The odds of an El Niño event developing in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season have grown to 61%, said NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in their latest El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion, released on July 5. Ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have increased to 0.6°C above average this week, which is just above the 0.5°C above-average threshold used to define a weak El Niño event. These temperatures must remain 0.5° or more above average for three consecutive months to qualify as an official El Niño. CPC advised that current conditions show a weakening of the east-to-west trade winds over the east-central equatorial Pacific, along with a reduction in heavy thunderstorm activity over Papua New Guinea, which "reflect a likely progression towards El Niño." However, the upper atmospheric winds and circulation patterns don't resemble what we expect of an El Niño yet. For example, in June over the North Pacific Ocean, there was an overall ridge of high pressure (more characteristic of La Niña) rather than a trough of low pressure (more typical during an El Niño). Thus, any development of El Niño during July is likely to be slow. El Niño events tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the upper-level winds that create high wind shear capable of tearing storms apart.
Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 5, 2012. In the equatorial Pacific, waters had warmed to 0.6°C above average, denoting the possible onset of an El Niño event. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Madison all hit 102° on July 4
The summer of 2012 continued its onslaught of record extreme heat on Wednesday, with the Midwest the focus of the most intense heat. Chicago hit 102°, just 3° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 105°, set on July 24, 1934. Chicago hits 102° or more an average of once every 7.4 years, and last hit that mark on July 24, 2005. Detroit's high of 102° yesterday was its hottest day since 1988. Detroit's all-time hottest temperature is also 105°, set on July 24, 1934. Milwaukee, WI also hit 102° yesterday, which tied for the 4th hottest temperature in city history. Madison's 102° was their hottest day since 1988, and tied for the 6th warmest temperature ever measured in the city. Madison's all-time high is 107°, set July 14, 1936, and the forecast for today calls for a high of 104°. Other notable extremes from the 4th of July:
St. Louis hit 105°, the seventh consecutive day the city has hit triple digits. This streak is now the 4th longest such streak in city history; the only longer streaks occurred during the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 (streaks of 13 and 9 days) and the Dust Bowl summer of 1934 (an 8-day streak.) The current forecast for St. Louis calls for highs of 102 - 106° Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, which will likely bring the city's streak of 100°+ days to ten by week's end. St. Louis' all-time hottest temperature is 115°, set in 1954.
The high temperature in Pueblo Colorado reached 101 degrees on July 4th, bringing the number of consecutive days with high temperatures of 100 degrees or higher to a record thirteen. The previous record was 9 consecutive days, set in 1990. Record keeping began in 1888.
The low temperature in La Crosse, WI dropped to just 81° Wednesday. This tied July 21 1901 and July 13 1995 for the warmest low ever recorded. Temperature records date back to 1872.
Minneapolis, MN hit 101°, which is 7° below their all-time record high of 108° set 7/14/1936.
Highs of 100°+ are predicted to occur again on Thursday and Friday in Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Madison. A cold front will bring welcome relief on Saturday to the region, and the region of highest extreme heat will shift southeastwards to the Tennessee Valley. The models have backed off on their prediction of a strong ridge of high pressure bringing extreme heat to the Western U.S. next week, and more typical hot weather can be expected over most of the U.S. next week. Nevertheless, the extreme Midwest heat is causing havoc to the nation's corn crop, and multi-billion dollar drought disaster is taking shape. Today's New York Times details the drought concerns. I did a live interview Tuesday for Democracy Now discussing the recent extreme weather and how we can expect to see more weather like this in the future due to climate change.
Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
07/04/2012 Picture taken from Milliken Co. The smoke from the fire burning in Wyoming has filled the sky, & the sun still shows little relief of cooler temperatures in Co.
Beautiful red, white and blue sunset tonight. Happy 4th of July everyone!!!
From the wind and static electricity. This was no till corn
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Daniel is leaving tonight on a plane
I can see the red tail lights heading for Spain
NEW TROPICAL DISCUSSION OUT
System May Try And Develop
Link
Good afternoon MA...how have you been?
yup just your avg 45 mph storm
how old is it?
