Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The June 2012 U.S. heat wave: one of the greatest in recorded history
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 19:34 GMT le 03 juillet 2012 +38
Intense heat continues to bake a large portion of the U.S. this Tuesday, with portions of 17 states under heat advisories for dangerously high temperatures. The heat is particularly dangerous for the 1.4 million people still without power and air conditioning due to Friday's incredible derecho event, which is now being blamed for 23 deaths. The ongoing heat wave is one of the most intense and widespread in U.S. history, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. In his Sunday post, The Amazing June Heat Wave of 2012 Part 2: The Midwest and Southeast June 28-30, Mr. Burt documents that eighteen of the 298 locations (6%) that he follows closely because of their long period of record and representation of U.S. climate broke or tied their all-time heat records during the past week, and that "this is especially extraordinary since they have occurred in June rather than July or August when 95% of the previous all-time heat records have been set for this part of the country." The only year with more all-time heat records than 2012 is 1936, when 61 cities of the 298 locations (20%) set all-time heat records. The summer of 1936 was the hottest summer in U.S. history, and July 1936 was the hottest month in U.S. history.

According to wunderground analysis of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) extremes database, during June 2012, 11% of the country's 777 weather stations with a period of record of a century or more broke or tied all-time heat records for the month of June. Only 1936 (13% of June records broken or tied) and 1988 (12.5%) had a greater number of all-time monthly June records. I expect when NCDC releases their analysis of the June 2012 weather next week, they will rank the month as one of the top five hottest Junes in U.S. history.


Figure 1. Across the entire Continental U.S., 72% of the land area was classified as being in dry or drought conditions as of June 26, 2012. Conditions are not expected to improve much over the summer: the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s latest drought outlook shows much of the U.S. in persistent drought conditions, with very few areas improving. The rains brought by Tropical Storm Debby did help out Florida and Georgia, however. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

The forecast: hot and dry
July is traditionally the hottest month of the year, and July 2012 is likely to set more all-time heat records. The latest predictions from the GFS and ECMWF models show that a ridge of high pressure and dry conditions will dominate the weather over about 80 - 90% of the country during the next two weeks, except for the Pacific Northwest and New England. This will bring wicked hot conditions to most of the nation, but no all-time heat records are likely to fall. However, around July 11, a sharp ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the Western U.S., bringing the potential for crazy-hot conditions capable of toppling all-time heat records in many western states.

The intense heat and lack of rain, combined with soils that dried out early in the year due to lack of snowfall, have led to widespread areas of moderate to extreme drought over much of the nation's grain growing regions, from Kansas to Indiana. The USDA is reporting steadily deteriorating crop conditions for corn and soybeans, and it is likely that a multi-billion dollar drought disaster is underway in the Midwest.

The wunderground Extremes page has an interactive map that allows one to look at the records for the 298 U.S. cities that Mr. Burt tracks. Click on the "Wunderground U.S. Records" button to see them.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Have a great 4th of July holiday, everyone, and I'll be back Thursday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Sheep Mountain Ablaze! (turbguy)
The Squirrel Creek Fire spread rapidly last night, and topped the crest of Sheep Mountain as we watched last night. This is a telephoto shot from our west patio. The line of light below the fire is Harmony Wyoming. Sheep mountain is 22 air miles away from us...
Sheep Mountain Ablaze!
Derecho Damage (apphotos)
A woman makes a photograph of Mike Wolfe's pick-up truck as it lies under a fallen tree in front of his house after a severe storm in Falls Church, Va., Saturday, June 30, 2012. Wolfe's daughter Samanth Wolfe created the for sale sign as a joke. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen)
Derecho Damage
Derecho in Catlett (Lokigrins2)
Ground strike reflected off car
Derecho in Catlett
Mink Creek Fire (troxygirl48)
Fire currently burning on mink creek to johnny creek. the fire has claimed 10 house that i know of. My hearts go out to the families.
Mink Creek Fire
Categories: Heat Drought
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1. weatherh98 19:34 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
thanks doc
Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6290
2. TxWxHHPF 19:36 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Thanks Doc... was close to being first!
Member Since: 13 juin 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
4. aspectre 19:37 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Positions have been re-evaluated&altered:
9.7n99.2w - 9.8n99.7w - 10.0n100.1w-10.2n100.6w at 3July12pmGMT
9.9n99.4w-10.1n100.1w-10.3n100.8w-10.5n101.6w- 10.7n102.4w at 3July6pmGMT
Invest96E:
502miles(808kilometres) south of LazloCardenas(LZC)
Copy&paste zih, aca, 9.2n95.5w-9.2n96.4w, 9.2n96.4w-9.3n97.3w, 9.3n97.3w-9.5n98.1w, 9.5n98.1w-9.6n98.8w, 9.6n98.8w-9.9n99.4w, 9.9n99.4w-10.1n100.1w, 10.1n100.1w-10.3n100.8w, 10.3n100.8w-10.5n101.6w, 10.5n101.6w-10.7n102.4w, lzc-10.7n102.4w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison.
Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4855
5. Titoxd 19:38 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Thanks Doc. Thankfully the North American Monsoon is starting and we'll get a shot of much needed moisture in areas that really need it:
Member Since: 28 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 242
6. weatherh98 19:38 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting roflcopter:
2nd?


rules of the road
7. Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space
Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6290
7. ChaseyChasinStorms 19:39 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Good afternoon all. The tropics are SO boring right now. YAWN
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8. GeorgiaStormz 19:39 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Thx Doc

Guys, what is with the 1st, 2nd, 3rd stuff.

