Extreme flood in Russia kills 171
Earth's deadliest flood of 2012 hit the Black Sea area of Russia on Saturday, where 300 mm (11.8") of rain fell in less than 24 hours. The resulting flood waters swept through the town of Krymsk in the Krasnodar region early Saturday, killing at least 171 people. The heavy rains were caused by a low pressure system that tracked just north of the region. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the low brought moisture-laden air from the Black Sea northwards over the mountains bordering the Black Sea. As the air was forced upwards by the mountains, its water vapor cooled and condensed into heavy rains. The rains were increased due to ocean temperatures in the Eastern Black Sea that were more than 2°C (3.6°F) above average. The extra heat in the ocean allowed much more water vapor than usual to evaporate into the air. Rare 1-in-20 year heavy precipitation events like the one that caused the Krasnodar flood are expected to increase in frequency due to climate change, as the waters of the Black Sea warm. According to the 2011 Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), issued by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1-in-20 year extreme precipitation events are likely to occur with a 1-in-11 to 1-in-15 year frequency by the year 2100 in the Black Sea area of Russia. A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, increasing the odds of very heavy precipitation events.
Figure 1. Flood damage in Krymsk, Russia, from Saturday's deadly flood. Image credit: Associated Press.
Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Russia's Krasnodar region along the northeast coast of the Black Sea, taken at 09:30 UTC Friday, July 6, 2012. The counter-clockwise flow of air around a spiraling low pressure system centered just north of the region was bringing a flow or moisture-laden air from the Black Sea over the city of Krymsk. Image credit: NASA.
Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.
I'll be back this afternoon with a full wrap-up on the remarkable heat wave of 2012.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Colder cloud tops continue to wrap around the eyewall. I wouldn't say it has stopped just yet.
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2012 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 12:46:42 N Lon : 110:22:02 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 962.6mb/ 99.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.8 6.0
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km
Center Temp : +4.9C Cloud Region Temp : -65.6C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 62km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.1 degrees
With that high positioned as is, the GOM is protected. I would expect a Dean type path straight into Central America.
I live in Palm Harbor. It has been noisy today.
Yeah there must be some other kind of inhibiting factor to development there though. At least in the BOC according to the GFS because they have shown a low sitting there forever. Latest run shows a low trying to spin up twice as it crosses the GOM east to west before losing it as it comes ashore around TX/LA.
Too Strong IMO. I doubt we will see any tropical activity, in the C-Atl at least until that high weakens a little bit. T-waves are quickly becoming detached from ITCZ so there is nothing really enhancing to get them spinning, no moisture source. Then they quickly dry out in the subsidence they are left in.
By Joel Achenbach Washington Post
Saturday night I hung out in my sauna. Actually I just sat on the front porch. It was 101 degrees at 8:15 p.m., according to the Post website; while weather.com reported that it was 99 degrees. In such situations I prefer the front porch because of the veneer of civilization suggested by the street, the cars, the other houses. The back porch views nature, which, we now know, is not our friend.
We seem to have suddenly jumped from the Holocene back to the Eocene. Soon there will be ferns and palm trees in Greenland.
It’s not climate change that worries me. It’s climate change denialism, and all other forms of anti-scientific thinking, and solution-deferring, and the covering of the eyes in hopes that it will create invisibility.
On “This Week,” George Will blamed the current heat wave on “summer,” which is certainly technically true. He seems to believe that only hysterics get concerned about climate change when the thermometer is stuck at 100 for two weeks and all-time temperature records have fallen in much of the country, and all this coming after a bizarrely winterless winter:
“You asked us -- how do we explain the heat? One word: summer. I grew up in central Illinois in a house without air conditioning. What is so unusual about this? Now, come the winter, there will be a cold snap, lots of snow, and the same guys, like E.J. [Dionne], will start lecturing us. There’s a difference between the weather and the climate. I agree with that. We’re having some hot weather. Get over it.”
I’m not sure that advanced the conversation. Yes, climate and weather are different, but E.J. didn’t argue that the heat wave is due to climate change, he merely argued that it would be prudent to assume that climate change is going to create problems for us and we should take precautions. You can argue solutions all you want, and there is abundant room for disagreement about how to respond most effectively to climate change. But to say it’s just summer is too much like the Black Night in “Monty Python and the Holy Grail” saying it’s just a flesh wound.
At some point we should stop litigating the basic question of whether climate change is happening. Climate change is a fact. The spike in atmospheric CO2 is a fact. The dramatic high-latitude warming is a fact. That the trends aren’t uniform and linear, and that there are anomalies here and there, does not change the long-term pattern. The warming trend has flattened out in the last decade but probably only because of air pollution from Chinese coal-fired power plants or somesuch forcing we haven’t fully discovered (smog is hardly the long-term solution we should be seeking). The broader patterns are clear.
Models show the greatest warming spike down the road still, decades hence. Thus in a sense, saying that “this is what global warming is like” whenever we have a heat wave actually understates the problem. Having spent much of my life in Florida, I can tell you, what kills you in summer is not the temperature but the duration of the season, which lasts basically forever — into November or even December in South Florida. So, yeah, 100 degrees in July gets my attention here in DC, but so will a stretch of 85-degree high temperatures in October.
Let’s say it’s April 1999 and you’re watching a baseball game, and a guy comes to the plate who is built like the Pentagon. He is so huge he has muscles not yet described by science. His neck is as wide as his head. He swings the bat so violently that the fans hear a sonic boom. He swings and misses a lot, but when he finally connects, he hits the ball completely out of the stadium and into the players parking lot. Question: Does this mean baseball players are using steroids?
