Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Grothar:


I'm flying out this morning. I'll be leaving soon. Last thing I feel like doing. Long trip.

Safe trip to you Gro.:)

Debby still looks nice and Round

Quoting hydrus:
Safe trip to you Gro.:)

Thanks, hydrus. You can still drop a line. I will checking every few days.

Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I'm awake, too! It does look good

Hey, Doug!

Yeah, the main blob of convection has held together very well, and is approaching the magic 45W mark, which I think it should pass some time late this afternoon or early evening.

It also seems to have somehow gained enough latitude that it will miss the S. American continent after all, in spite of the low level steering being contrary to N. motion...

Quoting RTSplayer:


Yeah, the main blob of convection has held together very well, and is approaching the magic 45W mark, which I think it should pass some time late this afternoon or early evening.

It also seems to have somehow gained enough latitude that it will miss the S. American continent after all, in spite of the low level steering being contrary to N. motion...

I'm surprised it gained that latitude considering the strong high above it. It is still moving pretty fast. It very very unusual to see any development with these this early, but it has happened.

Lates GFS does nothing with the AOI.

In fact, it kills everything till the end of the run, when there's one possible pop-up wave candidate east of the Bahamas, and another possible CV wave candidate, but again those two are at the very end of the run.

Euro failed to initialize the invest. Go figure.

Canadian has it somewhere south-east of Hispaniola in 144 hours, but with no apparent significant LLC.


Over all, models aren't liking our AOI at all...


GFS and ensembles do show two potential pop-up candidates, one east of Bahamas and one in the BoC during the next two or three days, though models usually over-play stuff in the BoC or near Central America, so that might just be garbage.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Wow, that's VERY intense. Strong El Nino, winter would be insane.

I hate EL NINO!!!!!!!!!

Quoting RTSplayer:
Lates GFS does nothing with the AOI.

In fact, it kills everything till the end of the run, when there's one possible pop-up wave candidate east of the Bahamas, and another possible CV wave candidate, but again those two are at the very end of the run.

Euro failed to initialize the invest. Go figure.

Canadian has it somewhere south-east of Hispaniola in 144 hours, but with no apparent significant LLC.


Over all, models aren't liking our AOI at all...


GFS and ensembles do show two potential pop-up candidates, one east of Bahamas and one in the BoC during the next two or three days, though models usually over-play stuff in the BoC or near Central America, so that might just be garbage.

These features pop up all the time. It is unusual to get development there this time of year. They are usually just rainmakers for the islands. But this season is a little different.

WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Quoting gator23:


Yes it was it is called ball lightning
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ball_lightning

during the remnants of TD Ivan or something, had a huge ball of ball lightning explode suddenly behind our house. A cloud to ground strike also hit somewhere in our yard.
Sounded like someone set an atomic bomb off and people were talking about it for days.
Some trees fell too.

What was strange was that there was no rolling thunder, just one huge !!!!!BAMMMMM!!!!! and then almost total silence

scary as hell

Quoting Grothar:
WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

The second statement doesn't fit perfectly with the first lol

Quoting Grothar:
WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Good morning Gro.

I thought they would go with 20% because of what you highlighted.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Good morning Gro.

I thought they would go with 20% because of what you highlighted.

LOL. They don't listen to me until much later.

Quoting CaribBoy:


The second statement doesn't fit perfectly with the first lol

What do you mean?

Good morning all from the left coast

Quoting Ameister12:

I find it hard to believe that a tropical storm as pathetic as Bonnie would have moderate tropical storm force winds. :-/

I dont believe it did.Formed July 20, 2010
Dissipated July 24, 2010
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
45 mph (75 km/h)
Lowest pressure 1005 mbar (hPa); 29.68 inHg
Fatalities 1 total
Damage $1.5 million (2010 USD)
Areas affected Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos, Bahamas, Florida

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good morning all from the left coast

Hey Joe,

Quoting Grothar:
Debby still looks nice and Round

Are you still talking about the Tropical Storm?

Xandra, er du her nå? Hva synes du om vår lille tropiske bølge?

Quoting CaribBoy:


I hate EL NINO!!!!!!!!!

Being in California,love El Nino and the Pineapple Express

Quoting Dakster:


Are you still talking about the Tropical Storm?

Family blog, Dak. Family blog! LOL

Mammoth high pressure builds back in for folks dealing with wildfires....Not good.

Quoting RussianWinter:
Based on the floater


Link

Looks like the circulation has gone under the convection. I knew staying up late was worth it guys!

Good Mourning wunderblog, it seem there is a small low level spin near 11.2N/45.5W and it is moving into some convection or dissipating. It still early right now, but as more satellite imagery comes in we should have a better understanding as whats going on. The NHC is way too conservative just a 10% chance. I will at least give it a 20%.

Good Morning. That wave is a little early for tropical development and we know that most that do develop do so in the peak of the season (August-September) when sheer dies down considerably in the tropical Atlantic, and most importantly, in the Caribbean when the Westerlies also die down to sustainable levels.

