Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

I believe that storm system over Ghana is the one that some models are picking up on, correct me if I am wrong. Anyways;

1. UNF opens for normal business today at noon, rather quick considering the rains from Debby in Jax.

2. My heart goes out to the people of Colorado Springs. Sure it isn't as big a fire as High Park, but it is in a much more precarious area, close to an area of ~400,000 people and is already affecting some of them. Just terrible.

3. Debby look better now post-tropical than she ever did as a tropical system. Conditions seem to favor regeneration over the next day or so. Regardless, Bermuda should monitor the system as it will be rather close to them.

4. The CV wave is only getting attention because it is just that, a June CV wave. Not exactly a common occurrence given that it is fairly well organized. It is something to monitor, though chances of anything coming from it are low. The last notable early season CV storm was Bertha in 2008. I'm pretty sure everyone remembers her.

Hurricane Bertha

The NHC is pretty much done with the wave, according to them rotation has slowed as i observed yesterday, and so i do not see much more for the wave to do than to produce rains, especially when it taps into the moisture around the monsoon belt.

Jun 27, 2012
Over Two Feet of Rain Soaks Florida

Tropical Storm Debby (now downgraded to a tropical depression) has moved over the Florida Panhandle and is out to sea, leaving behind flooded towns and at least one fatality. The National Weather Service has measured in excess of two feet of rain from this system. A map of the rainfall totals from June 23-27, 2012 shows that the highest amounts occurred near Lake City, just south of the Georgia border.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
The NHC is pretty much done with the wave, according to them rotation has slowed as i observed yesterday, and so i do not see much more for the wave to do than to produce rains, especially when it taps into the moisture around the monsoon trough.

If your reasoning is right (it probably is) then NHC will lower the chances of the AOI to near 0%.

morning guys
the Tropical wave with 1015mb low looks good. its growing a upper level anticyclone on top of it and on WV looks to be keeping dry air out. looking at the steering flow for 1500Z it show a track that would not track the wave and its 1015mb low into S America, but have a track simmilar to Charley 04, Dean 07, and Gustav 08. vort is kinda low however I think that will change as it gets better orgainised, as upper levels winds die down, as the upper level anticyclone develops more.

Although I said what I said I still think the NHC should and might leave the 10% yellow circle on the wave and I think we will not really see much development out of this wave till it reaches between 50W-55W

Quoting Bobbyweather:

If your reasoning is right (it probably is) then NHC will lower the chances of the AOI to near 0%.

nah, just in case they will leave it at 10%.

Quoting sunlinepr:


Jun 27, 2012
Over Two Feet of Rain Soaks Florida

Tropical Storm Debby (now downgraded to a tropical depression) has moved over the Florida Panhandle and is out to sea, leaving behind flooded towns and at least one fatality. The National Weather Service has measured in excess of two feet of rain from this system. A map of the rainfall totals from June 23-27, 2012 shows that the highest amounts occurred near Lake City, just south of the Georgia border.

Yet, the wildfires out west and the heat (i.e. global warming) get the top billing on this "tropical weather" blog.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
morning guys
the Tropical wave with 1015mb low looks good. its growing a upper level anticyclone on top of it and on WV looks to be keeping dry air out. looking at the steering flow for 1500Z it show a track that would not track the wave and its 1015mb low into S America, but have a track simmilar to Charley 04, Dean 07, and Gustav 08. vort is kinda low however I think that will change as it gets better orgainised, as upper levels winds die down, as the upper level anticyclone develops more.

It is looking interesting. The one thing it has against it is climatology.

Quoting NOLALawyer:


Yet, the wildfires out west and the heat (i.e. global warming) get the top billing on this "tropical weather" blog.

Global warming had nothing to do with our discussion.
Fires and Heat are problems that are affecting the whole US.
We have discussed Debby periodically if something comes up.

Quoting luvtogolf:


It is looking interesting. The one thing it has against it is climatology.

well look at it this way every thing so far in the tropics this season have been against climatology

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
They're giving this a 10% chance of regeneration?

*frowns*

I think those should be much higher. It's already pretty much detached from the frontal boundary it got tangled in.

Her vort looks really stretched out. I think she is still somewhat attached to the front, but starting to break off. That said, it is going to take some time for her to regain tropical characteristics, and I honestly don't think she has that time with the high pressure pushing her east. We shall see, though, it will definitely be interesting.

Quoting NOLALawyer:


Yet, the wildfires out west and the heat (i.e. global warming) get the top billing on this "tropical weather" blog.

Current events vs. past events.

Rapidly developing weather-related info versus slowly developing weather-related info.

Also, the "heat" you cite is weather. it is not climate.

I would expect ex-Debby's chances for redevelopment to be upped significantly at the next TWO. 10% is far too low.

I actually think that the wave will achieve invest status at least and it will be at 20% at the next two or the one after.

White heat, red hot; East Jacksonville

Quoting allancalderini:
I actually think that the wave will achieve invest status at least and it will be at 20% at the next two or the one after.

no invest.
or i eat crow

plus this time of June we start to look at origin and track in july

Quoting sunlinepr:


Jun 27, 2012
Over Two Feet of Rain Soaks Florida

Tropical Storm Debby (now downgraded to a tropical depression) has moved over the Florida Panhandle and is out to sea, leaving behind flooded towns and at least one fatality. The National Weather Service has measured in excess of two feet of rain from this system. A map of the rainfall totals from June 23-27, 2012 shows that the highest amounts occurred near Lake City, just south of the Georgia border.

That map is inaccurate, I got more than 4 inches in West Palm Beach. But according to that map, there was no rainfall in my area.

