U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again
Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.
Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.
Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.
Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"
"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.
A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."
It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Loop
WTPZ35 KNHC 101438
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012
...POWERFUL HURRICANE EMILIA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 113.7W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
I feel ya, its getting almost as bad here now too. I have dumped just under 0.25 inches in the last 8 weeks. Crops are gone.
Guess 135 mph is no longer being used.
WTPZ45 KNHC 101439
TCDEP5
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE CENTRAL FEATURES BECAME A LITTLE
RAGGED-LOOKING ON ENHANCED IR IMAGERY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS DERIVED
FROM SUBJECTIVE CLASSIFICATIONS BY TAFB AND SAB HAVE DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY
TO 115 KT. EMILIA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BEING
IMPEDED SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE. THE
SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS REGIME WILL MORE OR LESS CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE RELAXING
SOMEWHAT IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THE
MAINTENANCE OF A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
WEAKENING...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS CALLED FOR BY THE SHIPS/LGEM AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 285/9.
GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THAT A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS A CONTINUED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANGES IN FORWARD SPEED. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TURN...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TYPICALLY TOP-PERFORMING ECMWF MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 13.7N 113.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 14.1N 115.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 14.6N 117.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 15.1N 118.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 15.6N 120.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 16.5N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 17.5N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Its part of the Duh-ing down of America.
Yeah. That's kinda weird.
We are Nola casting now?
Im surprised... it's not 135 mph anymore. Would they ever use again?
Who knows what the ACE value for this one is because I'm keeping track of it?
27N 70W and 8N 55W
Yea because the season is over huh troll?
Stay with area of interest
7.06 units.
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
148 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2012
To: Subscribers:
-Family of Services
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
-NOAAPORT
Other NWS partners and NWS employees
From: Mark Tew
Chief, Marine and Coastal Services Branch
Subject: Minor Modification of Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale Thresholds Effective May 15, 2012
Effective May 15, 2012, the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
(SSHWS) will be adjusted slightly to resolve issues associated
with the conversion of units used for wind speed. This change
follows a public comment period conducted in 2011.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane
(CPHC) assign intensities of hurricanes in 5-knot (kt)
increments. For advisory products, these intensities are
converted to miles per hour (mph) and kilometers per hour (km/h),
and then rounded to the nearest 5-mph or 5-km/h increments.
Challenges occur when the current Category 4 intensity is 115 kt
(132.3 mph). Although 115 kt is within the Category 4 range, the
equivalent rounded wind speed in mph is 130 mph, which is in the
Category 3 range. To classify the hurricane as a Category 4 in
both sets of units (kt and mph), NHC and CPHC must incorrectly
convert 115 kt to 135 mph in the advisory products. A similar
issue occurs when the current Category 4 intensity of 135 kt is
converted to km/h.
Effective May 15, 2012, to resolve these rounding issues,
Category 4 on the SSHWS will be broadened by one mph at each end
of the range, yielding a new range of 130-156 mph. This will
also result in a minor modification of the Category 3 and 5 wind
speed thresholds. The SSHWS will change as follows:
From:
Category 3: 111-130 mph (96-113 kt, 178-209 km/h)
Category 4: 131-155 mph (114-135 kt, 210-249 km/h)
Category 5: 156 mph or higher (136 kt or higher, 250 km/h or
higher)
To:
Category 3: 111-129 mph (96-112 kt, 178-208 km/h)
Category 4: 130-156 mph (113-136 kt, 209-251 km/h)
Category 5: 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher, 252 km/h or
higher)
There will be no change to the wind speeds currently assigned to
Categories 1 and 2.
With this change, a 115-kt Category 4 hurricane will have its
intensity properly converted to mph and rounded to the nearest 5
mph (130 mph) and remain within the Category 4 mph range.
But the big question on my mind is why no one is discussing the recent (as in, beginning in the Fall of last year) increase in solar flares and their connection to the recent heatwave? IMHO the flares are likely the culprit.
no, no, I mean the ACE value for 130 mph winds. since 135 mph was 1.3225, would they use that one?
Posted: Tuesday, 10 July 2012 6:15AM
New Orleans tops tourism list for 3rd year
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"
However...
YMMV...
Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.
The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.
but NO circles...
What's the science you're using to connect solar flares and the recent heat wave?
Actually thats a quite interesting subject. Our company is considering moving our data center to Arizona for this exact reason.
That's quite a bit.
CO2. Us.
Methane. We drill holes in the Earth and let it out.
Carbon black/soot. Humans burn stuff and make soot.
Nitrous oxide. Us.
Ozone. Us.
Water vapor. We've heated up the planet, heat evaporates water. Us.
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