Historic 2012 U.S. drought continues to expand and intensify
The great U.S. drought of 2012 continues to accelerate, and grew larger and more intense over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, July 19. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought expanded from 61% to 64%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought jumped from 37% to 42%. These are truly historic levels of drought, exceeded only during the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s and a severe drought in the mid-1950s. If we make the reasonable assumption that the current area covered by drought is representative of what the average for the entire month of July will be (based on the latest drought forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center), the July 2012 drought is second only to the great Dust Bowl drought of July 1934 in terms of the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought. The five months with the greatest percent area in moderate or greater drought, since 1895, now look like this:
1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Jul 2012, 64%
3) Dec 1939, 60%
4) Jul 1954, 60%
5) Dec 1956, 58%
If we consider the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by severe or greater drought, July 2012 ranks in 5th place:
1) Jul 1934, 63%
2) Sep 1954, 50%
3) Dec 1956, 43%
4) Aug 1936, 43%
5) Jul 2012, 42%
Figure 1. The twice-monthly U.S. Drought Outlook, updated on Thursday, July 19, predicts that drought will continue through October over most of the U.S., and expand to the north and northeast. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The drought forecast: not encouraging
In their twice-monthly drought outlook, released on Thursday, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center had this to say about the drought: The combination of heat and dryness has severely reduced the quality and quantity of the corn and soybean crop, with 38 percent of the corn and 30 percent of the soybeans rated as poor or very poor as of July 15 by NASS/USDA. Some states, such as Kentucky, Missouri, and Indiana, had over 70 percent of their corn adversely rated. Unfortunately, drought is expected to develop, persist, or intensify across these areas, and temperatures are likely to average above normal. Some widely-scattered relief may come in the form of cold front passages or organized thunderstorm clusters (MCSs), but widespread relief for much of the area is not expected. Unfortunately, the self-perpetuation of regional drought conditions, with very dry soils and very limited evapotranspiration, tends to inhibit widespread development of or weaken existing thunderstorm complexes. It would require a dramatic shift in the weather pattern to provide significant relief to this drought, and most tools and models do not forecast this. Unfortunately, all indicators (short and medium-term, August, and August-October) favor above normal temperatures. With much of the Plains already in drought, above normal temperatures expected into the fall, and a dry short-term and 30-day forecast, the drought should persist, with some possible development in the northern Plains.
One bright spot: drought conditions are expected to improve over the Southwest U.S. over the next few weeks, as the annual summer monsoon peaks and brings heavy rains. The Southeast U.S. has seen some improvement over the past week, due to an upper-level low pressure system that has brought heavy rains. The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S.
Figure 2. The U.S. has seen twelve weather-related disasters costing at least $15 billion since 1980, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Two of the top three most expensive disasters have been droughts. The drought of 2012 could well make it three out of four. "It might be a $50 billion event for the economy as it blends into everything over the next four quarters," said Michael Swanson, agricultural economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, the largest commercial agriculture lender. Only three $50 billion weather disasters have hit the U.S. since 1980.
The Atlantic is quiet
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss. The models are showing formation of an extratropical cyclone along an old frontal boundary over 1,000 miles off the Northeast U.S. coast on Tuesday, and it is possible such a storm could acquire tropical characteristics and get a name. Such a storm would not be a threat to any land areas. There is an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean that is squashing development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa, so it doesn't look too likely that the U.S. will get something it really needs--a big, wet Category 1 hurricane that sloshes ashore over the Gulf Coast, stalling over the Midwest, bringing copious drought-busting rains.
Figure 3. Portlight volunteers unloading supplies at the FBC in Henryville, Indiana on March 10, 2012. Henryville was devastated by an EF-4 tornado on March 2 that killed 11 people along its path.
Helping out with disaster relief
It's been another busy year for natural disasters in the U.S., and the portlight.org disaster-relief charity, founded by members of the wunderground community, has been very active helping out victims of this year's disasters. Portlight responded to the deadly March tornado outbreak in the Midwest, two separate April tornado outbreaks in Texas and Oklahoma, and the June wildfires in Colorado. Paul Timmons of Portlight has put together a year-to-date summary of portlight's efforts in 2012, and has this call for action:
Now we’re in July…things have gotten quiet, but we know they won’t be quiet for long. We’re in the middle of hurricane season and mid-summer is a time of unsettled and dangerous weather that happens when we least expect it. Our work is never really done and new tasks pop up all the time. With your help and the help of our friends like the amazing people at Wunderground.com and our new friends at Team Rubicon, The Mahalia Partnership, and CCDC, we will be ready.
Where do we go from here? That depends on you, our supporters, volunteers and friends. Our purpose hasn’t changed: we will continue providing support, relief and aid for unserved, under-served and forgotten people wherever they may be…
Peace to all this weekend, and I'll be back on Sunday or Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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What the quote from July 2 is saying is that The Weather Channel Companies plans to cross link the blog with weather.com in which it would be viewable both here and there. What Dr. Masters is saying is that comments on the blog at weather.com will not be available at first, but nothing will change over here.
thats not what Pat said..and he knows EVERYTHING..He was the one who suggested it and here go everyone following up on it making a big deal out of NOTHING..
Sure. Today and the next 3 days in Houston:
Friday, 20
Chance of a Thunderstorm
100 | 73 °F
Chance of T-storms
Chance of
Precipitation
20%
Saturday, 21
Chance of a Thunderstorm
99 | 73 °F
Chance of T-storms
Chance of
Precipitation
20%
Sunday, 22
Chance of a Thunderstorm
93 | 73 °F
Chance of T-storms
Chance of
Precipitation
20%
Monday, 23
Chance of a Thunderstorm
91 | 73 °F
Chance of T-storms
Chance of
Precipitation
20%
So basically.. rubber stamp forecast, with only the high temp changing. WHEEEEEEEE!
