The Squirrel Creek Fire spread rapidly last night, and topped the crest of Sheep Mountain as we watched last night. This is a telephoto shot from our west patio. The line of light below the fire is Harmony Wyoming. Sheep mountain is 22 air miles away from us...
A woman makes a photograph of Mike Wolfe's pick-up truck as it lies under a fallen tree in front of his house after a severe storm in Falls Church, Va., Saturday, June 30, 2012. Wolfe's daughter Samanth Wolfe created the for sale sign as a joke. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen)
Ground strike reflected off car
Fire currently burning on mink creek to johnny creek. the fire has claimed 10 house that i know of. My hearts go out to the families.
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spacetime continuum
everything made of nothing just attracted to higgs bosons.
but then what is the matter we feel, is that just a rejection to higgs bosons from the attraction our particles have to them?
CANT STAND PHYSICS
Here is hoping that everyone, here in the U.S., has had a wonderful 4th of July.
We have been blessed to live in a great country. It is my sincerest hope and prayer that this country can re-unite and face the future with an honest appreciation for the many perils we face. While many of the issues we face seem more imminent, it is climate change that poses the greatest long-term risk, if wisdom and leadership do not prevail.
GOD BLESS AMERICA!!
Time Travel: Einstein's big idea (Theory of Relativity)
I'll be out for now.
you can say that again.......lol
EP, 04, 2012070500, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1083W, 30, 1005, TD
OOOOOHHHHH! Smacks forehead. Now I get it. Lol. Gotcha Taz. :)
looks like td 4e making comeback from its sickly look this am
Looks pretty ragged.
Feel the pain. Holidays were just another duty day for almost 29 years. Now I get holidays off but I think of those who must work. My hat off to you all.
Yeah... It's very large and broad, and convection isn't very well organized... I actually was expecting an upgrade though... I feel like there's probably some 40mph winds in there...
not compared to this am
Well i dont really like everything about the US of A, but damn do i like uncle sams food!!!!!!!!! Send me some of that Americana!
Happy 4th everybody!
this
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.9mb/ 43.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.0
and this
05/0000 UTC 13.3N 108.1W T2.5/2.5 04E -- East Pacific
both show its at lest a 40 or 45 mph TS
Hey Kori, Happy 4th of July. Hope all is well with you.
its pulling a 95E?
I don't think so... It will end up as a high end TS most likely.
Melting glaciers and ice sheets have contributed more to rising sea levels in the past decade than expansion from warming water, according to modelling in the latest report by the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems (ACE) Cooperative Research Centre.
Before 2000 thermal expansion was the biggest factor in rising sea levels.
The shift was “a fairly sure sign that you’re getting out of the normal balance”, said report author Dr John Hunter, an oceanographer and expert in rising sea levels at the ACE.
Report Card: Sea Level Rise 2012 provides a summary of the past decade of peer-reviewed scientific research into sea-level rise, and is the most recent update since a report in 2008.
During the 20th century sea levels rose at a rate unmatched for 6,000 years, the report says. Satellite measurements have confirmed the global average rise of 1.9mm a year, as measured in tide gauges. “This present sea-level rise is due to a combination of thermal expansion of a warming ocean and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets.”
“We’ve been better able to match up two things: observed sea level rises – which we get by looking at tide gauges until about 20 years ago, then after that tide gauges and also records from satellites – and estimates of sea level rises, which we get by looking at ocean temperatures and observing ice on land, the two biggest components, among other things,” Dr Hunter said.
“If we can get those estimates to agree with the observations from tide gauges and satellites, then we have a good understanding of sea level rise. At the time of the last assessment, that wasn’t all that well done, and we didn’t know very much about ice. We’ve got a better understanding now.”
But estimating the future rate of ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets remained the largest uncertainty in projecting sea-level rise over the next century, he said.
From 1993 to 2009, reconstructed tide-gauge data shows a rise of 2.8mm per year and satellite data shows a rise of 3.2mm per year.
Since 1972, thermal expansion contributed about 45% to total sea level rise, glaciers and ice caps another 40%, with most of the remainder from the ice sheets, the report says. Since 1993 the contribution of the ice sheets to sea-level rise has increased to about 30%.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated that projected sea level rise over the next century could vary from about 10-20cm to about 80cm.
Dr Hunter said it was “only just about now that we’re starting to observe melting from ice is starting to overtake thermal expansion. If you disturb the earth, the first thing that happens is that you just get thermal expansion from the heating of the water, and there’s quite a lag before melting from the ice starts to kick in, and eventually the ice becomes a greater contributor. This is always a fairly sure sign that you’re getting out of the normal balance.”
The two biggest impacts of the rising sea level will be flooding from inundation along hard shoreline, and coastal recession along soft shoreline, the report says. A relatively modest increase in mean sea level of 50cm will increase the frequency of flooding by a factor of roughly 300.
Slam I am Hydrus.
Happy 4th to you and all my other WU heroes.
Thanks for all the insight!
Glad to hear that today is better than yesterday. A day is just another drop of water in the bucket. :)
I think I've seen it 400 times, but it never dissapoints.
I'll watch it again.
Thanks - agreed - classic
- I'm at my date at the Fairfax Fireworks
- Its going good about to get better ;)
- Technical Difficulties in the launch pit
- "Folks, we have to cancel, technical difficulties are too much and there is a storm coming"
- Panic in the crowd
- Have to walk my date to her car and then run to mine, lost my hat in the crowd
- Rolled my ankle walking down the hill
- Got to car... Almost got hit by amateur fireworks
- Got home... Power flicker and now wind gusts
- Night = Ruined
- And all because of storms
Don't you ever watch anything of substance, like Cheers?
There's always Friday...
never ;>
Ahhh that really sucks dude. Better luck next time.
Family Guy.
But, it's better than being an ingredient in somebody's soup.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT WED JUL 04 2012
THERE STILL HAVE NOT BEEN ANY FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES TO THE STRUCTURE
OF THE DEPRESSION. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS LARGE AND WELL
DEFINED...BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ONLY LOOSELY ORGANIZED. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS INCREASING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WHILE CONFLUENCE OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE MAY BE LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS BEING KEPT AT 30 KT SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN NO DEFINITIVE EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL STORM.
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO...AND THE
CURRENT MOTION IS 290/10 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FAIRLY CONSTANT SPEED THROUGH DAY 5.
LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST...AND
THE NEW ONE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.
ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY PROHIBITIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A ZONE OF
UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE COULD CONTINUE NEAR THE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE
MORE DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST THEREFORE ONLY SHOWS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 3. THIS SCENARIO IS
HIGHER THAN THAT SHOWN BY THE STANDARD INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS
ONLY ECLIPSED BY THE VERSION OF THE HWRF THAT USES THE ECMWF AS ITS
BACKGROUND. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND
INTO A DRIER...MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AFTER DAY 3...AND WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THAT PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 13.6N 108.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 14.0N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 14.5N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 14.9N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 15.1N 116.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 15.2N 121.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 15.5N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 16.0N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Not much of a date if she brought her own car. :)
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