It’s an unfair question, clearly. Babe Ruth used to hit home runs like that, and he wasn’t on steroids, he was on hot dogs and beer. But the scenario I’ve described is consistent with steroid use by baseball players.
Seems to me it’s not the heat, it’s the temerity that’s our real problem – the temerity to think that we can go, quickly, from about a billion people to 7 billion, on our way to 9 billion, with dramatic increases in resource usage and energy consumption and carbon emissions and so on, without it having dramatic consequences for the planet.
My suspicion (and others will recoil from this) is that the planet in the future will have to be managed the way you run a nuclear power plant – lots of engineers, risk assessors, government oversight, a public-private partnership of sorts, with a steady eye toward low-probability but high-consequence events.
This isn’t the Thoreau view of nature, and it will incite objections from those who say we need to just pull back and stop putting so much stress on natural systems. But I think we need more science, more research, more engineering, more innovative solutions, and most of all more political leaders who understand that individual choice and free markets, though essential to modern society, by themselves will not protect the commons from long-term exploitation.
Or maybe the heat has gotten to me. I am retiring now to my fainting couch.
By Joel Achenbach | 09:29 AM ET, 07/09/2012
Based on satellite imagery and satellite estimates, I think it's a safe bet that Emilia is at least a 100kt major hurricane. As a matter of fact, ADT's raw T-number is that indicative of a 115kt category 4 cyclone.
And over my house.... Ddoooommm
Okay, good morning, I mean back from my nap
NWS Miami
The gulf coast is way overdue. Central America has already had their fair share of tropical systems in 2010 and 2011.
Amazing
In San Juan too.
Link
I've also noticed lately that trough never makes it off the east coast on the loops. Looks like it keeps a weakness over the gulf with the high building and receding the whole time. Of course I could be wrong.
Major weakening of the northern and eastern eyewall but the southern eyewall has exploded over the last few minutes
Did the EWRC happen while I was asleep
Intense thunderstorms are currently over the Pinellas County beaches, stretching from Clearwater Beach south to St. Pete Beach.
The storms are producing frequent lightning and could be accompanied by gusty winds and even waterspouts, Bay News 9 chief meteorologist Mike Clay said.
Most of the storms are either along the beaches or just offshore, but lightning could strike well inland, Clay said.
Tune to Bay News 9 now for more information and check back here frequently.
It's the second time today Pinellas County has been hit by storms. Early today, residents in Clearwater and Largo woke up to rain.
A storm moved slowly through that area, dropping more than a half-inch of rain in Clearwater and Largo.
Locally heavy rain is possible throughout the afternoon.
Look up to where Daniel stopped intensifying, that was a long way out, maybe Emilia still has quite a white to make it all the way but I don't look forward to it because she is moving more poleward and into cooler waters faster than Daniel
09/1800 UTC 15.4N 129.8W T3.5/4.0 DANIEL -- East Pacific
The ridge is stronger this year
Crews are responding to a mutli-alarm fire at a three-story building in Tarpon Springs.
Officials say they believe the fire was started by lightning.
No injuries have been reported at this stime.
The building is located on Florida Ave. N near Tarpon Springs.
There was no EWRC.
Did you know that it takes warmer water than the "standard 26C" to support a major hurricane? Daniel was a VERY rare case, we can only assume that it will not happen with emilia
Dang did it go annular?
No... it hasn't. Not ruling it out though in the near future.
IDK there have been weird stuff in the EPac since last year.. anything can happen
Yeah. That's what I was afraid of. If something does get going out there it doesn't look to recurve as things stand now. May change though.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
124 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
TXC201-091915-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0067.120709T1824Z-120709T1915Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-
124 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 215 PM CDT
* AT 112 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2.5 INCHES PER
HOUR OVER THE REGION. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE STREET
AND FEEDER ROAD FLOODING AT THE USUAL SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS. THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
HOUSTON...PASADENA...BAYTOWN...KINGWOOD...SPRING.. .LA PORTE...
CHANNELVIEW...DEER PARK...CLOVERLEAF...HUMBLE...SOUTH HOUSTON...
ALDINE...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...HIGHLANDS...BARRETT...CROSBY...
SHELDON AND MORGAN`S POINT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY
A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 2967 9499 2962 9504 2956 9525 2960 9528
2959 9535 3003 9561 3011 9542 3003 9531
3003 9526 3017 9510 3000 9503 2999 9500
2995 9498 2993 9500 2987 9498 2983 9493
2976 9492 2972 9495 2969 9492
$$
No...
Well, October with el niño if we dd get a long track (unlikely) the troughs would be weaker, we need to hope the next two and a half months go well for us.
09/1800 UTC 12.8N 110.5W T5.0/5.0 EMILIA -- East Pacific
I'm messing with TA13
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2012 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 12:54:04 N Lon : 110:27:02 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 960.6mb/102.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.6 5.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km
Center Temp : -25.6C Cloud Region Temp : -66.6C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 62km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.1 degrees
The numbers continues to climb in the past few hours. 102 Knots = 117.38 MPH
Oh I do hope all goes well. And as lovely as they are I'm glad Daniel and Emilia are in the middle of the Pacific. :)
128N, 1105W, 95, 969, HU
110 mph
But I think it should be 115 at least...
It still has the dry air
Look like Emilia is 110 MPH now.
Viewing: 401 - 451
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