Historic 2012 U.S. drought: 6th greatest on record
The great drought of 2012 is upon us. The percentage area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought increased to 56% by the end of June, and ranked as the sixth largest drought since U.S. weather records began in 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in their monthly State of the Climate drought report on Monday. The last time more of the U.S. was in drought occurred in December 1956, with 58%. June 2012 ranked as the 10th greatest U.S. drought on record, when considering the percentage area of the U.S. in severe or greater drought (33%.)
Figure 1. June 2012 ranked in sixth place for the greatest percent area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought, since record keeping began in 1895. Graphic created from data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
The forecast: hot and dry with increasing drought
The great drought of 2012 is going to steadily worsen during the remainder of July. Recent runs of the global computer forecast models predict a continuation through the end of July of the large-scale jet stream patterns that have brought the U.S. its hot, dry summer weather. The most extreme heat will tend to be focused over the center portion of the county. That was certainly the case Monday, with temperatures near or in excess of 100° observed from South Dakota to Michigan. High temperatures near 100°F are expected in Chicago and Detroit on Tuesday, and over much of the Midwest.
Figure 2. Comparison of drought between June 2012 (top) and June 1988 (bottom) shows that drought conditions covered a similar proportion of the contiguous U.S., but the spatial patterns were different. The 2012 drought is especially intense over the Southwest U.S., but in 1988, this region experienced a very active summer monsoon season that kept the region moist. However, in 1988, the Northern Plains were much drier than in 2012. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.
A multi-billion dollar drought disaster underway
Agronomists and drought experts are comparing the scale and intensity of the 2012 drought to the 1988 drought. With the forecast offering little optimism, the costs of the 2012 drought are certain to be many billions of dollars, and the disaster could be one of the top ten most expensive weather-related disasters in U.S. history. Droughts historically have been some of the costliest U.S. weather disasters. A four-year drought and locust plague from 1874 - 1877 cost $169 billion (2012 dollars), and was arguably the most expensive weather related disaster in U.S. history (see Jeffrey Lockwood's 2004 book, Locust.) The costs of the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s, which displaced 2.5 million people, are incalculable. The costs of government financial assistance alone were $13 billion in 2012 dollars (Warrick, 1980.) The 1988 drought cost $78 billion (2012 dollars), the second most expensive weather disaster since 1980, behind Hurricane Katrina.
The associated heat wave of the great drought of 2012 is also a major concern. The heat waves associated with the great droughts of 1980 and 1988 killed between 7,500 - 10,000 people, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The heat waves of the 1930s are blamed for 5,000 deaths. The death toll from the 2012 heat wave is approaching 100, including 23 in Chicago, up to 19 in Wisconsin, 18 in Maryland, 17 in St. Louis, and 9 in Philadelphia. The toll will undoubtedly grow as more heat-related deaths are discovered, and as the heat continues.
Figure 3. The U.S. has seen twelve weather-related disasters costing at least $15 billion since 1980, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Two of the top three most expensive disasters have been droughts.
Tornadoes kill one, injure ten in Poland
A series of rare tornadoes hit northern and western Poland over the weekend, killing one and injuring ten. At least 100 homes were destroyed, and one of the twisters measured 1 km (0.6 miles) in diameter. Tornadoes are quite rare in Poland. According to the publication, An updated estimate of tornado occurrence in Europe by Nikolai Dotzek (2003), Poland reports about two tornadoes per year, and probably has two more per year that are unreported. Thanks go to wunderground member beell for posting this link.
Video 1. Raw footage of the weekend tornadoes that hit Poland.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I prefer popeye's. I do like KFC roasted chicken but it is too expensive. I've stayed with my own chicken vindaloo lately.
Perhaps this could explain it for you. I believe they were referring to baroclinic instability in the ocean may be caused by sea surface termperature and wind stress.
Link
EP, 06, 2012071800, , BEST, 0, 235N, 1205W, 30, 1006, TD
Link
Wash..you know the secret recipe?..do tell!
Yeah. Uh huh. I prefer irregular German verbs to this.
send them to me in WU mail..I wanna take a crack at it..
LOL. sein bin-bist-ist-seid-sein
war-warst-war waren-wart
bin gewesen-bist gewesen-ist gewesen
sind gewesen-waren gewesen...etc. etc.
Whatever next.
Hot Fashion?