I think we may get invest 97L either today or tommrow or Saturday

well. debby sure looks healthy now that it isn't considered a tropical cyclone... :D

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
morning guys
the Tropical wave with 1015mb low looks good. its growing a upper level anticyclone on top of it and on WV looks to be keeping dry air out. looking at the steering flow for 1500Z it show a track that would not track the wave and its 1015mb low into S America, but have a track simmilar to Charley 04, Dean 07, and Gustav 08. vort is kinda low however I think that will change as it gets better orgainised, as upper levels winds die down, as the upper level anticyclone develops more.

Hey dude whats up! I haven't seen you since Debby formed. The wave is holding pretty strong could develop. Very interesting that there is a parade of waves rolling from Africa. Also there is a massive wave over Africa that will emerge into the Atlantic by Saturday could bear some watching down the road as well.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think we may get invest 97L either today or tommrow or Saturday

Agree

Morning, everybody.

Besides for a few abnormally dry areas, Debby pretty much got rid Florida's drought.

Quoting Ameister12:

Wow

740 Bobbyweather: [inre the map in comment724] What are the black dots on the SST map? Is it just a borderline of 80F?

Yeah, it forms the border around the 26degreeCelsius that is considered the minimum* SeaSurfaceTemperature needed to spin up a Low into a TropicalCyclone... and to keep one spinning.

* There have been extremely rare exceptions of spinups below 26C(79degreesFahrenheit).
But there are a lot of examples of TCs continuing to spin for a significant amount of time (nearly always weakening in the process) after crossing over into cooler waters.

Quoting FloodingDownInTexas:
well. debby sure looks healthy now that it isn't considered a tropical cyclone... :D

Yeah it still have its circulation and could be packing TS force winds at the moment. It looking the more symmetrical now than in its lifespan. I believe the NHC is being way too conservative with both AOI . Post-Debby should be 40% and the Atlantic wave a 20% chance at 2pm.

Quoting Hurricanes305:


Hey dude whats up! I haven't seen you since Debby formed. The wave is holding pretty strong could develop. Very interesting that there is a parade of waves rolling from Africa. Also there is a massive wave over Africa that will emerge into the Atlantic by Saturday could bear some watching down the road as well.

hey I'm good I have been on throughout debbys life right through landfall to post-trop. yeah the wave is doing just fine I think for this wave and most of the waves that coome off and develops or is trying to develop I think it not going to develop till it reaches 50W-55W

Quoting Hurricanes305:


Yeah it still have its circulation and could be packing TS force winds at the moment. It looking the more symmetrical now than in its lifespan. I believe the NHC is being way too conservative with both AOI . Post-Debby should be 40% and the Atlantic wave a 20% chance at 2pm.

totally agree
40%-EX-DEBBY
20%-PRE-97L

I have an updated tropical Atlantic blog post...check it out...

Received positive comments on it from both new and current readers about its informativeness...let me know what you think too....

"Besides for a few abnormally dry areas, Debby pretty much got rid Florida's drought" 779 Ameister 12

I always wondered how they counted drought. We are looking at a map of how dry is an area? Because there is a huge rain event, which saturates the ground, does that really mean an end of drought? If the one event is just that and the heat continues and not enough subsequent rain or what people refer to "normal rainfall" does not begin, aren't we still in a drought? Even if the ground, at the present, is saturated? I know some of you out there are knowledgable about this.

I don't like El Nino, and I don't like the SAL either.

Quoting Hurricanes305:


Yeah it still have its circulation and could be packing TS force winds at the moment. It looking the more symmetrical now than in its lifespan. I believe the NHC is being way too conservative with both AOI . Post-Debby should be 40% and the Atlantic wave a 20% chance at 2pm.

I agree, the wave in the atlantic appears to be in solid conditions... out of the dry saharan dust, low wind shear, the circumstances are good, even though it is not well organized it could definitely develop some

Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I have an updated tropical Atlantic blog post...check it out...

Received positive comments on it from both new and current readers about its informativeness...let me know what you think too....

Just read your blog do you think the AOI in the CATL will develop down the road.

Does anyone see that line in the atlantic radar starting at 55 west 30 north like the last few frames? I wonder what that is...

I really want to see the 2pm TWO. Either that or a tap into the NHC to see what they're thinking.

Quoting lightning75:


So where do you think the wave is going if it develops?

I see a few tracks it may take
#1 Charly 04


#2 Dean 07


#3 Gustav 08

Quoting LargoFl:

A yellow circle by NC..

There's a chance NOLALawyer isn't three feet, green, and angrily guarding a bridge, but I doubt it.

Quoting stormpetrol:

hey stormpetrol what up

Yesterday

Today


Just echoing the sentiment of many other bloggers this morning...the wave to watch is the one over Ghana/Togo/Benin. Just as dry air is working against our current AOI, the AOI is also pounding away at the dry air. The two other waves that precede our Ghana wave will help to create a moist environment for what looks to be our first impressive CV invest. Our CATL yellow circle has lost some of its curvature since yesterday and also much of its convection. I could see the wave holding together just enough to enter the Caribbean, but I don't see anything big coming out of it.

Quoting cyclonekid:
I really want to see the 2pm TWO. Either that or a tap into the NHC to see what they're thinking.

That wave is doing what most of them do every season : cyclic fluctuation in term of convective coverage. Due to SAL presence to the north west of it, I don't think it will win the classic battle against the dry air. And on top of that, it's june and La Nina is gone.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I see a few tracks it may take
#1 Charly 04


#2 Dean 07


#3 Gustav 08

It will be closest to Dean's track and will be a wave its whole life

N-S steering is very weak, and the monsoon belt will be in its way. It will phase in and dissipate