Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Air quality degrades as heat spreads east
Posted by: Angela Fritz, 18:53 GMT le 29 juin 2012 +39
For the seventh day in a row we're talking about heat as it spreads into the Mid-Atlantic and East Coast. The hottest temperatures in the country will be from Missouri southeast to Georgia and north to the Washington D.C. area. Why not Florida? Moisture tends to keep the temperature regulated; the worst heat waves this country has seen have also coincided with widespread drought. Given the extreme to exceptional drought that many states can't get rid of, this heat wave isn't all that surprising. Air quality is becoming more of an issue the longer the heat sticks around. Air quality alerts have been issued for many major cities from Kansas City to New York, including Chicago, Detroit, and Atlanta. Chicago is seeing some relief from the heat today in the form of thunderstorms—northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana are under a severe thunderstorm watch. Washington D.C. is pushing its all-time record high of 106°, which is the high that BestForecast is going with. You can see the all-time record highs for almost all major cities here.


Figure 1. BestForecast high temperature for Friday.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, will likely post two blogs today and tomorrow this week's heat, but for now, he wraps up Thursday's significant temperature records:

• 109° in Chesterfiled, Missouri (well short of state monthly record of 112°)
• 108° in Lawrenceville, Illinois (ties all-time state June monthly record of 108° at Palestine in June 1954)
• 108° in Huntingsburg, Indiana (well short of state monthly record of 111°)
• 107° in Defiance, Ohio (1° short of all-time state June record-108° in Germantown in 1934)
• 111° in Evening Shade, Arkansas (short of state June record of 113° in 1936)
• 108° in Smyrna, Tennessee (short of 110° state record in 1936)
• 107° in Little Rock, Arkansas (all-time June monthly record)

Waldo Canyon Fire now 15% contained

The Denver Post is reporting that 346 homes have been lost to the Waldo Canyon Fire, which is burning northwest of Colorado Springs. They also report that one person has died and another is missing in the area of the blaze. The fire has been 15% contained since Thursday night, and the acreage is down to 16,750, welcome news to a terrified city.


Figure 2. Satellite imagery of Invest 97L, which is expected to drift west into the Caribbean over the next few days.

Invest 97L

A tropical wave in the central main development region of the North Atlantic is still producing thunderstorm activity as it moves west, and the National Hurricane Center has increased its chance of development to 20%. 97L's circulation continues to be moderate and in the past day has realigned with the thunderstorm activity, which is likely why NHC gave the go to invest the wave and begin running models on it. This wave continues to be in some moderate wind shear, 10-15 knots, and sea surface temperature is around average, 28° C (82° F), which is warm enough to support tropical development. Many of the track models are forecasting 97L to continue trekking west into the Caribbean, crossing the Lesser Antilles around July 1.

Angela

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951. gulfbreeze 12:56 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting winter123:
All three Atlantic areas of interest went "poof" overnight. I'm starting to believe the "6 more named storms this season" forecasts. The atlantic is super dry and fronts are no longer dipping way down and stalling (all four storms so far have formed from fronts). I feel like we won't have one named storm in July.
You people kill me it's the last day of June! We are just one month into the season.No one knows what will happen no person or model!!!!!
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952. AussieStorm 13:04 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
TC 21 is gone, torn apart by 10kt of windshear. It was such a tiny system, it may have a chance in the next 24hrs to make a come back with shear dropping down to 5kts.

TXPS23 KNES 301214
TCSWSP

A. 21P (NONAME)

B. 30/1132Z

C. 10.7S

D. 154.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/W1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.5. MET=2.0. FT BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

30/0721Z 10.8S 154.0E TMI


...SCHWARTZ


96W off the coast of the Philippines is back to being a T-wave.

TXPQ22 KNES 300921
TCSWNP

A. NAME (96W)

B. 30/0832Z

C. 9.3N

D. 134.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND IS MORE LIKE AN OPEN
WAVE. POSITION IS MORE LIKE CENTER OF ELONGATED TROF. FINAL BULLETIN
UNLESS REGENERATION OR LOW LEVEL CENTER BETTER DEFINED.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON
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953. LargoFl 13:04 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
just imagine, one storm knocked out power to ..get this 4 million people
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954. LargoFl 13:06 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
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955. LightningCharmer 13:08 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Things can get rather hot in the summer sun.

Toddler severely burned near park fountain Fox News
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956. AussieStorm 13:13 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
97L

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957. AussieStorm 13:17 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
97L
IR with Shear overlay.
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958. weathermanwannabe 13:17 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Good Morning. Most impressive thing out in the tropical Atlantic this morning is how nicely the ITCZ has developed and is rolling along in the "usual" position for this time of the year nearer around the 5N mark. That slow rise towards the 10-15N line will begin in earnest over the next few weeks so time to start looking at the long term models for development of these African waves. 97L was an outlier in terms of it's much higher trajectory out of the box but has not been able to get going.

