Historic 2012 U.S. drought continues to expand and intensify
The great U.S. drought of 2012 continues to accelerate, and grew larger and more intense over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, July 19. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought expanded from 61% to 64%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought jumped from 37% to 42%. These are truly historic levels of drought, exceeded only during the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s and a severe drought in the mid-1950s. If we make the reasonable assumption that the current area covered by drought is representative of what the average for the entire month of July will be (based on the latest drought forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center), the July 2012 drought is second only to the great Dust Bowl drought of July 1934 in terms of the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought. The five months with the greatest percent area in moderate or greater drought, since 1895, now look like this:
1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Jul 2012, 64%
3) Dec 1939, 60%
4) Jul 1954, 60%
5) Dec 1956, 58%
If we consider the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by severe or greater drought, July 2012 ranks in 5th place:
1) Jul 1934, 63%
2) Sep 1954, 50%
3) Dec 1956, 43%
4) Aug 1936, 43%
5) Jul 2012, 42%
Figure 1. The twice-monthly U.S. Drought Outlook, updated on Thursday, July 19, predicts that drought will continue through October over most of the U.S., and expand to the north and northeast. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The drought forecast: not encouraging
In their twice-monthly drought outlook, released on Thursday, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center had this to say about the drought: The combination of heat and dryness has severely reduced the quality and quantity of the corn and soybean crop, with 38 percent of the corn and 30 percent of the soybeans rated as poor or very poor as of July 15 by NASS/USDA. Some states, such as Kentucky, Missouri, and Indiana, had over 70 percent of their corn adversely rated. Unfortunately, drought is expected to develop, persist, or intensify across these areas, and temperatures are likely to average above normal. Some widely-scattered relief may come in the form of cold front passages or organized thunderstorm clusters (MCSs), but widespread relief for much of the area is not expected. Unfortunately, the self-perpetuation of regional drought conditions, with very dry soils and very limited evapotranspiration, tends to inhibit widespread development of or weaken existing thunderstorm complexes. It would require a dramatic shift in the weather pattern to provide significant relief to this drought, and most tools and models do not forecast this. Unfortunately, all indicators (short and medium-term, August, and August-October) favor above normal temperatures. With much of the Plains already in drought, above normal temperatures expected into the fall, and a dry short-term and 30-day forecast, the drought should persist, with some possible development in the northern Plains.
One bright spot: drought conditions are expected to improve over the Southwest U.S. over the next few weeks, as the annual summer monsoon peaks and brings heavy rains. The Southeast U.S. has seen some improvement over the past week, due to an upper-level low pressure system that has brought heavy rains. The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S.
Figure 2. The U.S. has seen twelve weather-related disasters costing at least $15 billion since 1980, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Two of the top three most expensive disasters have been droughts. The drought of 2012 could well make it three out of four. "It might be a $50 billion event for the economy as it blends into everything over the next four quarters," said Michael Swanson, agricultural economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, the largest commercial agriculture lender. Only three $50 billion weather disasters have hit the U.S. since 1980.
The Atlantic is quiet
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss. The models are showing formation of an extratropical cyclone along an old frontal boundary over 1,000 miles off the Northeast U.S. coast on Tuesday, and it is possible such a storm could acquire tropical characteristics and get a name. Such a storm would not be a threat to any land areas. There is an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean that is squashing development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa, so it doesn't look too likely that the U.S. will get something it really needs--a big, wet Category 1 hurricane that sloshes ashore over the Gulf Coast, stalling over the Midwest, bringing copious drought-busting rains.
Figure 3. Portlight volunteers unloading supplies at the FBC in Henryville, Indiana on March 10, 2012. Henryville was devastated by an EF-4 tornado on March 2 that killed 11 people along its path.
