Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Lol, no wonder the HWRF makes 96E a Category 4 hurricane. It shows the system as a Category 2 hurricane in 24 hours from now.

nice fresh blog
thanks doc
happy 4th to you and family

If 96E become Daniel and it go to Hawaii it will clearly state that this name hates Hawaii. past Daniel`s have done the same.

The Secret of Grothar Revealed....
Scientists at Arizona State University have discovered that older honey bees effectively reverse brain aging when they take on nest responsibilities typically handled by much younger bees.

The Naval Maritime Forecast Center has not put out a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for Invest 96E. Strange.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lol, no wonder the HWRF makes 96E a Category 4 hurricane. It shows the system as a Category 2 hurricane in 24 hours from now.

\

what ... ? !!!!!!

Quoting Grothar:

Thanks Dr Masters..we had some rain from ex 97L, but it was mostly light.

Quoting etxwx:
The Secret of Grothar Revealed....
Scientists at Arizona State University have discovered that older honey bees effectively reverse brain aging when they take on nest responsibilities typically handled by much younger bees.

We also eat their little brains, too! :)

Man the last two days it's been thundering like crazy, but it will not rain here. It's pouring like two miles away! It's been thundering for like an hour now...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Naval Maritime Forecast Center has not put out a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for Invest 96E. Strange.

It has been issued.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 99.7W TO 12.5N 105.9W WITHIN THE
NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 031630Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 100.6W.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
100.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 100.6W, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTH
OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS STEADILY DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOWER, MORE FAVORABLE VWS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK VWS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

ok i think the NHC really needs too make 96E a TD now

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It has been issued.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 99.7W TO 12.5N 105.9W WITHIN THE
NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 031630Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 100.6W.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
100.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 100.6W, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTH
OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS STEADILY DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOWER, MORE FAVORABLE VWS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK VWS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

Maybe future Daniel could become a major hurricane.

Quoting Tazmanian:
ok i think the NHC really needs too make 96E a TD now

I agree... I can't really figure out what it's missing...

Quoting charlottefl:
Man the last two days it's been thundering like crazy, but it will not rain here. It's pouring like two miles away! It's been thundering for like an hour now...

Same here in Ocala. Last night constant thunder and lightning not one drop. Right now, I 'm in a severe thunderstorm warning area about a mile and a half from the center of the cell...Lots of booming and flashing and just a few big drops every once in a while. Weird.

WTPN21 PHNC 031700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 99.7W TO 12.5N 105.9W WITHIN THE
NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 031630Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 100.6W.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
100.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 100.6W, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTH
OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS STEADILY DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOWER, MORE FAVORABLE VWS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK VWS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041700Z. //
NNNN

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I agree... I can't really figure out what it's missing...

Yeah, it's looking pretty good at the moment.

More rain on the way for Florida...

Quoting seracfilms:
Any ideas? I live in Boulder, CO. Our NEXRAD (Denver) site always shows an intense echo (false) half way between Bouler, CO and Golden, CO along highway 93, it is there 24 hours a day 365 days a year. As a result we never get to see the actual complete radar picture for the area. Is there any thought as to why they don't filter the result from that spot, the NEXRAD people must be aware of the anomaly. Are there a lot of places with this kind of false echo - or is it a way to calibrate the maps? Thank you for any ideas!

is it a wind farm?

ALERT ATCF MIL 96E JUL 120703120000
2012070312
10.2 260.3
12.5 254.1
155
10.2 259.4
031700
1207031700
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 031700
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031700Z JUL 12//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 031700)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 99.7W TO 12.5N 105.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 031630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.2N 100.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 041700Z.//
NNNN

Invest 96E:

Monster Thunderstorm heading into detroit right now, massive amount of Lightning.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
More rain on the way for Florida...

This is typical during an el nino right?

Quoting weatherh98:


rules of the road
7. Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space

So are you the blog cop?

And no, I've read this blog long enough to know not to do that when things are active.

Lighten up Francis.

37 Grothar: I've always wondered if someone on your staff could do a blog on the Ogallala Aquifer and what a severe drought could do to our crops.

There was a recent article in NatureGeoScience (or somesuch, possibly even in Science) that compared the state of the SanJoaquinAquifer (southernCentralValley of California) to that of the OgallalaAquifer.

