Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Debby makes landfall in Florida

Posted by: Angela Fritz, 21:07 GMT le 26 juin 2012

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Debby continues to weaken this afternoon, but remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm's center of circulation made landfall this afternoon near Steinhatchee, Florida. Hurricane hunters continue to find surface wind speeds that just meet tropical storm criteria and surface buoys on Wundermap are all clocking in at or below 30 mph. The storm's upper-level circulation is being stretched out into the Atlantic by the same steering forces that will transport it to the other side of Florida, and this combined with dry air has led to a messy-looking tropical cyclone over the past couple of days. Though there was no lack of rain yesterday in the Florida panhandle, Debby has certainly been weakened by the dry air that has wrapped into its center (figure 1). Water vapor imagery from satellite shows Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture, though rain continues to fall on the northeast side of the storm where moisture is still available. A 6 foot wide, 12-15 foot deep sinkhole swallowed a small portion of I-10 in Madison County west of Jacksonville, Florida, this morning, where heavy rain continues, though this hole will likely be filled and the lane reopened by tomorrow morning. Wind shear around 20 knots is also keeping Debby at bay, but the real disrupter is the lack of moisture.

Figure 1. Where's Debby? On the left: visible satellite imagery. On the right: water vapor satellite imagery, where the dry air ranges from black to rusty orange. Debby's center is almost completely void of moisture. These images were captured around 1pm EDT.

Forecast for Debby
The forecast for Debby continues to be similar to previous forecasts. The storm will likely continue to lose strength as it moves over Florida this evening and Wednesday, but could gain some momentum again when it reaches the yet untapped Atlantic water. There's a high chance Debby will be downgraded to tropical depression status this evening. The HPC continues to forecast up to 8 inches of rain for far northeast Florida over the next 5 days, likely because of the slight strengthening forecast to occur on Thursday and beyond. Debby's center will most likely be over Atlantic water Wednesday night.

Figure 2. Advisory map for the U.S. Tuesday afternoon. Heat advisories (pink) blanket the central U.S. This heat is expected to move eastward over the next few days as the ridge of high pressure advances.

The Heat Continues

Record highs continue to fall Tuesday afternoon in the central U.S., where Denver, Colorado had its fifth consecutive day of triple-digit heat after it reached 100°F at 1pm MDT, and could continue to rise this afternoon. This ties the all-time record for consecutive 100°F+ days. Nebraska and Kansas are particularly toasty this afternoon; McCook, Nebraska has reached 113°F so far, and Hill City, Kansas is up to 112°F. Though, to put that in perspective, the state record for Nebraska is 118°F, and the state record for Kansas is 121°F.

The heat moves east tomorrow, and by Thursday, many of the major Midwest cities are forecast to be in the triple-digits, including Chicago, St. Louis, and Indianapolis. By Friday the heat will be beating down on the East Coast. In the meantime out west, the forecast high in Fresno for this weekend is 82°F, which would tie as the coolest final weekend in June on record, according to the Hanford forecast office.

Angela

Tropical Storm Debby (apphotos)

Boats are sunken and thrown up on a dock at the Rock Landing Marina in Panacea, Fla., Tuesday, June 26, 2012. High winds and heavy rains spawned by the approaching Tropical Storm Debby caused the damage. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

Tropical Storm Debby (apphotos)

Jesse Deese uses his skim board to shield from blowing sand in Panama City Beach, Fla., Monday, June 25, 2012. Tropical Storm Debby raked the Tampa Bay area with high wind and heavy rain Monday in a drenching that could top 2 feet over the next few days and trigger widespread flooding. (AP Photo/Dave Martin)

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301. weatherh98 00:28 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting PackManWx: On average.. I know there are lots of variables that go into it at least a week and a half IF it goes to florida Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6290

302. Articuno 00:28 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: whatever your posting, it's not working. Member Since: 22 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933

303. RadarRich 00:28 GMT le 27 juin 2012
The AOI (yellow circle) in the Central Atlantic is obviously a long way out. The models probably have not picked up on any development just yet. There is a large amount of dry air directly in its path. Any development would have to cut through this substantial dry area. However, systems like this, if they start developing, can create their own moisture in the atmosphere as they move westward. Let's see what transpires. Crazy year so far, so who knows what can happen.. Member Since: 28 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 406

304. WxLogic 00:28 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Good Evening Member Since: 14 août 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4721

305. GeoffreyWPB 00:29 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: XX/AOI/XX Thanks Keep. Looks pretty good for an early-season wave. Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9248

306. charlottefl 00:30 GMT le 27 juin 2012

FROM THE 5PM FORECAST DISCUSSION (SEEN THIS A FEW TIMES THIS WEEKEND. I GUESS THIS MODEL HAS GAINED SOME RESPECT WITH THEM.)
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ISNOT AS QUICK AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BOTH BECAUSE OF CONTINUITY AND RESPECT FOR THE GFS.

