Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Tropical Storm Bonnie... what a joke.

The center passed directly over my house in southeast Louisiana, and all she could show for it... was a wind shift.

Quoting KoritheMan:
I have devised a theory as to why recurvature is so predominant in some years, while not quite so in others. The most recent example is 2010, where the subtropical ridge started out strong, bringing Alex, TD Two, and Bonnie into the Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, a preexisting weakness within the subtropical ridge developed due to an unusually deep trough moving through the United States. Colin took advantage of this and followed the path of least resistance out to sea. Danielle followed shortly thereafter, and assisted the continuous troughs in deamplifying (weakening) the ridge. Earl, Fiona, and Igor would soon follow. The continuous barrage of hurricanes moving through the Atlantic ridge, coupled with frequent troughs moving through the eastern US, disallows for a mean storm track toward the United States coast. Amidst that pattern, the ridge simply can't rebuild. It doesn't have time.

Venture your thoughts, criticisms, applauds, what have you. I'm ready.

Sound good to me man.

Quoting tropicfreak:


NWS Wakefield is leaning towards the GFS, which thinks the heat wave will last until mid next week, then a "cooldown".

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS A
FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. 850
MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN AROUND 23 DEGREES CELSIUS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SUGGESTING CONTINUED HIGHS AROUND ABOVE 100 DEGREES INLAND
AND MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST. THE MAIN UNKNOWN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IS THE TIMING AND EFFECT SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING
IN THE NW FLOW. THESE COULD BRING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND EVEN
ISOLATED THUNDER BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO STOP THE BUILDING HEAT.
CONCERN BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL THE THE PROLONGED
NATURE OF THE HEAT WAVE AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS PUSHING
HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105. HAVE BUMPED DEWPOINTS UP A FEW DEGREES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A DEGREE. HAVE ALSO
RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS AS ONCE WE START HITTING 100 DEGREES FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD AS WELL. SHOULD WE
INDEED EXPERIENCE A RUN OF 4+ DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 THE IMPACT OF THE HEAT ON AT RISK POPULATIONS
SUCH AS CHILDREN, ELDERLY AND THOSE WORKING OR PLAYING OUTDOORS FOR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME WILL INCREASE.

THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE EVEN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT BUT HIGH STILL LOOK
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. FOR THE MOST PART HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED WHICH HAS PERFORMED THE BEST IN THE
LONG RANGE OVER THE PAST WEEK.

I know up North they have cooling centers when they have their heat waves..I havent heard anything being initiated down here for those that dont have AC..having only a fan would only make things worst..

Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Tropical Storm Bonnie... what a joke.

You mean tropical thunderstorm Bonnie.

Quoting Tribucanes:
Nice Korietheman, sounds like a thesis paper you should write. I think your on to something. You could look back over the last ten years and check out the subtropical ridge and how it's interacted with storm track to test this hypothesis. Don't think modern science has the greatest handle on steering currents and why and when they change. What does the subtropical ridge tell you about this season then?

I do intend on doing more research. Perhaps I'll write a blog about it.

As for the ridge, the overall pattern thus far has favored a much stronger one than we've seen in recent years, with the mean trough tracks over the eastern US farther north. I don't think Debby was strong enough to break that pattern, because the central US heat ridge is forecast to amplify eastward.

2 citys that are most unprepared for a Hurricane are Philly, and Tampa.
Tampa is tradionally thought of as a vunerable city that has lucked out.
Philly, at the head of Delaware bay would get desemnated by storm surge, as Delaware bay is about a funnel that would sent a large swell of water into the city, and specificly its southern areas. for this too happen, the storm has to have a westward componate up the coast of Delaware, so it would be a difficult storm to happen, similar to a NY storm, only a 100-125 miles south.

Quoting tropicfreak:


You mean tropical thunderstorm Bonnie.

thunderfart.. thunderstorm... call it whatever you want.

Quoting Methurricanes:
2 citys that are most unprepared for a Hurricane are Philly, and Tampa.
Tampa is tradionally thought of as a vunerable city that has lucked out.
Philly, at the head of Delaware bay would get desemnated by storm surge, as Delaware bay is about a funnel that would sent a large swell of water into the city, and specificly its southern areas. for this too happen, the storm has to have a westward componate up the coast of Delaware, so it would be a difficult storm to happen, similar to a NY storm, only a 100-125 miles south.

what about Miami?

Quoting KoritheMan:


The center passed directly over my house in southeast Louisiana, and all she could show for it... was a wind shift.

I was offshore when Bonnie passed. Came right over our rig. We got a good cool gust of wind and about a 20 minute rain shower.

Quoting BrickellBreeze:


what about Miami?