Helping out with disaster relief
It's been another busy year for natural disasters in the U.S., and the portlight.org disaster-relief charity, founded by members of the wunderground community, has been very active helping out victims of this year's disasters. Portlight responded to the deadly March tornado outbreak in the Midwest, two separate April tornado outbreaks in Texas and Oklahoma, and the June wildfires in Colorado. Paul Timmons of Portlight has put together a year-to-date summary of portlight's efforts in 2012, and has this call for action:
Now we’re in July…things have gotten quiet, but we know they won’t be quiet for long. We’re in the middle of hurricane season and mid-summer is a time of unsettled and dangerous weather that happens when we least expect it. Our work is never really done and new tasks pop up all the time. With your help and the help of our friends like the amazing people at Wunderground.com and our new friends at Team Rubicon, The Mahalia Partnership, and CCDC, we will be ready.
Where do we go from here? That depends on you, our supporters, volunteers and friends. Our purpose hasn’t changed: we will continue providing support, relief and aid for unserved, under-served and forgotten people wherever they may be…
Peace to all this weekend, and I'll be back on Sunday or Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Scariest movie I ever saw. Of course, I was only about 10 at the time, so that might have made a difference.
OMG... Just realized... Yet another reason to worry about GW causing an Arctic meltdown... Do you remember how that movie ends?! ;)
Lol. Yeah, I was awakened by one of those times in 2007.
That's the one. :)
Comments on the N Gulf blob found in paragraph P6 of this blog update. I know it looks really circular and really cool...but surface pressures are high...
Lol. Ah well. We needed a little blobbage to enjoy for a bit. :)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09
15:00 PM JST July 21 2012
=====================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 19.1N 117.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 9 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 20.0N 115.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - South China Sea
be objective not biased.
0%
I went to bed. I would truly like to know if the photo is real. Maybe Snopes should check it out. You want to talk about hate? Look at your posts regarding me.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
348 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-21 2115-
/O.CAN.KTOP.HT.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-120721T1700Z/
/O.CON.KTOP.EH.W.0002.120721T1700Z-120726T0100Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-C LAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-G EARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COF FEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARYSVILLE...HIAWATHA...CONCORDIA...
CLAY CENTER...MANHATTAN...ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...
LAWRENCE...EMPORIA...OTTAWA
348 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8
PM CDT WEDNESDAY.
* TEMPERATURE...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 101 TO
109 DEGREES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HEAT INDEX IS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 103 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.
* IMPACTS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EXPOSURE TO EXTREME HEAT CAN
LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS...INCLUDING
HEAT CRAMPS...HEAT EXHAUSTION AND POTENTIALLY EVEN HEAT STROKE
IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
&&
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE A
DANGEROUS SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY AND CAN BE
LIFE THREATENING. PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID PROLONGED WORK IN
THE SUN...DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.
TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.
TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 9 1 1.
&&
$$
Sandy Creek Boat Launch in 2011
Sandy Creek Boat Ramp on July 12, 2012
Recent rains bring relief to lakes
Sea Rim State Park IS actually open
The seagulls would enjoy some company at Sea Rim State Park.
"We're hearing from some people that they didn't realize it was open until they drove up and saw the sign," said park superintendent Tracy Ferguson.
But the state park, which took back-to-back hits from Hurricanes Rita (2005) and Ike (2008), is open and has been for more than a year.
The park today resembles nothing of its former self. The enormous welcome center was demolished after Ike did catastrophic damage and roads are pretty much nonexistent within the park.
But along the five miles of beach just outside of Sabine Pass, a handful of visitors chase hermit crabs, pick up sea shells and toss balls to wet, sandy dogs.
After Ike, the park needed $7.5 million to put itself back to what it was, Ferguson said, but the state approved $2 million.
With the money, Texas Parks and Wildlife Department has started work that will at least provide basic services to guests, who pay a $3 per person fee to enter the park.
A boardwalk is being built over the dunes to get to the beach, rinse-off showers were installed and portable toilets set up.
The state's transportation department is also working to improve the storm damaged roadways within the park and putting down concrete for a 15-spot camping loop.
By next summer, the camp site is expected to be complete with water and electric hook ups.
Ferguson said many people set out to go to Sea Rim's neighbor, McFadden Wildlife Refuge, but once they see the condition it's it, they are glad to see Sea Rim is open.