Member Since: 18 décembre 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685

307. Articuno 00:31 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: 12 times? never been bitten. never had a bee sting. never broke a bone. you know, i think im pretty well off.. Never got bit, Got stung by a yellow jacket when I was little and there is still a big purple scar, and I have never broke anything but I have been close 3 times. Member Since: 22 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933

308. washingtonian115 00:31 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting Mamasteph: uh,,excuse me but we like to think of it as 1 big Beach...lol Lol.Believe or not D.C is also a swamp.That's why it gets so humid here in the summer. Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 11185

309. ncstorm 00:31 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Kudos to Washingtonian and Tropicspr for sticking with the wave and calling for development! Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8844

310. PackManWx 00:31 GMT le 27 juin 2012
correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the long range GFS show a very large ridge over the eastern conus on July 6 that would essentially block any system from interacting with the conus during that time? Member Since: 21 juin 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 68

311. Neapolitan 00:32 GMT le 27 juin 2012
There's a lot of severe weather going on in Canada this evening, with tornado and thunderstorm watches and warnings galore, mainly in Saskatchewan.. Meanwhile, not too much farther south, things were pretty toasty in Montana. Yes, Montana: RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 231 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2012 ...ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE BROKEN AT MILES CITY MONTANA... AS OF 230 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT MILES CITY HAS BEEN 111 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 110 DEGREES AT MILES CITY. THE PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 110 DEGREES WAS SET ON JULY 23RD AND 24TH 2007...JULY 14TH 2002...AUGUST 7TH 1995...AND AUGUST 7TH 1949. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS ALSO BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 106 DEGREES FOR JUNE 26TH...WHICH WAS SET IN 1988. THE TEMPERATURE AT MILES CITY MAY STILL CLIMB HIGHER TODAY...SO UPDATED RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL BE ISSUED ONCE THE FINAL HIGH TEMPERATURE IS RECORDED. Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11302

312. JLPR2 00:32 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting PackManWx: if that tropical wave actually made it to florida, what day are we looking at? how long do they take to get from there The last I looked it took until the 2-3 of July to reach Puerto Rico so probably double as long to get to Florida. Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7528

313. ncstorm 00:32 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting RadarRich: The AOI (yellow circle) in the Central Atlantic is obviously a long way out. The models probably have not picked up on any development just yet. There is a large amount of dry air directly in its path. Any development would have to cut through this substantial dry area. However, systems like this, if they start developing, can create their own moisture in the atmosphere as they move westward. Let's see what transpires. Crazy year so far, so who knows what can happen.. the GFS did.. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8844

314. WxLogic 00:32 GMT le 27 juin 2012
The ATL AOI will have issues once it detaches itself from the ITCZ: Member Since: 14 août 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4721

315. Mamasteph 00:33 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting washingtonian115: Lol.Believe or not D.C is also a swamp.That's why it gets so humid here in the summer. And i thought it was from all the politicians...lol. Member Since: 24 mai 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 144

316. MAweatherboy1 00:33 GMT le 27 juin 2012
At the risk of eating crow: There is absolutely no way this wave will develop... Still, it shows it's almost that time of year :) Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 71 Comments: 6524

317. GainesvilleGator 00:33 GMT le 27 juin 2012
After looking at the water vapor loop earlier in the afternoon, I didn't expect Gainesville to be getting the "Tallahasse" treatment from Debbie. It is raining harder now than at anytime this past Sunday. Member Since: 11 septembre 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 733

318. LargoFl 00:33 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting washingtonian115: The GFS shows that wave at least making a run at T.D status....before killing it.Let's see what happens with this one.Highly doubt anything would come out of it that's major....but this season has already been whacky... just imagine if it does get to a TD..5th storm before july Member Since: 6 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22513

319. washingtonian115 00:34 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Fat wave about to come off of Africa. Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 11185

320. JLPR2 00:34 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting WxLogic: The ATL AOI will have issues once it detaches itself from the ITCZ: And all of that SAL will give me prime weather for painting and cleaning the backyard tomorrow. XD Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7528