They have been hit, Andrew was only 20 years ago

Quoting KoritheMan:
I have devised a theory as to why recurvature is so predominant in some years, while not quite so in others. The most recent example is 2010, where the subtropical ridge started out strong, bringing Alex, TD Two, and Bonnie into the Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, a preexisting weakness within the subtropical ridge developed due to an unusually deep trough moving through the United States. Colin took advantage of this and followed the path of least resistance out to sea. Danielle followed shortly thereafter, and assisted the continuous troughs in deamplifying (weakening) the ridge. Earl, Fiona, and Igor would soon follow. The continuous barrage of hurricanes moving through the Atlantic ridge, coupled with frequent troughs moving through the eastern US, disallows for a mean storm track toward the United States coast. Amidst that pattern, the ridge simply can't rebuild. It doesn't have time.

Venture your thoughts, criticisms, applauds, what have you. I'm ready.

So you are debunking the "Pumping the ridge" theory?

Quoting KoritheMan:


The center passed directly over my house in southeast Louisiana, and all she could show for it... was a wind shift.

Her pitiful remnants.

So the ridge in the US is going to move east and merge with or strengthen the Subtropical ridge?

Quoting HimacaneBrees:


I was offshore when Bonnie passed. Came right over our rig. We got a good cool gust of wind and about a 20 minute rain shower.

I kept thinking "Okay, seriously. Now is the time to terminate advisories. Yeah she's generating convection, but it's sporadic and disorganized."

I'm not bashing the NHC, as I realize the oil spill probably a played a large part in the continuance of advisories all the way to the coast, but it was obvious for quite awhile that Bonnie was not a tropical cyclone.

Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Tropical Storm Bonnie... what a joke.

Be careful..I said the same thing and was blatantly castigated...Bonnie was a tropical wussy...Look at this....Absolutely fricken pathetic..Does not even look like a cyclone on our best satellite pictures...lolI went thru T-Waves with mo punch..

Quoting Methurricanes:
They have been hit, Andrew was only 20 years ago

Not Downtown Miami.

Evening all, I have lived in New Orleans since 2004......and this kind of heat, with no cloud cover and no off shore flow is something I haven't experience since that summer before Katrina. The SSTs in the Gulf are going to be insane if this continues for two months.

Must say, the central Atlantic wave have gained a lot of latitude and looks to be a contender for a legitimate threat to the Caribbean.

GFS brings is pretty high in latitude, but kills it over the larger islands.

Euro keeps it farther south, and seems to keep it as a wave or maybe even TD in the middle of the Caribbean.

Quoting ncstorm:


So you are debunking the "Pumping the ridge" theory?

The ridge does get pumped, but that is only with strong hurricanes. Moreover, the typical outflow pattern of a tropical cyclone generally doesn't allow for the ridge to become amplified to the point where it becomes a "super ridge".

Quoting hydrus:
Be careful..I said the same thing and was blatantly castigated...Bonnie was a tropical wussy...Look at this....Absolutely fricken pathetic..Does not even look like a cyclone on our best satellite pictures...lolI went thru T-Waves with mo punch..

I went through my shower with more punch.

Quoting Terradad:
So the ridge in the US is going to move east and merge with or strengthen the Subtropical ridge?

I think so. So does the GFS.

Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Not Downtown Miami.

and something that I did not take into acount was the large population growth over tha last 20 years in south Florida, but it is famous for its Hurricane vunerablity, unlike any West Florida or Northeast city.

Quoting ncstorm:


I know up North they have cooling centers when they have their heat waves..I havent heard anything being initiated down here for those that dont have AC..having only a fan would only make things worst..

Yeah here in central VA the city of Richmond and Petersburg has set up cooling shelters. I believe they may have cooling shelters set up for suburban areas too... not 100% sure, depends on the area and how low end the neighborhoods are.

Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Not Downtown Miami.

Hard to imagine what Miami would have looked like if Andrew plowed straight through it.

Quoting KoritheMan:


I kept thinking "Okay, seriously. Now is the time to terminate advisories. Yeah she's generating convection, but it's sporadic and disorganized."

I'm not bashing the NHC, as I realize the oil spill probably a played a large part in the continuance of advisories all the way to the coast, but it was obvious for quite awhile that Bonnie was not a tropical cyclone.

Yeah you right. We actually rigged down to evacuate for that rain shower lol. But we never left the rig. It passed then we went back to work. What part of SE La. are you? Denham Springs is where I call home.

Quoting HimacaneBrees:


I was offshore when Bonnie passed. Came right over our rig. We got a good cool gust of wind and about a 20 minute rain shower.

. Amazing that you even had that..:)

Quoting hydrus:
Be careful..I said the same thing and was blatantly castigated...Bonnie was a tropical wussy...Look at this....Absolutely fricken pathetic..Does not even look like a cyclone on our best satellite pictures...lolI went thru T-Waves with mo punch..

I'll be honest, I have no memory of that storm, and that was just 2 years ago, and it must have passed right over me.

