The Squirrel Creek Fire spread rapidly last night, and topped the crest of Sheep Mountain as we watched last night. This is a telephoto shot from our west patio. The line of light below the fire is Harmony Wyoming. Sheep mountain is 22 air miles away from us...
A woman makes a photograph of Mike Wolfe's pick-up truck as it lies under a fallen tree in front of his house after a severe storm in Falls Church, Va., Saturday, June 30, 2012. Wolfe's daughter Samanth Wolfe created the for sale sign as a joke. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen)
Ground strike reflected off car
Fire currently burning on mink creek to johnny creek. the fire has claimed 10 house that i know of. My hearts go out to the families.
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they are in the middle of the convection. another blob is moving north into PR
this.year.2.landfalls.4.storms.
LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE SHOW MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
PATCHY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT LARGE SCALE...CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS FORM RING OF FIRE AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH AND
CAPPED REGION...EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS TO NEBRASKA TO GREAT
LAKES REGION THEN DOWN TOWARD MID ATLANTIC.
LOOKING AT TODAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
YESTERDAY WITH A FEW SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK WINDS THROUGH
STORM DEPTH SO SHOULD BE PULSE TYPE STORMS AND VERY SLOW MOVING.
COULD SEE LOCALIZED HIGH RAIN AMOUNTS ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY. YESTERDAY THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ON THE EAST
SIDE OF HOUSTON AS SEEN IN RADAR ESTIMATES AND RAIN GAUGES FROM
HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL.
SATURDAY LOOKING AT BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST ON SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH. MOS GUIDANCE FOR NAM AND GFS REFLECT
THIS WITH HIGHER POPS FOR SATURDAY...AND THINKING WILL HAVE MORE
LIKE 30 TO 40 PCT COVERAGE THAT DAY. THOSE HIGHER POPS TO
CONTINUE THEN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE. GFS AND EC
ACTUALLY SHOW COLD FRONT GETTING CLOSE TO CWA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AND THIS COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE FORMATION OF A FEW STORMS
ALTHOUGH THINK IT SHOULD WASH OUT BEFORE HAVING ANY MEANINGFUL
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
funny how the equitorial water looks below avg by the blue colors but is actually very hot
More recent paper; 2010 by Klotzbach; interesting read as to the hybrid-modoki El Nino pattern:
The number of United States landfalls and normalized damage are reduced in El Niño years as well (e.g., Pielke and Landsea 1999, Elsner and Jagger 2006, Klotzbach 2010a). The reduction in activity due to ENSO is even more significant in the Caribbean than for the remainder of the tropical Atlantic (Gray 1984a, Klotzbach 2010b). ENSO has also been shown to have its most significant impact on TCs that form in the deep tropics (Kossin et al. 2010).
Recently, different types of ENSO have been analyzed. Kim et al. (2009) argue that East Pacific warm events reduce storm activity as discussed in many previous studies, while Central Pacific (or ENSO-Modoki) warm events may enhance storm activity along the Gulf of Mexico and in Central America due to a reduction of vertical wind shear. Lee et al. (2010) claim, however, that the enhanced storm activity seen in ENSO-Modoki events was largely due to the anomalously active years of 1969 and 2004, which both had larger-than-normal Atlantic Warm Pools (AWP), defined as the area of water warmer than 28.5°C comprising the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and western tropical North Atlantic. They argue that larger-than-normal AWPs are associated with reduced vertical shear, and therefore, the attribution of heightened activity due to ENSO-Modoki may be premature.
AMZ732-051330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.MA.W.0027.120705T1256Z-120705T1330Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
856 AM AST THU JUL 5 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N...
* UNTIL 930 AM AST
* AT 851 AM AST...OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
17N...OR ABOUT 53 NM SOUTH OF PUNTA VIENTO...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20
KNOTS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS.
&&
LAT...LON 1742 6634 1765 6585 1700 6540 1700 6574
TIME...MOT...LOC 1255Z 123DEG 21KT 1716 6570
$$
GV
even an outflow bndry
up near colombus...
EP, 04, 2012070512, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1100W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 210, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DANIEL, M,
yup. saw that. as i said earlierr though
3.4 / 995.5mb/ 53.0kt
ADT numbers are high
The Gulf has exploded temperature wise since Debby has left the area.
June 25th.
July 3rd
and its gotten even hotter since the third
there are some 31s and 32s celcius off the LA coast.
i can asure you they are thst hot too, went swimming out there yesterday
I hit a leatherneck on time in gitmo. Got the ___ whipping of my life as my CO laughed.
Lessen learned
Fears of new Dust Bowl as heat, drought shrivel corn in Midwest
Link
sad because the corn is fantastic this year.
What Was
000
FXUS62 KMFL 030740
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES...MOVING
OVER THE TOP OF THE DEEP RIDGE AND MOVING SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NEW ENGLAND REGION...DEEPENS AN UPPER TROUGH SE ALONG THE
E U.S. COAST...THE ADJACENT N ATLC AND OVER THE FLA PENINSULA THURS
-DAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOVES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
W AND LEAVES THE FLA PENINSULA IN A COL AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
W AND THE ATLC RIDGE WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
What is now
000
FXUS62 KMFL 051118
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
ISSUED 329 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012
..A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EXTENDS SW
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHOVING THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE CENTRAL U.S. WESTWARD WITH THE ATLC RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT OVER
OVER THE FLA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMO
-SPHERE... A RIDGE FROM THE ATLC WILL EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE FLA
PENINSULA. THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE
/UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS KEEP S FLA IN A FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.
Euro has it slipping in the west coast of florida. it looks like it will go somewhere round florida. WATCH OUT
you can see it on the TPW
Link
Its coming faster than most of us thought
It started great, and then after a minute there was a defective firework that exploded very low and set of 20-30 more fireworks that were down by their launching pads.
Couldnt really see the explosions, but it sounded bad.
Luckily only 2 people suffered minor injuries, but it pretty much ended the show..
the show did continue after a while, but a lot of people left
we already had a yellow. they took it off
Anyone else sing "Lothar of the Hill People" in their head every time Grothar posts?
Anyone??
Phew.....
In da states we have this concept of "Humor", u should try it once.
It dont hurt, much.
: )
morning. i got to sleep in. have practice at 5 though
not to mention the shear inhibiting any development in the next 48-72
lucky.
So are we talking about htat wwave by PR now?
yea, the one that had a yellow on it yesterday
looks like the monsoon trough is lifting north in the sahel.
this could decrease the SAL
does it have a CDO?
luckily not many were back there
Link
try the 43 sec video
I have a video of it on an iphone, i will try to see what i can do with it
Sure seems to hurt you a lot. Seeing as how you are always railing against it. At least from anyone but you, that is.
The TUTT is also shearing the crap out of this thing
look, even the wave has the least vorticity
In another month or so, that Bermuda ridge should be weaker and further east as El Nino comes into the equation.
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
Daniel Floater RGB
Viewing: 1101 - 1151
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