U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again
Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.
Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.
Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.
Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"
"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.
A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."
It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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To WxGeekVA: Emilia is going to eat that doughnut if you keep waving it in front of her like that. lol
You better get mostly A's also through the rest of high school if you expect to make it through Meteorology school, not to scare ya man but just saying don't get to excited, just keep on workin.
130 MPH
oh we got 6"
and it was powdery
it even covered the road for 6 hours!!!
We can "see" the climate of the past by extracting ice cores from the poles and look at the gases in the air bubbles on the inside. (It is just like looking at soil layers and being able to tell if there was a flood or a period of flourishing for a certain type of species.) From there we can see how often a certain event happens and then come up with probabilities for these events and then compare to today's climate.
and wondered if the person who was freaking out about mercury in
light bulbs the other night, avoids food containing high fructose corn syrup...
The following is from:
http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2012/07/0 9/can-banning-big-gulps-have-an-environmental-bene fit/
"Certainly, the industrial process used to manufacture HCFS is not environmentally friendly. Lye (also known as caustic soda) is used to remove corn starch from the kernel. Hydrochloric acid and an assortment of enzymes are added as the mix is heated and pressurized. It is also worth pointing out that lye has been sourced from industrial plants that use mercury in the production process (creating federal superfund sites that take decades to clean up), and scientists have found mercury in commercial brands of HCFS as well as products listing HCFS as an ingredient."
And know back to the tropics:
map above was this time 2011
map below shows now
we are way way ahead on ice loss
almost to the point of no rtn
faster and faster
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2012 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 13:15:00 N Lon : 112:02:45 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 947.6mb/117.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.3 6.3
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km
Center Temp : -11.6C Cloud Region Temp : -72.3C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.7 degrees
The most snowfall in 1 event was a wet 4" but we had atleast a few false alarms. Even though I'm almost 15 The 2011-2012 winter was the worst I went through( I extremely love lots of snow). As long as its better than last year and I make some money from snow removal I'll be fine.
The most I remember was the winter of 03-04 I think. Nashville picked up something like a foot of snow. That was amazing since I was 7 at the time and had siblings who played with me and snowball fights. Although Nashville can't clean itself up after a dusting...
I hope there is more snow this year too. I miss sledding down my hill face-first... *tearing up*
What do you peoples think Daniel will be at the next advisory and when will it dissipate?
Strong Tropical Storm, maybe 65-70 mph, dissipation sometime late Wednesday/early Thursday.
60MPH WEDNESDAY
The eye is not as cleared out as earlier but she is still imo strengthening.
Year before last so 10-11, we had a white Christmas with an inch or so. That was interesting for our cat since he had never experienced one. He always wanted to be inside, but we managed to get him outside so we could put snow on top of him and make him more like our dog (Great Pyrenees). That was fun.
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Fabio anyone?
Please read back to find out the answer too that
Emilia:
The GOM looked a bit angry today. Possible flare up?
Sounded like fun, I like winter and hopefully it is not ruined like last year.
That's quite worrying to say the least. Good night everyone...I'm off to bed!
She looks pretty healthy!
Link
Good night, y'all.
Isn't there a TUTT ( Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) in the vicinity of the Florida Straits?
Im not exactly sure if a TUTT would work the same as a ULL toward Tropical Development,but I think they kinda the same thing? Someone can correct me if I am wrong.
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