Don't have a clue whether we will get another storm in July but the Cape Verde season is the one to watch out for this year. Even if the storm numbers level out in late September because of El Nino induced sheer increases, it only take one or two devastating hurricanes to make the year memorable and I am not liking the current ridging pattern of the A-B high which could steer some of these CV systems towards the Caribbean and Yucatan Channel.

Time will tell...........Lot's of chores today and activities for the Kid so Have a Great Weekend.
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959. hydrus 13:18 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting CaribBoy:
Guys you are funny. Seriously! Saying what's left of 2012 will be inactive is not reasonnable. What we experienced last night with our AOI's sure occured in 2010 or 2005... and occurs EVERY SEASON. So please come on lol!
Saying the rest of this season will be inactive would be a mistake. Even the experts agree that this will be a normal year....Many landfalls have occurred in a normal year.
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960. weatherh98 13:21 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
M class solar flare... Things have picked up on the sun in recent days...

Unfortunately
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961. Grothar 13:22 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting weatherh98:

Tell gro they didnt shift north lol


Not yet anyway.
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962. weatherh98 13:23 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting LargoFl:
just imagine, one storm knocked out power to ..get this 4 million people
Good Lord! That's a lot of people with out power
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963. weatherh98 13:23 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


Not yet anyway.


I'm getting the feelin it will be dead soon
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964. hydrus 13:23 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
invest 97L.
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965. stillwaiting 13:24 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Interesting ULL sw of FL,I wonder if that will create enough diffluence aloft to fire some storms offshore tomorrow morning.We have offshore powerboat races tomorrow 11am-1pm,over 10,000 people expected!
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966. Tropicsweatherpr 13:25 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Most impressive thing out in the tropical Atlantic this morning is how nicely the ITCZ has developed and is rolling along in the "usual" position for this time of the year nearer around the 5N mark. That slow rise towards the 10-15N line will begin in earnest over the next few weeks so time to start looking at the long term models for development of these African waves. 97L was an outlier in terms of it's much higher trajectory out of the box but has not been able to get going.

Don't have a clue whether we will get another storm in July but the Cape Verde season is the one to watch out for this year. Even if the storm numbers level out in late September because of El Nino induced sheer increases, it only take one or two devastating hurricanes to make the year memorable and I am not liking the current ridging pattern of the A-B high which could steer some of these CV systems towards the Caribbean and Yucatan Channel.

Time will tell...........Lot's of chores today and activities for the Kid so Have a Great Weekend.


Well said.
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967. AussieStorm 13:25 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Current shear.
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968. STXHurricanes2012 13:25 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Nice cluster of storms off the tx coast between corpus & brownsville
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969. AussieStorm 13:31 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting ernesto2012:
I DON'T THINK ERNESTO WILL AMOUNT TO ANYTHING IF HE FORMS...he has 2 things fighting against him the SAL quite a bit of dust and the sst are quite cool in that part of the caribbean..he also has to deal with strong shear by the time hes in the area...not a really good outlook for ernesto..


Where is Ernesto or even soon to be named Ernesto, I can't see Ernesto forming anywhere. Not one T-wave looks to have a chance at forming into anything at the moment. Ernesto could develop at the CV's or it could develop in the GOM or the BOH. We won't know what Ernesto could become until it develops.
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970. HurricaneHunterJoe 13:32 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
All midwest/east Come to San Diego for a vacation!
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971. aspectre 13:33 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Oddly the current ATCF-data skips 30June6amGMT to jump directly from 30June12amGMT to 30June12pmGMT
Derived from the 30June12pmGMT (NHC) ATCF data for Invest97L
BGI-Barbados : MQS-Mustique : CRU-Carriacou : GND-Grenada : TAB-Tabago

At its 12hour-average travel-speed&direction, 97L would pass over SavanIsland (south of MQS) in ~1day17hours from now
Copy&paste huc, ngd, bgi, mqs, cru, gnd, tab, pmv, pos, 11.5n41.9w- 11.5n43.2w- 11.6n44.5w- 11.6n45.8w- 11.7n47.1w- 11.7n47.5w- 12.0n50.5w, 11.7n47.5w-12.805n61.211w, 13.02n65.8w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information.
The previous mapping for comparison.
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972. STXHurricanes2012 13:33 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Tx/gom blob not giving up just yet lol wheres the poof in convection it had a few hrs ago
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973. HurricaneHunterJoe 13:42 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Ocean Water temps in Southern Cal quite refreshing!