The wildlife refuge, which is run by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services, is covered in mounds of seaweed,which created a barrier several feet deep between the beach and the water.
It is also coverd in trash – lots of trash.
Beer bottles, food packaging, abandoned shoes and leftover fireworks litter the beach.
The 30 day SOI continues to creep up and is now 14 days in a row that the daily SOI goes that way.
Link
itll keep rising and may drop soon based on GFS
TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 18N19W TO
10N20W MOVING NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS AT THE BASE
OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES ALL BUT THE FAR S GULF ANCHORED
OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN
APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA AND GALVESTON TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED JUST S OF CENTRAL CUBA COVERING THE SE GULF INTO THE W
ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING W ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE S
GULF S OF A LINE FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ALONG 24N90W TO TAMPICO
MEXICO INCLUDING CUBA...S MEXICO...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N87W TO BETWEEN
TAMPICO MEXICO AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN THEN WILL DRIFT N EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF
THE GULF THROUGH WED. TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR S GULF.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (1208)
21:00 PM JST July 21 2012
=====================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Vicente (996 hPa) located at 19.5N 117.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 20.2N 114.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - South China Sea
48 HRS: 20.6N 112.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - South China Sea
72 HRS: 21.0N 108.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Gulf of Tonkin
secretly videotape it and send me the video....
or are you too good a person
jk, dont do it
have fun.
And it has already produced 4 named storms. Imagine if none would have formed until now,how many season canceled posts would be up.
july is not the quietest month in the tropics, january is!!
In reality during hurricane season november is:
Month-------#Storms--Average Storms Per Month
January-April____5 ______<0.05
May_____________18 _____0.1
June____________80 _____0.5
July____________109 ____0.7
August__________352 ____2.2
September_______540 ____3.4
October_________314 ____2.0
November _______85 _____0.5
December _______16 _____0.1
it is an absolutely ugly morning here in DC
this fits in line with my 2 3 2 for ASO, i dont have any november storms predicted
Not for sake of argument, but for curiosity, I looked for the photo. If you google "submarine surface at North Pole" and click images, you will find it. Since the first sub surfaced at the North Pole in 1959, I see no reason why this would not be a real photo but of course have no proof. There are, and have always been, natural openings in the sea ice at the pole. A submarine surfacing there would mean nothing for either side in an argument on climate change. The issue is the extent of ice at the pole (or in this case, the lack thereof), not whether it should be possible for a sub to surface there. This has always been possible, given an opening at the correct spot.
Is it from a site, or do you have it downloaded onto a site like photobucket or is it from your computer?
from my local PC at home. DSL from ATT
Thats why we usually state that how a Wave appears over Africa,,is not a indication of how it will fare over the Water after exiting.
Good morning to you and everyone else
OK here we go,
#1) You're going to have to upload your pic onto site. Whether it be instagram, photobucket, wunderground, etc.
#2) Once on there then right click on the photo, and click/choose "copy image location"
#3) and then go ahead and begin posting your comment like you normally do but this time click on the image tab next to the "your comments" area and click the "image" box and a pop up box will appear.
#4) paste the pics URL in the pop up box.
Hope I didn't forget anything.
Hope this helps. If not send me WU mail. I decided to post this on here incase anyone else had the same question.
Many dead season posts would be posted already and then many more to come. At the same time though some people think with an early that there would be non-stop activity.
Alright then, July is still a quiet month. How ugly is it in DC and what do you mean by ugly.
Thanks
The photo is real. You can find it on a couple US Navy submarine photo sites. Search using the submarine names from the photo. The third sub from the UK and I do not find a photo site for them.
The official US Navy caption does not state that the subs are photographed at the North Pole, but in the Arctic during a cruise during which they did visit the North Pole.
My assumption, lacking proof to the contrary, is that the "At the North Pole" text added to the photo is incorrect. Whether that text was added out of error due to a poor reading of the Navy caption or for some personal reason I can not determine.
68F, 85% humidity, 10mph winds gusting higher, and drizzle to light rain, completely overcast and gloomy.
highs this afternoon in mid 70s to 80
they are tied
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