Widespread Drought Continues to Intensify Across Southwest Lower Michigan
Synopsis
Ongoing persistent dryness along with well above normal temperatures has led to steadily worsening drought conditions across the region. The outlook for the remainder of July indicates continued below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures. A continued warmer and drier than normal scenario will undoubtedly support a detrimental increase in regional drought severity. Extended drought conditions will lead to further water supply issues, such as record low streamflows and heavier strains on aquifers. Agricultural loss estimates will continue to mount. Crop yield estimates will likely diminish and livestock stress and losses will increase.
The drought intensity across the region varies, as defined by The United States Drought Monitor Index:
Across Southwest Lower Michigan, D0 to D1 or Abnormally Dry to Moderate drought conditions exist.
Summary of impacts
-Reports of large and rapidly spreading grass and field fires have already been reported. This trend will be expected to worsen as live fuel moisture content continues to decrease.
-Many creeks and streams are running at or near record low flow. Large stem river flows are in the single percentile of normal flow, with some at all-time record low flow.
-The shallow water levels have led to warmer than normal streamwater temperatures, and this is causing increased concern for unfavorable aquatic habitat for mussels and other macro invertebrates.
-Agricultural impacts are continually being assessed, however economic losses are already being reported for this growing season.
Climate summary
Rainfall over the region has been significantly below normal for the past month and below normal since June. This lack of rain has led to some of the driest conditions on record.
Precipitation/temperature outlook
With the exception of a few fast moving weather systems, high pressure will continue to dominate the weather over the region through the end of July. Continued dry weather and warming daytime temperatures will steadily worsen the drought conditions in Southwest Lower Michigan, while the latest 6 to 10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates the chance for above normal precipitation, conditions do not look favorable for widespread heavy rainfall from July 17th through July 21st. While temperatures will be near normal this weekend, climatological trends and long range forecasts indicate hot temperatures will return by the start of next week and continue.
Hydrologic summary and outlook
All rivers across Southwest Lower Michigan are experiencing flows that are at or near record low values. There has been a gradual but steady fall in river and stream levels over the past several months and this trend is expected to continue through September when average flow minimums occur. With the lack of significant rainfall expected, rivers and streams are expected to continue their slow fall through July. Lake levels across the region are expected to continue to fall as well. This may create problems for boaters and swimmers. Caution should be exercised as more hazardous objects that had been covered by water may now be exposed or nearly exposed.
The Hopi tribe says that when there is an invisible web in the sky, the end is near. Now one has appeared, linking up all of the cell phones, etc....
Not much going on wave wise
Yeah,only a couple of weak waves right now. I think July will go without any development. IMO,Ernesto will form by the second week of August.
Anyone ever been to the Big Chicken:
The eyes move in a circle and the beak opens and closes
The world's great deserts were formed by natural processes interacting over long intervals of time. During most of these times, deserts have grown and shrunk independent of human activities. Paleodeserts, large sand seas now inactive because they are stabilized by vegetation, extend well beyond the present margins of core deserts, such as the Sahara. In some regions, deserts are separated sharply from surrounding, less arid areas by mountains and other contrasting landforms that reflect basic structural differences in the regional geology. In other areas, desert fringes form a gradual transition from a dry to a more humid environment, making it more difficult to define the desert border.
These transition zones have very fragile, delicately balanced ecosystems. Desert fringes often are a mosaic of microclimates. Small hollows support vegetation that picks up heat from the hot winds and protects the land from the prevailing winds. After rainfall the vegetated areas are distinctly cooler than the surroundings. In these marginal areas, human activity may stress the ecosystem beyond its tolerance limit, resulting in degradation of the land. By pounding the soil with their hooves, livestock compact the substrate, increase the proportion of fine material, and reduce the percolation rate of the soil, thus encouraging erosion by wind and water. Grazing and the collection of firewood reduces or eliminates plants that help to bind the soil.
Below is the encroachment of the Sahara in Mauritania.
I'll see your chill music and raise you this:
Link
wtf
this is how you roll
Local on the 8s music ^
This beats all.
We got lucky with Hermine Sept 10... If she hadn't come through AND last year happened like it did.... we would have no Highland Lakes at all.
With no persistent high pressure dome this year, we have a good a chance as anybody else of a drenching TS.
im munching on some seedless grapes.......ummmmmmm
O'ahu's south shores invaded by mysterious creature
Reported by: Brianne Randle
The south shore of O'ahu is being invaded by something strange from sea, that even has sand crabs running for cover.