Surprisingly, the HighPlainsAquifer is doing quite well, with significantly higher water levels than its historical lows. Apparently the farmers, the federal&state farm bureaus, and the various water management districts finally got the idea that it was less expensive to put in irrigation equipment that made more efficient usage of water than to drill/deepen new wells every few years and to spend ever more money for electricity/fuel to pump that water to the surface.
Even the northernTexas portion was higher than its historical lows, even after last year's drought.
HOWEVER
The SanJoaquinAquifer that stores the water used to irrigate the "Nuts & Fruits Basket of America" is way WAY below historical levels. Choices are coming down to installing individual drip irrigation lines to each tree, or pulling out the trees and planting new crops.
Either way, nut and fruit prices are expected to skyrocket in the next few years.

Quoting nigel20:

This is typical during an el nino right?

Yep... El Nino usually increases precip across the entire Southeast.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
\

what ... ? !!!!!!

Wouldn't that type of intensification be a record?

Under a severe thunderstorm warning in metro Detroit.

Lots of pop-up storms here in North Florida at the moment but other parts of the US could use the rain; we got our fill with Debby recently.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yep... El Nino usually increases precip across the entire Southeast.

The opposite usually occur in the Caribbean though Jamaica was really wet during the 2006/2007 el nino.

Invest 96E's circulation is still very elongated, but it is getting better defined by the hour. We should see Tropical Depression Four-E at 11PM EDT/8PM PDT unless convection diminishes.

Quoting roflcopter:


Wouldn't that type of intensification be a record?

not for the epac
they can and will blow up fast
but they also fall apart
just as fast as well

Quoting seracfilms:
Any ideas? I live in Boulder, CO. Our NEXRAD (Denver) site always shows an intense echo (false) half way between Bouler, CO and Golden, CO along highway 93, it is there 24 hours a day 365 days a year. As a result we never get to see the actual complete radar picture for the area. Is there any thought as to why they don't filter the result from that spot, the NEXRAD people must be aware of the anomaly. Are there a lot of places with this kind of false echo - or is it a way to calibrate the maps? Thank you for any ideas!

Quoting Progster:


is it a wind farm?

I live near Nederland and I've noticed the same hot spot as well. I don't know for sure, but I notice it is roughly near the NREL (National Renewable Energy Lab) area. I wonder if it's related to the wind turbines at NREL?

I notice the hot spot is only visible on the lowest radar tilt angle (0.50 degrees). So if it's not NREL it is probably related to some other structure on the ground.

Oh, here's some info on how wind turbines do, indeed, show up on radar.



NOTE - the NREL experimental wind farm lies just a few "pixels" east of the hot spot, which is roughly in the center of this radar image.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I'm constantly amazed at some graphics that have systems as a "medium" or "fair" chance of developing when the system is basically already a TD

Quoting Patrap:
Hoping for a cooling Boomer in today's Pop Up Lottery

You and me both!! They have been coming close enough to hear the thunder the last couple of days, but no rain...

Quoting MrMixon:


I live near Nederland and I've noticed the same hot spot as well. I don't know for sure, but I notice it is roughly near the NREL (National Renewable Energy Lab) area. I wonder if it's related to the wind turbines at NREL?

I notice the hot spot is only visible on the lowest radar tilt angle (0.50 degrees). So if it's not NREL it is probably related to some other structure on the ground.

Oh, here's some info on how wind turbines do, indeed, show up on radar.



NOTE - the NREL wind farm lies just a few "pixels" east of the hot spot.

If it is a wind farm causing the false returns then it is very difficult to mask as the signal varies with the speed and direction of the blades. Terrain masking is possible because terrain (except in California) is stationary.

And cue the barely moving thunderstorm...

Quoting aspectre:
37 Grothar: I've always wondered if someone on your staff could do a blog on the Ogallala Aquifer and what a severe drought could do to our crops.

There was a recent article in NatureGeoScience (or somesuch, possibly even in Science) that compared the state of the SanJoaquinAquifer (southernCentralValley of California) to that of the OgallalaAquifer.

Surprisingly, the HighPlainsAquifer is doing quite well, with significantly higher water levels than its historical lows. Apparently the farmers, the federal&state farm bureaus, and the various water management districts finally got the idea that it was less expensive to put in irrigation equipment that made more efficient usage of water than to drill/deepen new wells every few years and to spend ever more money for electricity/fuel to pump up that water.
Even the northernTexas portion was higher than its historical lows, even after last year's drought.
HOWEVER
The SanJoaquinAquifer that stores the water used to irrigate the "Nuts & Fruits Basket of America" is way WAY below historical levels. Choices are coming down to installing individual drip irrigation lines to each tree, or pulling out the trees and planting new crops.
Either way, nut and fruit prices are expected to skyrocket in the next few years.