There is no point to it.
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7525
9. weatherh98 19:39 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting TxWxHHPF:
Thanks Doc... was close to being first!


close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades
Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6290
10. Patrap 19:40 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Published on Jul 3, 2012 by strangenewstv2012

Chippewa County, WI -- An SUV goes airborne on a highway in Wisconsin... and the whole incident is caught on camera. On Sunday, Theresa Reich and her brother-in-law stopped on an overpass to take a picture of Highway 29, where, because of the heat, the road had buckled.

"From the overpass we could see the big divets, but we'd stopped to take a picture of it because we'd seen a bunch of cars going over slowly, and scraping the underside of their cars. And they were kind of lining up and, you know, checking the damage," says Theresa.

Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968
11. hydrus 19:40 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I say stop all the Levi bashing!!! I've learned quite a bit from the kid. I call him kid cuz I'm approaching 60.
His Tropical Tidbits are very informative and I glean a lot of info from them. I've never seen him bash anyone on here. The NHC was wrong on the forecast...........give him a break!! Keep up the good work kid!! :)

There shouldnt be bashing or ridicule about these things anyway. Predicting the weather is difficult if not impossible at times, depending on patterns and systems. It takes some courage to make an educated guess at what a storm might do, or where it will go. My hat is off to anyone willing to share their knowledge, and have the guts to make a prediction in advance then post it on the blog..Just to think these mets put there name and rep on the line each day they put together a forecast, regardless of how difficult or dangerous the situation may be.
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14682
12. GTcooliebai 19:40 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Hi Doc...take a look at this beast of a ridge in the Atlantic on the latest run of the Euro model.

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13. Some1Has2BtheRookie 19:40 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Deleted
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14. weatherh98 19:40 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
Good afternoon all. The tropics are SO boring right now. YAWN


yes it got so bad that earlier, people were taalking about who was right about debby
Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6290
15. Titoxd 19:40 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting weatherh98:


rules of the road
7. Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space


Not to mention that it is really embarrassing when you post "1st!" and you are actually 5th...

Just Don't Do It!™
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16. GeorgiaStormz 19:41 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
Good afternoon all. The tropics are SO boring right now. YAWN


look in the E-Pac
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17. Some1Has2BtheRookie 19:42 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Deleted
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18. GeorgiaStormz 19:42 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Dr. Masters. I heard you on the radio last night talking about this derecho event. Great job!


really interesting i never hear or see him anywhere...
just my luck, what was he on?
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7525
19. weatherh98 19:43 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


With the A-Bomb, you do not even need to be close! ..... or am I telling my age???


nope nope you need to be close. its the difference in war:)
Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6290
21. weatherh98 19:45 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Jordan, repost the newbie watch i think its about to set in
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22. Some1Has2BtheRookie 19:45 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Deleted
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24. GeorgiaStormz 19:47 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting weatherh98:
Jordan, repost the newbie watch i think its about to set in


maybe, ill wait a tad
and see how it goes.
Its in effect till 1030 edt tonight and can be extended.
Just remember it is a PDS(It isnt a real watch anyone)

Everyone has seen it anyway..
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7525
25. NSB207 19:49 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
The large high over the Atlantic...any way of telling whether it will be in place in August?

Seems it is set to send potential hurricanes along a classic path.

Member Since: 17 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
26. Tazmanian 19:52 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting NSB207:
The large high over the Atlantic...any way of telling whether it will be in place in August?

Seems it is set to send potential hurricanes along a classic path.





you have nothing too worry about EL nino will likey be mod too strong by then



right now we have a weak EL nino
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111615
27. GeorgiaStormz 19:53 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting NSB207:
The large high over the Atlantic...any way of telling whether it will be in place in August?

Seems it is set to send potential hurricanes along a classic path.



which isobar do they tend to follow?
the 1016?
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7525
28. mcluvincane 19:54 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting NSB207:
The large high over the Atlantic...any way of telling whether it will be in place in August?

Seems it is set to send potential hurricanes along a classic path.



That's if we get any coming from the MDR. Hearing a lot of El Nino hoopla will hamper development.
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29. GeorgiaStormz 19:55 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting Tazmanian:




you have nothing too worry about EL nino will likey be mod too strong by then



right now we have a weak EL nino


unless its modoki, but it doesnt seem to look that way.
the MJO could help us get some more early season storms depending on how it turns around.