321. LargoFl 00:34 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting GainesvilleGator: After looking at the water vapor loop earlier in the afternoon, I didn't expect Gainesville to be getting the "Tallahasse" treatment from Debbie. It is raining harder now than at anytime this past Sunday. that may just happen around you for a day or two,the system is that large Member Since: 6 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22513

322. JLPR2 00:35 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting washingtonian115: Fat ave about to come off of Africa. Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7528

323. aspectre 00:36 GMT le 27 juin 2012
256 KEEPEROFTHEGATE: [TropicalWeatherOutlook map] Oddly, I woke up this morning expecting that yellow circle west of CapeVerde to be there... literally upon waking up. Then was momentarily confused when it wasn't on the TWO before remembering it hadn't been there last night. Still spent the rest of the day wondering why it wasn't appearing. Must have some weird (but unremembered) dreams to wake up that way. Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4855

324. LargoFl 00:36 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Member Since: 6 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22513

325. Dakster 00:37 GMT le 27 juin 2012
I don't like that Bermuda High setup KOTG... Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 5266

326. LargoFl 00:38 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting LargoFl: looks like it IS sinking southward huh..or is the rain field just expanding? Member Since: 6 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22513

327. washingtonian115 00:38 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting LargoFl: just imagine if it does get to a TD..5th storm before july The wave will have trouble with dry air.But if it can sustain moisture then it'll probably attempt to develop once it get's near the islands. sorry I can quote all of you all.But I'm showing support by plusing(I don't care if it's spelled wrong). your comments. Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 11185

328. EricSFL 00:39 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting JLPR2: We might even get another circle out of this one soon. Member Since: 26 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 759

329. avthunder 00:39 GMT le 27 juin 2012

Quoting charlottefl:

FROM THE 5PM FORECAST DISCUSSION (SEEN THIS A FEW TIMES THIS WEEKEND. I GUESS THIS MODEL HAS GAINED SOME RESPECT WITH THEM.)
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ISNOT AS QUICK AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BOTH BECAUSE OF CONTINUITY AND RESPECT FOR THE GFS.

R E S P E C T. Find out what it means to me. Yep the GFS earned it.

Member Since: 30 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 249

330. MrMixon 00:40 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Just took this from the back yard. Fire is roughly six miles away. We haven't been ordered to evac yet, but we're packing just in case... More info here at the Boulder Daily Camera Member Since: 26 Mars 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1087

331. LargoFl 00:40 GMT le 27 juin 2012
...........bad line of storms down in manatee Member Since: 6 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22513

332. Articuno 00:41 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting MrMixon: Just took this from the back yard. Fire is roughly six miles away. We haven't been ordered to evac yet, but we're packing just in case... OMG. I would be scared to darn heck. Member Since: 22 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933

333. LargoFl 00:41 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting MrMixon: Just took this from the back yard. Fire is roughly six miles away. We haven't been ordered to evac yet, but we're packing just in case... ............good idea..stay safe Member Since: 6 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22513

334. Jax82 00:41 GMT le 27 juin 2012
been raining here non-stop in Jax Beach for some time now, the exit to ponte vedra from butler is closed due to water covering the highway, and i just drove down 1st street and a lot of it has 1-3 feet of standing water, I let out about 4 inches of water in my pool this morning and its already full again! And for the second straight day...a record rainfall. ... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Jacksonville... a record rainfall of 4.11 inch(es) was set at Jacksonville today. This breaks the old record of 3.37 set in 1996. Updates will follow tonight. Member Since: 2 septembre 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261

335. JLPR2 00:42 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting EricSFL: We might even get another circle out of this one soon. Now that would be amazing, even if the waves don't develop. Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7528

336. Mamasteph 00:42 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting JLPR2: i usually don't pay attention to the waves off Africa until they are above the 15 degree line..usually they are the ones that make a beeline across the Atlantic straight for Florida..lol..but then this is 2012..anything goes.. Member Since: 24 mai 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 144

337. severstorm 00:43 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting RadarRich: The AOI (yellow circle) in the Central Atlantic is obviously a long way out. The models probably have not picked up on any development just yet. There is a large amount of dry air directly in its path. Any development would have to cut through this substantial dry area. However, systems like this, if they start developing, can create their own moisture in the atmosphere as they move westward. Let's see what transpires. Crazy year so far, so who knows what can happen.. hey atleast its something new to watch. Member Since: 25 novembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 917

338. GeorgiaStormz 00:43 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting MrMixon: Just took this from the back yard. Fire is roughly six miles away. We haven't been ordered to evac yet, but we're packing just in case... More info here at the Boulder Daily Camera all those trees in front of the fire to burn all between the fire and your house. hoping for the best for you. Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7525

