 330 (net::ERR_CONTENT_DECODING_FAILED): Unknown error.

Mate, do you have Norton 360 on your pc/laptop? A friend of mine had that and it was blocking there chrome and IE but not firefox. I had to uninstall Norton 360 and straight away the net was back on chrome and IE.

Tropical Depression #Debby advisory 15 issued. Center of #Debby turns southeastward Link

Quoting emguy:
My word of caution would be...Something is getting left behind....

Agreed....
New CoC forming in Atlantic is the dark circle covering
~all of 29-30N between 78 and 81W and then some
Has very tall convection rising from several points...

Can't quite tell if it has sucked in the old center - black dot at 81.7W29N or if the old center rebounded into GoM.
This is all really bad news because Debby about to blow up as she sinks back into her tropical flow and links up with at least 3 solid arms over the next few hours.  The covers many square miles - it is wider than Florida right now but will likely contract into a powerful tropical storm.
Heading ESE - motion will slow as it rembeds itself in between the NE and SW coverging bands.  Then it will move with the front that stretches from Central America out near Bermuda.
If it doesn't self destruct (from multiple centers), Debby will be a serious storm by tomorrow afternoon.  

Quoting Tazmanian:




some of you may be get this am uesing good chrome 20 wish this came out and evere time i re lode the page for new commets this come up


This webpage is not available
The webpage at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comme nt.html?entrynum=2136 might be temporarily down or it may have moved permanently to a new web address.
Error 330 (net::ERR_CONTENT_DECODING_FAILED): Unknown error.

The quoted url has a space in it that would result in that sort of error.

slow tonight

yup...
on the other hand, I think the center is almost emerging from Florida. The center may have relocated to the main convection.

That radar loop that emguy posted makes it seem as though an LLC raced over Florida very quickly, or was that just a ghost circulation? Either way, I think the epic wind shear just saved Florida from a couple more days of Debby. Perhaps that circulation I saw was her back-up copy swooping in to save the day while the old parent circulation withers and dies in the gulf... or something.

Well, there I was, fast asleep, minding my own business, when...

BANG!

there was a sitting-up-straight-in-bed loud clap of thunder, followed by a white-bright flash of lightning and another thunderclap.

Naturally I got on the blog... lol

Floater SWIR / IR2 Loop from 0015 to 0715 shows the previous main CoC rotate around and into the outer ring of the new CoC - check the black dot flying in a circle from the GoM coast over to the Atl coast across FL.
The new center moves further south - that's a power move that will close up the split the dry air created - this thing will be huge by dawn. 
Exciting times and so glad it naturally occurs out in the Atlantic over warmer water. 

Looks like there's been some sort of centre relocation w/ Debby, to the east coast of FL near the projected exit point on this map.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Looks like there's been some sort of centre relocation w/ Debby, to the east coast of FL near the projected exit point on this map.

It is south of where it was supposed to get to Wed nite - Thurs AM

Debby is heading SE - it is backing up towards you Baha!
I think it will stop backing up when the southern arm is attached all fat and happy in the next hour or two. IMO she blows up into a serious storm after that. Either that or just blows up from multiple centers.

AniGIF from CIMSS shows the new center forming and sucking in the old CoC up to 0445 UTC. Old Center shows as dot in middle of FL at end.

Colorado WREX-TV live stream..... Link

Colorado Springs and El Paso County, Colorado Fire and EMS

I believe we might see some development in the Atlantic headed towards the caribbean sea! Looks similar to Gustav 2008.

Severe Weather Bulletin Number FIVE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "DINDO" (DOKSURI)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Wednesday, 27 June 2012

Tropical Storm "DINDO" has maintained its strength as it moves closer to Extreme Northern Luzon.

At 4pm today, 430 km East Southeast of Casiguran, Aurora (15.9°N, 126.7°E) with Maximum winds of 75 kph near the center gustiness of up 90 kph.Forecast to move WNW at 19kph.

Forecast positions:
Thursday afternoon: 190 km East Northeast of Tuguegarao, Cagayan
Friday afternoon: 210 km West Northwest of Basco, Batanes
Saturday afternoon: 620 km Northwest of Basco, Batanes

Public Storm Warning Signal #2: Cagayan
Calayan Group of Islands
Babuyan Group of Islands
Isabela
Batanes Group of Islands
Apayao
Kalinga
Mt.Province

Public Storm Warning Signal #1: Ilocos Norte
Abra
Ilocos Sur
Aurora
Ifugao
Nueva Viscaya
Quirino
Benguet

Estimated rainfall amount is from 15 - 25 mm per hour (heavy - intense) within the 400 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

Tropical Storm "Dindo" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao especially the western section which may trigger landslides and flashfloods.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Eastern Seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon and Visayas due to the combined effect of Tropical Storm "DINDO" and the Southwest Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM tonight.

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph