Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting washingtonian115:
I wonder where Ernesto will pop up first....

Carribean Sea I think in 2 weeks I think

Just Saying
Taco :o)

Quoting weatherh98:
517 pm during hurricane season and im alone.

Your not alone I'm here too just checking on things....

Taco :o)

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I'll be back in a month, more or less.

Will wunderground be similar, yet different?

The same as it ever was 'cept different.
How's that?
Once in a Lifetime
Stay safe!

Meanwhile across the sea in India,

New Delhi, India Weather
Forecast, Updated: Jun 28, 2012, 1:43am Local Time

Today Jun 28 Sunny High 107°F, Low 87°F
Fri Jun 29 High 108°, Low 90°
Sat Jun 30 High 107°, Low 89°
Sun Jul 1 High 107°, Low 90°
Mon Jul 2 High 106° Low 87°

NEW DELHI - Power outages in India, now enduring the peak demand of hot summer months, are running to as long as eight to 10 hours in northern cities, including the capital, and while large parts of the country continue to be off grid, rural areas with access to electricity can be without power for over 20 hours at a stretch.
Full Story:
Sweltering India runs out of energy

I'll be back in the NE carib by july 12! I'm hoping for interesting weather like in 2010 and 2011!!

Quoting stormchaser19:
I'm from Dominican Republic, we do not have a major hurricane hitting us since 1998 George, this year there will be another?

I live next door (Puerto Rico) and Georges was out last hurricane, period. Irene came close to being our first hurricane in 13 years but didn't quite make it, this year marks 14 years since a hurricane hit PR directly.

GREAT POST BIOWIZARD!!

Sometimes the blog reminds me of the story of the two psychics who met on a street.

They stared at each other for a moment and the first one said, "You're fine, How am I?"

BIOWIZARD greatest post of all time!!

How's everyone this evening? :P

Got a tan while cleaning and painting in the yard and had to stop to drink lots of water. Beautiful weather and some intense heat, thanks Sahara dust! Painted a wall and it was completely dry in 5minutes. Eeek...

Quoting Grothar:
Sometimes the blog reminds me of the story of the two psychics who met on a street.

They stared at each other for a moment and the first one said, "You're fine, How am I?"

Or the two meteorologists walking down Broadway in drizzle and fog, came to a streetlight that went all the way up into the fog.

One says "Wow. That's tall. Wonder how tall that pole is?".

Other says "huum. My shoes are exactly 12 inches long. It would take some work but we could unbolt the pole and lie it down and I could pace it off"

Response: "Silly guy. That wouldn't work at all! I was asking how tall it is.. not how wide it is"

Quoting JLPR2:


I live next door (Puerto Rico) and Georges was out last hurricane, period. Irene came close to being our first hurricane in 13 years but didn't quite make it, this year marks 14 years since a hurricane hit PR directly.

Yes,,,, it was our latest hurricane of all times....

and Irene our almost latest hurricane of all times to become our latest hurricane....

I think it'll detach from the front and become a tropical cyclone again over the following days. May eventually impact Bermuda and Newfoundland.

I think the CATL wave might go up to 20% at 7 cst.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Annoyed by truth, are you? It happens. ;-)

Look, there are normally three different types of high temperature records discussed:

1) Daily records: "The high today in Anytown was 101. That beat the previous record for the day of 100."

2) Monthly records: "The high today in Anytown was 105. That's the highest temperature ever recorded in Anytown during the month of June."

3) All-time records: "The high today in Anytown was 110. That's the new all-time record for Anytown. That's the highest temperature ever recorded in Anytown during any month."

I'm not sure how you've misinterpreted that as hyperbole. Now, if you're one of those who believes that every mention of every record needs to come with the qualifier "in recorded history" or "since recordkeeping began" or some variant, you're probably out of luck; it's pretty well understood that when one uses the term "record", they are, after all, referring to the record.

Next month the Olympics begin. A headline reading "Jamaica's Usain Bolt set a new world record in the 100 meter in London today" is just fine; no one but the most dull would be bothered and confused that the headline didn't instead read, "Jamaica's Usain Bolt set a new world record in the 100 meter in London today, that world record meaning the fastest time anyone in recorded history so far as we know has run a 100-meter race on a professional track while an objective party was watching and keeping speed with a calibrated timepiece."

But was she on steroids?

Couldn't resist, sorry...

Quoting Grothar:
Sometimes the blog reminds me of the story of the two psychics who met on a street.

They stared at each other for a moment and the first one said, "You're fine, How am I?"

That is awesome...

I'd hate to be under that right now..