With that being said, we are seeing the beginning of the wave train from Africa. As noted below (from the NOAA Mariner's Guide to Tropical Cyclones) we can do the math. If this is indeed the "first" tropical wave emerging from Africa across the basin intact; we have about 59 more to go over the next several months at the rate of about one every three days. The larger ones, with much broader moisture fields, will start to emerge into the ITCZ over the coming weeks. These initial little guys will be starting the process of adding more moisture to the ITCZ for the ones that will follow.


Each hurricane season approximately 60 of these waves cross the tropical North Atlantic. Although the majority of these waves pass through the basin without any significant tropical cyclone development, passage of these waves is often accompanied by squally weather with brief periods of higher sustained winds.

Quoting Grothar:


Hey Joe,

Hi Gro! Heard were leaving on a long trip? Work or Pleasure?

Quoting weatherh98:


I got up at 515

Im not but others are

i been up since 430 edt
so tired, but thats whats happens when you stay up late watching swimming and non-weather

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



i been up since 430 edt
so tired, but thats whats happens when you stay up late watching swimming and non-weather

got up at 420PST, Gotta go to the VA Hospital in San Diego and get my Coumadin checked. 1 1/2 hr trip each way.but ya gotta do what ya gotta do.

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Hi Gro! Heard were leaving on a long trip? Work or Pleasure?

Work. Are you a vet?

Everything better stay away from Florida July 6 - 11

My family had to cancel their vacation last week because of Debbie and we postponed it to July 6 - 11.
Another system would be horrible luck.

If you want rain in your area, let me plan a vacation to your area.

Quoting hydrus:
Mammoth high pressure builds back in for folks dealing with wildfires....Not good.

That heat is going to be something to see, It covers a good portion of the country. Looks like some record breakers coming. All time records, since records have been kept, all known records up to the present time, every record known to mankind. (You have to be specific with some people)

Quoting Grothar:


Work. Are you a vet?

Yes Sir. Been a while, spent 10 years in USAF in 70's-80's

Morning all.

Hope you have an excellent trip, Grothar... enjoy it!

Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all.

Hope you have an excellent trip, Grothar... enjoy it!

Thanks, Baha. I'll be gone awhile, so keep things under control. :) I'll drop by when I can.

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Yes Sir. Been a while, spent 10 years in USAF in 70's-80's

Long time. Congrats. Army here. How do they treat you at the VA?

Have a safe trip Gro

Quoting RTSplayer:


Yeah, the main blob of convection has held together very well, and is approaching the magic 45W mark, which I think it should pass some time late this afternoon or early evening.

It also seems to have somehow gained enough latitude that it will miss the S. American continent after all, in spite of the low level steering being contrary to N. motion...

I expected it to miss S America. They generally do by this time of year. I'm not really expecting any development with this [though given the dynamics of 2012 anything seems possible lol], but I'm pleased to see it's holding together sufficiently to bring some rain the the Lesser Antilles where, IIRC, they could really use it.

Quoting CaribBoy:


I hate EL NINO!!!!!!!!!

Hey, CaribBoy. Is it still pretty dry down there?

Quoting hydrus:
I dont believe it did.Formed July 20, 2010
Dissipated July 24, 2010
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
45 mph (75 km/h)
Lowest pressure 1005 mbar (hPa); 29.68 inHg
Fatalities 1 total
Damage $1.5 million (2010 USD)
Areas affected Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos, Bahamas, Florida

Like I said last night, you had to be there...

drought spreading.
No real rain in forecast for 2 weeks:

temps near 100F

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Have a safe trip Gro

Thanks, Joe

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



i been up since 430 edt
so tired, but thats whats happens when you stay up late watching swimming and non-weather

Of course, staying up late watching the weather has no exhaustive effects whatsover... lol

Hopefully you can go sleep it off later this morning.

Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, Baha. I'll be gone awhile, so keep things under control. :) I'll drop by when I can.

Aye, aye, sir!

Oh, wait....

And now, having posted 6 of the last 15 posts, I gotta run... lol... Ya'll have a great day!

Quoting BahaHurican:
Aye, aye, sir!

Oh, wait....

Hey, I wasn't in the Navy. Just a simple "Sir, yes Sir" will do.

Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, Joe

bye Grothar.
I will run this blog while you are gone :)
no worries.
have a safe trip, wherever you are going

Quoting BahaHurican:
And now, having posted 6 of the last 15 posts, I gotta run... lol... Ya'll have a great day!

LOL
actually it was 6 of 8

Quoting Grothar:


Long time. Congrats. Army here. How do they treat you at the VA?

Excellent!! Very good multi published Cardio doc I have.He teaches at UCSD. Sometimes I have to wait a couple weeks to see a specialist,but,thats nothing!! Ans Im glad to see Obama increasing VA funding since he's been in,as Ive seen soomany young vets with lost limbs,it takes big bucks to help them and we should help them....Didn't mean to ramble.

The interesting thing to note as to this wave is that it is already running near or on the magical 10N latitude in terms of the coreolis effect and it is going to make it into the Caribbean. I am a little surprised that the ITCZ jumped into this trajectory position so early but it could stay there or drift back down below 10N over the next few weeks.

As noted by the Hovmoller chart below, the ITCZ has been running around 5-8N the past several weeks until the jump to the North with this particular set of waves.

Link