"It's the first time I've seen this, I've never seen it before," says beach goer Bruce Kuwana.
"It's really weird, it looks like you want to eat it like a little berry," says beach goer Sonya Lake.
"There are probably millions I'd say," says beach goer Scott Paddock.
If you look closely the entire shoreline is dotted with tiny, purple creatures all curled up.
"Looks like it has about it 6 legs on each side," says Lake. "Yeah it's like an avatar crab."
"When something washes up like this you don't know what to expect, maybe Tsunami stuff," says Kuwana.
It's something many have never seen before. And no one we found knew what they were.
"I definitely want to know where they came from and what they are all about," says Paddock.
Even the biologists at the Waikiki Aquarium are scratching their heads. They've been getting reports of the pea-sized crabs from Kahala to Ala Moana, all this week.
"The lifeguard called and asked what these things were because she had reports of surfers were actually have these things crawl up on their boards and onto them," says Norton Chan, Waikiki Aquarium Biologist.
He can't find a specific name for the animal - all he knows is they are some type of crab still in the larvae stage.
"What you are seeing is a swimming stage probably a few more molts before they settle into their actual crab stage itself," says Chan.
Likely the ones we spotted on the sand were dead or will be soon. He estimates there could have been millions that came up onto our beaches in the past few days.
"I don't think it's that common but ever so often when conditions are right these animals really start coming in," says Chan.
Waikiki Aquarium officials are saving some, hoping to keep them alive long enough to see how they grow.
"There's a lot of things we don't know about the ocean so any opportunity like this is a great learning experience," says Chan.
At this point it's still unknown where these crabs came from, how big they'll get and what they eat.
Posted on July 17, 2012
July 17, 2012 – ALASKA – Looking for relief from the heat over much of the Lower 48 states? Head to coastal Alaska where they are experiencing the coldest first half of July on record! Through the first 14 days of July, the average temperature in Anchorage was 53.1 degrees factoring in daily highs and lows, which makes it the coldest first half of the month on record according to the National Weather Service in Anchorage. Should this temperature trend continue, it could threaten the record for the coldest July ever, which occurred in 1920 and had an average temperature of 54.4 degrees. Typically this stretch of time is the warmest of the year. Instead, temperatures in the city of Anchorage are running 5.3 degrees below average. Some days have even turned out colder than cities on the Arctic Coast such as Barrow. On July 12th, the high temperature topped out at 54 degrees in Anchorage, while temperatures soared to 62 in Barrow (a whooping 15 degrees above average.) Not only has it been cool, but residents of the Alaska city haven’t seen much sunlight due to overcast skies and a persistent flow off the ocean. Rainfall through the first 14 days is running slightly above normal at 120 percent. But the clouds and cool temperatures have been the bigger story. –Accuweather
Ice break: A massive iceberg larger than Manhattan has broken away from the floating end of a Greenland glacier this week, an event scientists predicted last autumn. The giant ice island is 46 square miles, and separated from the terminus of the Petermann Glacier, one of Greenland’s largest. The Petermann Glacier last birthed — or “calved” — a massive iceberg two years ago, in August 2010. The iceberg that broke off and floated away was nearly four times the size of Manhattan, and one of the largest ever recorded in Greenland. Although the new iceberg isn’t as colossal as its 2010 predecessor, its birth has moved the front end of the massive glacier farther inland than it has been in 150 years, Andreas Muenchow, an associate professor of physical ocean science and engineering at the University of Delaware, said in a statement. Jason Box, a scientist with Ohio State University’s Byrd Polar Research Center, has also been monitoring the Petermann Glacier and in September 2011 he told OurAmazingPlanet that a growing crack likely would sever the glacier once warmer weather took hold during the summer months. “We can see the crack widening in the past year through satellite pictures, so it seems imminent,” Box said at the time. Muenchow said that the newest ice island broke away on Monday morning (July 16). Although iceberg birth is a natural, cyclical process, when the process speeds up, there are consequences. The floating ends of glaciers, known as ice shelves, act as doorstops. When these ice shelves suddenly splinter and weaken or even collapse entirely, as has been observed in Antarctica, the glaciers that feed them speed up, dumping more ice into the ocean and raising global sea levels. “The Greenland ice sheet as a whole is shrinking, melting and reducing in size as the result of globally changing air and ocean temperatures and associated changes in circulation patterns in both the ocean and atmosphere,” Muenchow said. -MSNBC
Jet stream changes may bring warmer weather to UK
Just in time...
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