Outside of anything tropical developing rest of the Summer I think the Story will be the Intense Heat and Fires in the Nation. 109 yesterday and 106 today, 2 hottest days ever In June for my area. Only reason temp wasnt as high today is because humidity went up. The Outlook for July and August for majority of Country is Hot and Above Normal in Temps. Hope everyone in Florida is OK, I am just surviving the drought and heat again. Hello to all.

Quoting JLPR2:


I live next door (Puerto Rico) and Georges was out last hurricane, period. Irene came close to being our first hurricane in 13 years but didn't quite make it, this year marks 14 years since a hurricane hit PR directly.

Jeanne was a hurricane in 2004 i think

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Outside of anything tropical developing rest of the Summer I think the Story will be the Intense Heat and Fires in the Nation. 109 yesterday and 106 today, 2 hottest days ever In June for my area. Only reason temp wasnt as high today is because humidity went up. The Outlook for July and August for majority of Country is Hot and Above Normal in Temps. Hope everyone in Florida is OK, I am just surviving the drought and heat again. Hello to all.

Over the last few hours, the BOC AOI has gotten 'hotter' while the AOI just West of it in the EPAC has gotten 'cooler'. Transfer of energy? You can't really call it teleconnective (even though Hermine got that descriptive) but it seems to be a transfer, nonetheless.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY...LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The MJO may not determine it solely, but it is a huge factor for months before August and in/after October. We're likely to get a tropical cyclone during strong upward phase pulses, and it should be quiet during strong downward phase pulses.

In a normal Year!!

Quoting weatherh98:


i dont know where are you going?

I believe that was a reference to Modoki El Nino

185 biowizard: The incessant use of the descriptor, "all-time", is getting very annoying. "All-time record". "All-time highest". "All-time wettest".

What part of 'record' don't you denialists get? Ifn it ain't recorded, it ain't a part of the record.
What part of 'history' don't you denialists get? Ifn it ain't written down, it ain't a part of history.

To you it may be annoying, but to anybody with even a smidgeon of curiosity about how the world works, this continuous and ever-increasing flow of record-breaking, history-making events shows a near-future that's gonna be a rougher ride than we can imagine.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Good to see you tropicalanalyst13.

Climatologically the first half of July is not that active so a pause in activity until late July would not surprise me.

Climatologically May and June aren't active either. Already had a Beryl landfall within a few miles and most recently the Debby debacle. A reprieve is welcome.

Nvm

Quoting Gearsts:
Nvm

Oh no... Jeanne!!! How I remember her!!

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
10 pictures of Colorado fire

http://mashable.com/2012/06/27/colorado-wildfire/ #72215Smoke-and-Ash-Consume-Town

Give me a Hurricane anyday!!

Severe Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "DINDO" (DOKSURI)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Thursday, 28 June 2012
Tropical Storm "DINDO" has maintained its strength as it continues to move towards Extreme Northern Luzon.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.)260 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.3°N, 124.4°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 75 kph near the center
gustiness of up 90 kph
Movement: West Northwest at 19 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Friday morning:
190 km North Northwest of Aparri, Cagayan
Saturday morning:
530 km Northwest of Basco, Batanes
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS # Luzon
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds) Cagayan
Calayan Group of Islands
Babuyan Group of Islands
Isabela
Batanes Group of Islands
Apayao
Kalinga
Ilocos Norte
Abra
Mt. Province
Signal No. 1
(45-60 kph winds)
La Union
Ilocos Sur
Aurora
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Benguet


Estimated rainfall amount is from 15 - 25 mm per hour (heavy - intense) within the 400 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.

Tropical Storm "DINDO" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains over Southern Luzon and Visayas, especially the western section, which may trigger landslides and flashfloods and possible occurrence of storm surge over the coastal areas under PSWS # 2.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon and Western Visayas due to the combined effect of the Tropical Storm and the Southwest Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY...LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'd hate to be under that right now..

I imagine that massive flooding and mudslides are occuring in Luzon.

Quoting Gearsts:
Jeanne was a hurricane in 2004 i think

Nope, almost a hurricane as well, I believe the highest winds when it was crossing PR where 73mph. Became a hurricane after crossing PR.

Quoting sunlinepr:


Yes,,,, it was our latest hurricane of all times....

and Irene our almost latest hurricane of all times to become our latest hurricane....

XD

We have been very lucky, also an interesting fact, its been 84years since a Cat 5 hurricane hit Puerto Rico.

The last one being San Felipe II also known as the Okeechobee hurricane in 1928.

Intresting story

NOAA: Data from New Satellite Implemented in Record Time; Meteorologists Are Now Using Information for Weather Forecasts
These models are the foundation for all public and private weather forecasts in the United States.
"It takes tremendous effort to ensure data from a new satellite are accurate and ready to be used in advanced numerical weather models. Reaching this milestone clearly demonstrates the effectiveness of the partnership between NOAA and NASA and also speaks to the urgency both agencies have for getting these data into NOAA's weather models to enhance our forecasts," said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA deputy administrator.