Just an excerpt: FULL LINK BELOW


July, 2 2012 Average Groundwater Level Decline of -2.56 Feet Recorded In 2011 Is Third Largest In High Plains Water District's 61- Year History
Winter water level measurements indicate an average decline of -2.56 feet in groundwater levels of the Ogallala Aquifer within the 16-county High Plains Underground Water Conservation District No. 1 (HPWD) service area in 2011.

A review of available records in the HPWD archives has documented only two other years since creation of the district (61 years ago) where recorded average water level declines were greater than those for 2011.

In 1964, the average water level decline was -3.99 feet and in 1966, the average water level decline was -2.92 feet. Therefore, the average water level decline of -2.56 feet recorded in 2011 was the third highest based on available data.

In addition, this is the largest decline recorded in the water district’s observation well network in 25 years (1987-2012). The next largest decline for that 25-year period was -2.15 feet recorded in 1995 and 1999.

“The impact of exceptional drought and record- setting high temperatures were clearly documented by the HPWD 2011-2012 winter water level measurement program,” said William F. Mullican, P.G., HPWD advisor for groundwater issues.

“Extreme heat, low humidity, and hot, dry wind caused increased supplemental irrigation in both the agricultural and urban sectors,” Mullican said.

The average water level decline of -2.56 feet recorded in the district’s network of 1,280 privately- owned water wells in 2011 is significantly greater than the -0.05 of a foot recorded in 2010, which was an above-average rainfall year.


Link

Quoting MTWX:


You and me both!! They have been coming close enough to hear the thunder the last couple of days, but no rain...

Patrap and MTWX,
Same here. I hear the thunder every afternoon and it's raining somewhere nearby, but never 'here'. My garden would love some rain.

Quoting seracfilms:
Any ideas? I live in Boulder, CO. Our NEXRAD (Denver) site always shows an intense echo (false) half way between Bouler, CO and Golden, CO along highway 93, it is there 24 hours a day 365 days a year. As a result we never get to see the actual complete radar picture for the area. Is there any thought as to why they don't filter the result from that spot, the NEXRAD people must be aware of the anomaly. Are there a lot of places with this kind of false echo - or is it a way to calibrate the maps? Thank you for any ideas!

The NEXRAD does not have the ability to have areas selectively filtered.

The main reason behind this is because when actual weather is within the filter area, it will not show up.

If (or when) Invest 96e reaches hurricane strength, for how long do you see it sustaining that? Is the potential there for Cat4/5 early in the season?

Quoting aspectre:
37 Grothar: I've always wondered if someone on your staff could do a blog on the Ogallala Aquifer and what a severe drought could do to our crops.

There was a recent article in NatureGeoScience (or somesuch, possibly even in Science) that compared the state of the SanJoaquinAquifer (southernCentralValley of California) to that of the OgallalaAquifer.

Surprisingly, the HighPlainsAquifer is doing quite well, with significantly higher water levels than its historical lows. Apparently the farmers, the federal&state farm bureaus, and the various water management districts finally got the idea that it was less expensive to put in irrigation equipment that made more efficient usage of water than to drill/deepen new wells every few years and to spend ever more money for electricity/fuel to pump up that water.
Even the northern Texas portion was higher than the historical lows, even after last year's drought.
HOWEVER
The SanJoaquinAquifer that irrigates the "Nuts&FruitsBasket" of America is way WAY below historical levels. Choices are coming down to installing drip irrigation to each individual tree, or pulling out the trees and planting new crops. Either way, nut and fruit prices are expected to skyrocket in the next few years.

The California water situation is quite worrisome. The delta smelt case I'm sure is a big issue too. (San Antonio's water supply was also curtailed due to a little fish)


Some Texas farmers are gradually abandoning farming over the Ogallala. The population of that part of the state is decreasing.

The Ogallala doesn't "recharge" the way other aquifers recharge.

Not sure if anyone has posted this, but I think it's pretty cool:

The US Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) researchers said recently that a Navy very high-resolution Doppler radar can actually spot individual raindrops in a cloudburst, possibly paving the way for new weather monitoring applications that could better track or monitor weather and severe storms.

Full story, with pictures