Coastal Water Temperatures
Place Temperature
La Jolla, CA 66.9 °F
San Diego, CA 69.1 °F

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974. aspectre 13:42 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
8ed
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975. Grothar 13:44 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting weatherh98:


I'm getting the feelin it will be dead soon


The doctors feel the same about me, but I'm still hanging around.:) How you doing weather?
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976. GeorgiaStormz 13:45 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
good morning, supposed to be a hot one in N GA 103-107, up to 109-111 in E GA.

those pools are going to be boiling after this weekend
Im so ready for the 4th of july
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977. islander101010 13:46 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting stormpetrol:
Good Morning. I wouldn't completely dismiss 97L as dead, it has plenty to overcome and lacks convection, but it has a good spin to it this morning. Wouldn't write it off just yet!
agree.normal.heat.here.in.ecenfl.
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978. HurricaneHunterJoe 13:50 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Birds of a feather,flock together...........lol
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979. HurricaneHunterJoe 13:51 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Good Morning all from the left coast! It's 652 PDT
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980. CaicosRetiredSailor 13:52 GMT le 30 juin 2012    


From yesterday...
Some records just don't last very long.
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981. JLPR2 13:57 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting AussieStorm:
97L



Am I only one who's eyes moved from sad looking 97L to that swirly blob to its SE?
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982. Grothar 13:57 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
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983. AussieStorm 13:59 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
All midwest/east Come to San Diego for a vacation!


No come to my place in Sydney. LOL

16C = 60F
5C = 41F
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984. HurricaneHunterJoe 14:02 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
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985. AussieStorm 14:02 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting JLPR2:


Am I only one who's eyes moved from sad looking 97L to that swirly blob to its SE?

I noticed it also. soon to be 98L???
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986. HurricaneHunterJoe 14:04 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting AussieStorm:


No come to my place in Sydney. LOL

16C = 60F
5C = 41F


On my way mate!
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987. charlottefl 14:05 GMT le 30 juin 2012    

Quoting weatherh98:
Good Lord! That's a lot of people with out power

If I'm not mistaken, at one point during Frances there were 6 million people without power, but that's a cane so...
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988. bigwes6844 14:07 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting gulfbreeze:
You people kill me it's the last day of June! We are just one month into the season.No one knows what will happen no person or model!!!!!
Correct!! all it ttakes is one storm! I gotta agree with you about that
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989. Tribucanes 14:09 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Four million without power, wow. That had to be one of the biggest wind events in the last ten years, and right in the middle of a brutal heat wave no less. Worried about those who are susceptible to this dangerous heat with no air conditioning. Wonder how long some will be without power.
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990. HurricaneHunterJoe 14:09 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
1008MB out by that wave behind 97L?

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992. JLPR2 14:11 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting AussieStorm:

I noticed it also. soon to be 98L???


It is completely attached to the ITCZ so I'm not sure, but if the spin continues to improve we might get something to watch. Disturbances do form from the ITCZ from time to time, weirder things have happened.
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993. HurricaneHunterJoe 14:13 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting JLPR2:


Am I only one who's eyes moved from sad looking 97L to that swirly blob to its SE?


No, I just don't hope it meets it's demise over south america
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994. Tropicsweatherpr 14:15 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


No, I just don't hope it meets it's demise over south america


Waves dont die when they cross SA as the axis mantains and emerges in the EPAC.
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995. AussieStorm 14:16 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


On my way mate!

The beer is in the fridge, steak is on the BBQ and the music is going. your welcome to come.
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997. LargoFl 14:20 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting Tribucanes:
Four million without power, wow. That had to be one of the biggest wind events in the last ten years, and right in the middle of a brutal heat wave no less. Worried about those who are susceptible to this dangerous heat with no air conditioning. Wonder how long some will be without power.
yes i was thinking of that also this morning, record heatwave and no A/C geez
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998. Tribucanes 14:21 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Ilovehurricanes13 is you know who, just report and ignore. Western Gulf still wants to reform it's micro disturbance where it was last couple days. No yellow circles by this afternoon and no wind event to follow, sigh. Where's the next invest likely to come from?
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999. HurricaneHunterJoe 14:21 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Waves dont die when they cross SA as the axis mantains and emerges in the EPAC.

yes, you are correct of course.Bad choice of words on my part :)
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1000. Grothar 14:21 GMT le 30 juin 2012    


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1001. HurricaneHunterJoe 14:22 GMT le 30 juin 2012    
Quoting AussieStorm:

The beer is in the fridge, steak is on the BBQ and the music is going. your welcome to come.


ohhhhhhhhhhh dude do not tempt me............lol
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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