Link

Quoting JLPR2:


Nope, almost a hurricane as well, I believe the highest winds when it was crossing PR where 73mph. Became a hurricane after crossing PR.

It had an eye feature just before it made landfall,but recon didn't found winds sufficient to upgrade to hurricane.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'd hate to be under that right now..

Funny how PAGASA is saying it hasn't even mad landfall. What they smokin'

Quoting JLPR2:


XD

We have been very lucky, also an interesting fact, its been 84years since a Cat 5 hurricane hit Puerto Rico.

The last one being San Felipe II also known as the Okeechobee hurricane in 1928.

COMING SOON! to a city near you.

Editorial: Tough questions as Colorado homes burn

As more and more homes are built in fire-prone areas, Colorado must consider the implications.

POSTED: 06/27/2012 05:41:48 PM MDT
UPDATED: 06/27/2012 05:42:05 PM MDT

By The Denver Post
Like many of you, we watched in horror Tuesday night as cameras captured the stunning images of the firestorm swallowing homes in the foothills near Colorado Springs.

...

We do not mean that as criticism of any of the victims of this year's fires. But this fire season serves as a wake-up call to an increasingly troubling issue confronting Colorado.

The total of at least 450 homes destroyed by wildfires since 2010 exceeds the 387 homes lost between 1976 and 2006, according to data from the Colorado State Forest Service.

A U.S. Forest Service analysis found that 40 percent of homes built in the U.S. between 1990 and 2000 were in the WUI [wildland-urban interface] In Colorado, the figure in that time was 50 percent.

A CSU analysis expects a 300 percent increase in WUI acreage in the next couple decades - from 715,500 acres in 2007 to 2.16 million acres in 2030. At the same time, hundreds of millions of dollars have been cut from the federal firefighting budget.

...

http://www.denverpost.com/opinion/ci_20954884/edi torial-tough-questions-colorado-homes-burn

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

COMING SOON! to a city near you.

If a hurricane like that hit PR PR will literally disappear, our economy is bad enough already.

And I'm almost positive a hurricane of that magnitude would cause some problems to my house, nothing too bad, but something...

Click images for loops.

Philippines Doppler Radar.

I'm going to take advantage of this lull and resume my TCRs.

Quoting JLPR2:


If a hurricane like that hit PR PR will literally disappear, our economy is bad enough already.

And I'm almost positive a hurricane of that magnitude would cause some problems to my house, nothing too bad, but something...

Rita was a five at that time with winds of up to 180.It is reported that gust reached as high as 239mph in the eye.It was posted on the blog somewhere.

Quoting biowizard:
Well, for all you "ALL-TIME" fanatics, I still prefer the British phrase, "since records began". Time goes on, and is part of All Time (that ever was, is now, and ever shall be).

Here endeth the thread! :-)

Brian

Fine, except Lord Windemere's all-time record in the crepitation contest will never be surpassed. The event was recorded and available for free on the net.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

COMING SOON! to a city near you.

OMG LOOK AT IT ITS COMIN RIGHT AT ME

Quoting washingtonian115:
Rita was a five at that time with winds of up to 180.It is reported that gust reached as high as 239mph in the eye.It was posted on the blog somewhere.

I cant even imagine the time I would be without power due to a monster like that. Maybe I would take a plane out of here and watch from somewhere in the US. xD

Quoting JLPR2:


I cant even imagine the time I would be without power due to monster like that. Maybe I would take plane out of here and watch from somewhere in the US. xD

Probably a good idea, dude. Even I have no desire to tangle with a Category 5, and I'm ALL for hurricane chasing.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Probably a good idea, dude. Even I have no desire to tangle with a Category 5, and I'm ALL for hurricane chasing.

That's because you're a baby.

I would love to be in a Category 5..in an open field...with no debris anywhere...and no rain.

Quoting Patrap:
WAVEtrak Atlantic

Pat

Thanks so much for that link.

Lindy

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's because you're a baby.

I would love to be in a Category 5..in an open field...with no debris anywhere...and no rain.

I may be a baby, but you're a wuss. No debris? Open field? What about storm surge, falling trees, sand blown so hard sparks could form?

Yeah, that's what I thought.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Probably a good idea, dude. Even I have no desire to tangle with a Category 5, and I'm ALL for hurricane chasing.

My grandma was a little girl when San Felipe II hit the island, that most have been one heck of an experience. It had winds of 160mph when it hit and I assume the gusts reached 200+ mph.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's because you're a baby.

I would love to be in a Category 5..in an open field...with no debris anywhere...and no rain.

Hm... no rain...

That sounds almost impossible. xD