Come to think of it, it will have to turn around again to resume a counterclockwise path, we might have it for a while
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30. islander101010 19:56 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting Tazmanian:




you have nothing too worry about EL nino will likey be mod too strong by then



right now we have a weak EL nino
twc.will.make.you.eat.these.words
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31. yoboi 19:57 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
Good afternoon all. The tropics are SO boring right now. YAWN


define not boring....
Member Since: 25 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2500
32. GeorgiaStormz 19:57 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting islander101010:
twc.will.make.you.eat.these.words


twc.will.do.nothing
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7525
33. yoboi 19:58 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting BeanTech:


Ask yourself: Who cares?


another cage match?
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34. weathermanwannabe 19:59 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
and it is likely that a multi-billion dollar drought disaster is underway in the Midwest.

That is really bad news and proof that Man is not in control.............The impacts of that will reverberate throughout the global food supply chain.

Thank You Dr. and Have a Good 4th with Your Family.

Member Since: 8 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
35. yoboi 20:00 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting Patrap:
Published on Jul 3, 2012 by strangenewstv2012

Chippewa County, WI -- An SUV goes airborne on a highway in Wisconsin... and the whole incident is caught on camera. On Sunday, Theresa Reich and her brother-in-law stopped on an overpass to take a picture of Highway 29, where, because of the heat, the road had buckled.

"From the overpass we could see the big divets, but we'd stopped to take a picture of it because we'd seen a bunch of cars going over slowly, and scraping the underside of their cars. And they were kind of lining up and, you know, checking the damage," says Theresa.




looks like a normal louisiana road to me....
Member Since: 25 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2500
36. NSB207 20:00 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


which isobar do they tend to follow?
the 1016?


Was just looking at the southern edge in general, wasn't thinking 1016

was thinking about the 1072 air mass
Member Since: 17 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
37. Grothar 20:00 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Now that is what I call a "hot" blog, Doc. Those records crumbling are incredible. I've always wondered if someone on your staff could do a blog on the Ogallala Aquifer and what a severe drought could do to our crops. I would do it but I am too busy. I don't think many people realize how critical this situation could be. Nice blog.


Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19661
38. Patrap 20:03 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
..only when the last river has been polluted, and the last tree been cut down, and the last fish been caught, will we realise we cannot eat money.


- cree native saying
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39. SteveDa1 20:05 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
It seems like the northwest U.S. and western Canada will finally get to experience widespread warmth.....

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40. Patrap 20:10 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    


GOM Rainbow image

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41. Patrap 20:12 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Hoping for a cooling Boomer in today's Pop Up Lottery



Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968
42. hydrus 20:14 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting Patrap:
..only when the last river has been polluted, and the last tree been cut down, and the last fish been caught, will we realise we cannot eat money.


- cree native saying
Logic promotes decency, logic radiates from the Universe around us, hopefully it all works out for the Earth and the human race...:) Yours truly
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14682
43. Tribucanes 20:16 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Record heat to be continuing with long term forecast showing little rain for Midwest. If their 14 days forecast is right then many areas here in the Midwest, especially South Central Wisconsin, will be beyond being able to come back from this drought and record heat wave. We haven't hit 100 in 17 years here in Central Wisconsin. We're expected to break it the next two days, and Friday is going to be 98. Billion dollar loses is right on. This may be one of the largest modern crop loss in the history of the US. This is headed quickly towards National Disaster territory. 96 today, living the dream.
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44. Dakster 20:17 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    

Wow. How about that Heat... Not that I liked the 40 days and nights of rain either.
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45. allancalderini 20:17 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hi Doc...take a look at this beast of a ridge in the Atlantic on the latest run of the Euro model.

what does that mean more storms to the gulf of Mexico or more storm like Dean and Felix type?
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46. SteveDa1 20:20 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
2 historic heat waves in a matter of months (remember March 2012?)... sign of things to come? :/

Note: no need to start debating, I'm just expressing my concern in words.
Member Since: 17 octobre 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 1057
47. GeorgiaStormz 20:24 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
i find it funny that the nws site pages did not change.
so now you have the new weather.gov
when you click on an area its the old one, and if you click on a forecast point its the new one.

my laptop is slow enough right now to have troubles loading the new weather.gov
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48. etxwx 20:26 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Social bats pay a price: Fungal disease, white-nose syndrome ... extinction?
Excerpt: The effect on bat populations of a deadly fungal disease known as white-nose syndrome may depend on how gregarious the bats are during hibernation, scientists have discovered.

Species that hibernate in dense clusters even as their populations get smaller will continue to transmit the disease at a high rate, dooming them to continued decline, according to results of a new study led by biologists at the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC).

One gregarious species has surprised biologists, however, by changing its social behavior.
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49. Grothar 20:28 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19661
50. seracfilms 20:29 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Any ideas? I live in Boulder, CO. Our NEXRAD (Denver) site always shows an intense echo (false) half way between Bouler, CO and Golden, CO along highway 93, it is there 24 hours a day 365 days a year. As a result we never get to see the actual complete radar picture for the area. Is there any thought as to why they don't filter the result from that spot, the NEXRAD people must be aware of the anomaly. Are there a lot of places with this kind of false echo - or is it a way to calibrate the maps? Thank you for any ideas!
Member Since: 12 juin 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 0
51. TropicalAnalystwx13 20:33 GMT le 03 juillet 2012    
Lol, no wonder the HWRF makes 96E a Category 4 hurricane. It shows the system as a Category 2 hurricane in 24 hours from now.

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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