339. waterskiman 00:44 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: At the risk of eating crow: There is absolutely no way this wave will develop... Still, it shows it's almost that time of year :) I agree, looking at it again it is even below the ten, may be 7, clouds spin there all the time. It's too far south. Around 13 to 20 are the storms that may do something. Member Since: 6 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4317

340. LargoFl 00:44 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting Jax82: been raining here non-stop in Jax Beach for some time now, the exit to ponte vedra from butler is closed due to water covering the highway, and i just drove down 1st street and a lot of it has 1-3 feet of standing water, I let out about 4 inches of water in my pool this morning and its already full again! And for the second straight day...a record rainfall. ... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Jacksonville... a record rainfall of 4.11 inch(es) was set at Jacksonville today. This breaks the old record of 3.37 set in 1996. Updates will follow tonight. stay safe up there, i rermember here..4 inches turned into 14 inches in one day, then we still got MORE gee Member Since: 6 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22513

341. HurricaneHunterJoe 00:44 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting ncstorm: what kind of upgrade did the GFS get!! dannngg! I mentioned earlier,I want somma dat!!!....lol Member Since: 18 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148

342. etxwx 00:45 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting Tribucanes: Ya, growing up in rural N.C, I caught probably well over 100 snakes, much to my father's displeasure. Was very lucky to never be bitten by copperheads and moccasins which I encountered weekly at least. Picked a baby moccasin up, not knowing it was a moccasin, brought it home and my poor mother about passed out. It didn't bite me though. Ya most snakes strike only once, but some do it in lightening session. Wow, I did underestimate the threat of those fire ants. Reading some stories of them getting into nursing homes in Florida, so sad. So I've learned, swim towards the snakes and away from floating ant colonies and gators. :) Very true. Ordinarily, poisonous snakes (unless they are really ticked off) will not give you their full load of venom on the first strike. They'd rather give you a warning jab first. (But don't count on this) Imported fire ants have no such compunction. They bite first and often...doesn't cost them a darn thing...they will keep on stinging until you get them off you. I'm very live and let live when it comes to critters (I like snakes - they are great rodent control) but imported fire ants are in a class by themselves. They are aggressive not simply defensive. They truly are a scourge in the southern states. And they are expanding their range. Oh boy. Member Since: 4 septembre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 716

343. TampaFLUSA 00:45 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting LargoFl: looks like it IS sinking southward huh..or is the rain field just expanding? From what I can tell by air pressure readings and wind barbs the center is roughly around Levy County a little se of Cedar Key. Member Since: 21 juin 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 1657

344. severstorm 00:46 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting MrMixon: Just took this from the back yard. Fire is roughly six miles away. We haven't been ordered to evac yet, but we're packing just in case... More info here at the Boulder Daily Camera stay safe and best of luck to you Member Since: 25 novembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 917

345. Dakster 00:46 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting MrMixon: Just took this from the back yard. Fire is roughly six miles away. We haven't been ordered to evac yet, but we're packing just in case... More info here at the Boulder Daily Camera You are burning, we are drowning... We need to level this out somehow. Good luck and I hope that you have a plan and are getting your irreplaceable valuables together just in case. That is a freaky sight to see out your back door. Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 5266

346. floridaT 00:47 GMT le 27 juin 2012
whoooo hooooo a yellow circle let the debate begin Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 712

347. Mamasteph 00:47 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting MrMixon: Just took this from the back yard. Fire is roughly six miles away. We haven't been ordered to evac yet, but we're packing just in case... More info here at the Boulder Daily Camera Good idea..you might even want to leave before that..during the fires of 98 here in fla..I spent the day hosing down the house and trees from the hot ash..was packed..and then we got evacuated around 11pm and roads were packed..good luck and stay safe... Member Since: 24 mai 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 144

348. LargoFl 00:47 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Member Since: 6 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22513

349. LargoFl 00:48 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Member Since: 6 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22513

350. Dakster 00:48 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Since the GFS has been very good with this storm, I am not concerned about a loop back into Florida from the Atlantic until or unless the GFS gets on board... Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 5266

351. BahaHurican 00:49 GMT le 27 juin 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: At the risk of eating crow: There is absolutely no way this wave will develop... Still, it shows it's almost that time of year :) Greatest likelihood for such waves in early July is in the Caribbean. A lot depends on how much SAL is still in the area as it approaches 50W... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961

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