While Pat does really know everything (as would be expected of a Marine living in New Orleans), it is very easily to misinterpret what Dr. Masters said.
Ok good. I just checked out weather.com they have a blogger there already, I wonder if they will get the boot or weather.com will have 2 bloggers.
seed was planted and fertilized
The cap is coming more into play, so storms are less likely to form here, thankfully. Those that do will undoubtedly be strong. Also, the air is much drier than how it was last week (last week, PW was well above 2".. pushing 2.3 and 2.4 inches at times - this week, it is 1.5-1.7", which is much closer to normal)
With how saturated the ground is from last week, it won't take much for flooding. My front yard is STILL water-logged, a week later. Only the higher sections near the house have dried out enough to walk on without traipsing in mud.
How are y'all sitting for rainfall.. much in the way of ground saturation yet? Or are they just forecasting very heavy, concentrated rains?
Stay safe.
Here in Sydney it's going to be a little bit warmer night. Last night it got down to 38.3F but tonight only 45F.
Currently it's 51.4°F
Goodnight all.
Wow thank God, cuz I have no idea what else I could do while here at work. Lol
a lot of yellow today..its seems your area has been prone lately for the lows exiting off into the atlantic..
As long as it stays near S TX, we're good.
The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926
One more note about this hurricane:
The University of Miami, located in Coral Gables, had been founded in 1925 and opened its doors for the first time just days after the hurricane passed. The University's athletic teams were nicknamed the Hurricanes in memory of this catastrophe. The school's mascot is Sebastian, an ibis. The ibis is a small white bird that can be seen around south Florida and especially on the UM campus. An ibis was selected to represent the Hurricanes because of folklore in which it is typically the last bird to leave before a hurricane strikes and the first to return once it's gone.[6]
I saw last night that there was a tropical wave on HPC surface map..now there is a weak surface low trying to form..
Where do you see the low pressure? I just see one attached to a front near the Delmarva peninsula.
Ah... just on schedule... something in the models next week sometime???
WX here in Nassau today is absolutely gorgeous... but HOT!!! Humidity feels like a warm blanket, and it was already almost 90 by 9 a.m. this morning... If I get a chance I'll post some pics later today.
Meanwhile, I reiterate the Doc's closing... peace to all this weekend!
If the ice has broken up as the photo you posted seems to show then it will melt much more quickly as the water will erode the sides of the ice blocks. If there is a strong storm up there then there might not be enough ice left to fill a champagne bucket soon.
Non of this stuff bodes well and its only mid July, 2 more months of melting to go.
Those bears will have along way to swim, a lot of them wont make it.
i am trying to understand what ya are saying....who is the new enemy that is going to unite us????
1. Any idea of how to find out about PDO conditions in the 1950s? Were they similar to now, or closer to what we saw in the 1980s?
2. What, if any, correlation exists between TC formation / landfall in the ATL and the drought conditions in 1934, 1939, 1954 and 1956?
Yeah Pat was in another element this morning. He made it seem there would be no comment section on Doc's blog starting on the 25th of this month.
Nice to think that when you have a temp of 122/F it only feels like 121/F!
don't worry the bears can jump on one of the hundred ships busting up the ice and burning fossil fuels that are there on a daily basis.....we are our own worst enemy...
by the way the passage is now open water
both sides the canada and russian side
The Russian heat wave / drought a couple years ago broke records in the area that had stood for up to 90 years...
Other interesting thing is that there was an economic downturn in the US around the same time in the 1930s... rather ironic in a way.
Looks like its going to be a wet next few days here in Norfolk, Virginia. We are lucky to be one of the few areas in the country that is not in a drought. Hopefully everyone in the midwest will start to see improvement, but with this weather pattern it doesn't look too likely for now. Our prayers go out to all of the farmers out there - we take their work for granted much of the time.
I didn't want to mention that (about the bears going blub, blub, blub). Might upset the kids.
By the way:
Hey kids, you better tell your parents to quit driving their GAS HOGS. And by the way, turn off the lights when you don't need them. Be good little boys and girls or Santa won't come anymore! Of course he won't. There won't be any elves anymore either. Blub, blub, blub.
From WXYZ Detroit
Cthulhu.
(Sorry, couldn't resist)
The blog posts are simple data and cross-linking content isn't difficult these days. XML based RSS and ATOM feeds allow you to publish content where you want it to go and style rules format it. I have the mobile feed of Dr. Masters blog set up in my RSS reader so I know when there's a new post and can read it. Getting the blog entries to show up over at TWC's site shouldn't be even close to a hassle if they have semi-competent web staff about.
(Note: I have no inside information but I do have web design and CMS experience. The above is just my thoughts on the term "cross-linking" based on this context.)
On those North Pole web cam thing.
Its to be hoped that they had the forethought to put floatation buoys under the cameras as they might not be on "Dry Ice" for much longer!
while ya at it also tell all the people studying climate at the north pole to quit flying planes sailing ships there and driving tractors around, i can't belive they made that place a tourist spot they even have tours there....
he from china?????
Goes Satellite
i was close...japan it is..
What they should do is freeze membership on the wunderground for a month or two. Or only allow 50 new meberships a day or something just to see what happens.
Thanks for that info Keep.
Have both sides ever been open this early in recorded history before? Or even one of the channels this early before?
The creator of this creature was an American, H.P. Lovecraft.
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