Afternoon Nigel... I've been doing well... Nothing too exciting :)
they also have half the gulf as being average and the north east gulf at -3
Click for loop
Pretty old... there's probably been some changes since then... I'd expect a 65mph TS at 5.
Microwave imagery showed earlier that Daniel wasn't well organized when it comes to building an eye-wall. However, recent imagery shows that the more intense convection is wrapping around the center and becoming more symmetrical. Dry air is a problem in the NW quadrant and there appears to be some mid-level dry air around the northern semi-circle due to the outflow boundaries pushing away from the storm. Regardless, Daniel appears to be on the way to hurricane status.
Your probably right. That would explain the outflow boundary.
that is the most suggestive weather system ive ever seen
The Gulf is actually fairly close to average. On July 1 when that anomaly map was made, the NE Gulf was still below average due to Debby. Each map has a different legend, but overall they show close to the same thing. The Australian BOM updates at different times than the CPC, but they normally have the same numbers. The Australian BOM has a higher number for Nino 3.4 because they updated the anomaly number a week later than CPC.
The GOM has sky rocketed.... ROCKET fuel
Eye, or not, dry air is being a bit of a pest to Daniel.
thought 2011 was the year of fake storms
It always is during hurricane season. Just have to actually get a system in it that can develop with good upper level conditions. Upper level conditions in the Gulf will probably be less than ideal this year due to El Nino.
Nobody ever believes me when I call eye lol.
chills down my spine.
It really should be 2011 emilys children
thatts where we got half our named storms
Because it normally isn't one..duh. :-)
twas all a joke.
i read the blog.
no hard feelings between anyone
I think that it's (Daniel) is a bit stronger...maybe a 60mph TS.
C'mon, just spit it out, T-E-X-A-S. :)
That's in knots, which is 60 mph.
OK, thanks for the correction.
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
228 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012
TROPICAL WAVE AT 72W IS WELL ORGANIZED AND PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER PUERTO RICO. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS HISPANIOLA/TURKS AND CAICOS BY 24-42 HRS...ACROSS JAMAICA/SOUTHERN CUBA/CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY 36-60 HRS...NICARAGUA/HONDURAS/WESTERN CUBA BY 54-66 HRS AND GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR/YUCATAN BY 66-84 HRS. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES NEARING 60MM...AND IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. FURTHERMORE...THIS WAVE IS TO INTERACT WITH A TUTT CURRENTLY ACROSS BAHAMAS/EASTERN CUBA/JAMAICA...WHICH WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AS IT CROSSES THE ISLANDS. OVER PUERTO RICO...EXPECT ACTIVE CONVECTION TO CEASE DURING THE EVENING TODAY TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. OVER HISPANIOLA...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY. OVER JAMAICA...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY. OVER CUBA EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS PEAKING AT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY. OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE TO 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY OVER THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. OVER MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR GUATEMALA...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS. TO THE NORTH...OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF HONDURAS/BELIZE/GUATEMALA...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. ALSO...EXPECT POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY MARINE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WEST COAST OF NICARAGUA/GULF OF FONSECA.
Link
Not true!
More of a heavy rain threat and notice what it does to the Tropical Wave. Turns whatever is in the East Gulf into the Big Bend of FL. This could be FL's year if this pattern holds.
We tight son
... you scream wolf a lot...
jk
The euro spits the 1016 millibar isobar more towards the Central gulf coast due to a trough dipping down
liar!!!!!! ;)
btw, are you doing better today?
not so angry it seems...
Yeah, I havent been able to look at the models much but I noticed yesterday that the Nogaps was showing signs of organization of the wave heading into Florida but it was more of the east coast than the west coast..let me check out the models and see if its switched to the Euro version..and yeah, I think this is Florida's year like 2010 was texas year
i dont see an 'outbreak', maybe a few storms..
yup i figured it might do that.
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