That's crazy, it must have been really weak...

Quoting RTSplayer:


I'll be honest, I have no memory of that storm, and that was just 2 years ago, and it must have passed right over me.

That's crazy, it must have been really weak...

I find it hard to believe it was even a TS... let alone have max winds of up to 45 mph.

Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Yeah you right. We actually rigged down to evacuate for that rain shower lol. But we never left the rig. It passed then we went back to work. What part of SE La. are you? Denham Springs is where I call home.

Prairieville.

Alright guys Im out for the night..Korithe..good theory!!

Until the next model runs, I bid you all adieu..

Quoting KoritheMan:


Prairieville.

Think I've heard of it LOL.

Quoting hydrus:
Hard to imagine what Miami would have looked like if Andrew plowed straight through it.

a barren wasteland
looking more like a swamp
then anything else
thats with sustain cat 5 winds
it would be wiped off the map
it has happen before

Debby finally catching up to the moisture she ejected east. I'm thinking she may go back tropical as soon as tomorrow, and by Saturday if she can, for the first time ever, fill in the west side; then we may get a sixty mph TS again by late Saturday in my opinion. I don't think she's done putting on a show for us. NHC track has always been just a step slow with Debby, so we shall see.

Still think it dissipated south of even here:

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


a barren wasteland
looking more like a swamp
then anything else
thats with sustain cat 5 winds
it would be wiped off the map
it has happen before

Did Miami even exist 20 years ago? Half that city was built in the last 15 years, lol.

The ATL wave is currently under low shear



I always like to look at the 500mb heights.

Keeper, has a modern large city center been wiped off the map in the last fifty years? Have skyscrapers anywhere ever taken Cat. 5 winds directly?

Quoting Grothar:
The ATL wave is currently under low shear



I always like to look at the 500mb heights.

I think the NHC is being a bit conservative.

Quoting Tribucanes:
Keeper, has a modern large city center been wiped off the map in the last fifty years? Have skyscrapers anywhere ever taken Cat. 5 winds directly?

Not directly, at least definitely not on U.S. soil.

I don't know if a sky scraper anywhere in the world has every been in the eye wall of a legit cat 5 landfall...

Quoting KoritheMan:


I think the NHC is being a bit conservative.

When aren't the conservative

Quoting Tribucanes:
Keeper, has a modern large city center been wiped off the map in the last fifty years? Have skyscrapers anywhere ever taken Cat. 5 winds directly?

of coarse not but we can not rule out the chance that sooner or later it will and can occur

Quoting Tribucanes:
Keeper, has a modern large city center been wiped off the map in the last fifty years? Have skyscrapers anywhere ever taken Cat. 5 winds directly?

Yes, Cat 5 winds in Tornados, but not a Hurricane, Fort Worth,TX and Springfield, MA have had tornados directly hit Highrises, and they survives, both F3s

We should be tracking "Daniel" in about a weeks time according to the ECMWF and GFS.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


a barren wasteland
looking more like a swamp
then anything else
thats with sustain cat 5 winds
it would be wiped off the map
it has happen before

I don't know of a large Metropolitan city being directly hit with the exception of Miami in 1926. While Andrew struck in Miami-Dade and there was very bad destruction North of the center, Miami itself was not directly in the path. I would say it was a good 15-20 South.

but again there have been lots of places that have experienced these conditions and been pretty well wiped of the map
there are lots of reports in earlier days where large scale population centres for there time have disappeared and all that lived there as well

Quoting KoritheMan:


I think the NHC is being a bit conservative.

Yes. That's to be expected though. It's June. There's no way it could develop? Right...? :P

Quoting Methurricanes:
Yes, Cat 5 winds in Tornados, but not a Hurricane, Fort Worth,TX and Springfield, MA have had tornados directly hit Highrises, and they survives, both F3s

Ok, that's a bit of a stretch, because only the upper end of F3 overlaps with the bottom end of Cat 5 sustained winds.

Camille was 190mph sustained, which is the upper end of EF4 on the Enhanced Fujita tornado scale, not counting gusts of probably 215 to 225.

Labor Day and Wilma (given the latest revision of it's wind speeds,) would be considered EF5 even if rated as tornadoes.

Plus a tornado lasts a few seconds to a minute or two for any given location.

A hurricane lasts several hours.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We should be tracking "Daniel" in about a weeks time according to the ECMWF and GFS.

I wonder if it doesn't come from the CATL wave?

columbus wrote of such things in his diaries

Yes,The ridge generally move to the east when august is coming,but if you see in this gfs image in 144 hours will be july 6th and the ridge still to strong and over US at this time, if you see covers up texas, so still to see what happens but if the pattern continues will be a gulf season

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We should be tracking "Daniel" in about a weeks time according to the ECMWF and GFS.

When they are in agreement, it's bound to happen