Historic 2012 U.S. drought continues to expand and intensify
The great U.S. drought of 2012 continues to accelerate, and grew larger and more intense over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, July 19. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought expanded from 61% to 64%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought jumped from 37% to 42%. These are truly historic levels of drought, exceeded only during the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s and a severe drought in the mid-1950s. If we make the reasonable assumption that the current area covered by drought is representative of what the average for the entire month of July will be (based on the latest drought forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center), the July 2012 drought is second only to the great Dust Bowl drought of July 1934 in terms of the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought. The five months with the greatest percent area in moderate or greater drought, since 1895, now look like this:
1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Jul 2012, 64%
3) Dec 1939, 60%
4) Jul 1954, 60%
5) Dec 1956, 58%
If we consider the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by severe or greater drought, July 2012 ranks in 5th place:
1) Jul 1934, 63%
2) Sep 1954, 50%
3) Dec 1956, 43%
4) Aug 1936, 43%
5) Jul 2012, 42%
Figure 1. The twice-monthly U.S. Drought Outlook, updated on Thursday, July 19, predicts that drought will continue through October over most of the U.S., and expand to the north and northeast. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The drought forecast: not encouraging
In their twice-monthly drought outlook, released on Thursday, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center had this to say about the drought: The combination of heat and dryness has severely reduced the quality and quantity of the corn and soybean crop, with 38 percent of the corn and 30 percent of the soybeans rated as poor or very poor as of July 15 by NASS/USDA. Some states, such as Kentucky, Missouri, and Indiana, had over 70 percent of their corn adversely rated. Unfortunately, drought is expected to develop, persist, or intensify across these areas, and temperatures are likely to average above normal. Some widely-scattered relief may come in the form of cold front passages or organized thunderstorm clusters (MCSs), but widespread relief for much of the area is not expected. Unfortunately, the self-perpetuation of regional drought conditions, with very dry soils and very limited evapotranspiration, tends to inhibit widespread development of or weaken existing thunderstorm complexes. It would require a dramatic shift in the weather pattern to provide significant relief to this drought, and most tools and models do not forecast this. Unfortunately, all indicators (short and medium-term, August, and August-October) favor above normal temperatures. With much of the Plains already in drought, above normal temperatures expected into the fall, and a dry short-term and 30-day forecast, the drought should persist, with some possible development in the northern Plains.
One bright spot: drought conditions are expected to improve over the Southwest U.S. over the next few weeks, as the annual summer monsoon peaks and brings heavy rains. The Southeast U.S. has seen some improvement over the past week, due to an upper-level low pressure system that has brought heavy rains. The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S.
Figure 2. The U.S. has seen twelve weather-related disasters costing at least $15 billion since 1980, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Two of the top three most expensive disasters have been droughts. The drought of 2012 could well make it three out of four. "It might be a $50 billion event for the economy as it blends into everything over the next four quarters," said Michael Swanson, agricultural economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, the largest commercial agriculture lender. Only three $50 billion weather disasters have hit the U.S. since 1980.
The Atlantic is quiet
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss. The models are showing formation of an extratropical cyclone along an old frontal boundary over 1,000 miles off the Northeast U.S. coast on Tuesday, and it is possible such a storm could acquire tropical characteristics and get a name. Such a storm would not be a threat to any land areas. There is an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean that is squashing development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa, so it doesn't look too likely that the U.S. will get something it really needs--a big, wet Category 1 hurricane that sloshes ashore over the Gulf Coast, stalling over the Midwest, bringing copious drought-busting rains.
Figure 3. Portlight volunteers unloading supplies at the FBC in Henryville, Indiana on March 10, 2012. Henryville was devastated by an EF-4 tornado on March 2 that killed 11 people along its path.
Helping out with disaster relief
It's been another busy year for natural disasters in the U.S., and the portlight.org disaster-relief charity, founded by members of the wunderground community, has been very active helping out victims of this year's disasters. Portlight responded to the deadly March tornado outbreak in the Midwest, two separate April tornado outbreaks in Texas and Oklahoma, and the June wildfires in Colorado. Paul Timmons of Portlight has put together a year-to-date summary of portlight's efforts in 2012, and has this call for action:
Now we’re in July…things have gotten quiet, but we know they won’t be quiet for long. We’re in the middle of hurricane season and mid-summer is a time of unsettled and dangerous weather that happens when we least expect it. Our work is never really done and new tasks pop up all the time. With your help and the help of our friends like the amazing people at Wunderground.com and our new friends at Team Rubicon, The Mahalia Partnership, and CCDC, we will be ready.
Where do we go from here? That depends on you, our supporters, volunteers and friends. Our purpose hasn’t changed: we will continue providing support, relief and aid for unserved, under-served and forgotten people wherever they may be…
Peace to all this weekend, and I'll be back on Sunday or Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...10N27W AND 10N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N35W TO 6N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 19W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
...still not calling it a T-Wave.
Anyway, I've got to put on dinner for 9 tonight so had better get busy!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1108 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012
DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502 -VAZ025>031-
036>040-042-050>057-501>504-WVZ050>053-055-501>50 6-202315-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.A.0006.120720T1600Z-120721T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORA NGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY -
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE ...ANNAPOLIS...
WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...
WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS. ..
MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...
FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY. ..MARTINSBURG...
CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...
ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
1108 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
MARYLAND...ANNE ARUNDEL...CALVERT...CARROLL...CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALLEGANY...CHARLES...EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY...
FREDERICK MD...HARFORD...HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN
BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE...ST. MARYS
AND WASHINGTON. THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. IN VIRGINIA...
ALBEMARLE...ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...AUGUSTA...
CLARKE...CULPEPER...EASTERN HIGHLAND...FAIRFAX...FREDERICK
VA...GREENE...KING GEORGE...LOUDOUN...MADISON...NELSON...
NORTHERN FAUQUIER...ORANGE...PAGE...PRINCE
WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK...RAPPAHANNOCK...ROCKINGHAM...
SHENANDOAH...SOUTHERN FAUQUIER...SPOTSYLVANIA...STAFFORD...
WARREN AND WESTERN HIGHLAND. IN NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
BERKELEY...EASTERN GRANT...EASTERN MINERAL...EASTERN
PENDLETON...HAMPSHIRE...HARDY...JEFFERSON...MORGAN ...WESTERN
GRANT...WESTERN MINERAL AND WESTERN PENDLETON.
* UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
* EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD CAUSE CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RISE
QUICKLY OUT OF THEIR BANKS AND COULD FLOOD LOW-LYING AND URBAN
AREAS...PARTICULARLY THOSE THAT HAVE HAD RECENT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
&&
$$
[sigh]
12:00 Mainly Sunny 16 51 6 S 45 gust 55 100.0 24
11:00 Partly Cloudy 16 51 6 S 50 100.0 24
10:00 Partly Cloudy 15 53 6 S 48 gust 58 100.1 24
9:00 Partly Cloudy 15 52 5 S 48 gust 58 100.1 24
8:00 Partly Cloudy 15 52 5 S 45 gust 54 100.2 24
7:00 N/A 15 53 5 SSW 53 gust 63 100.3 N/A
6:00 N/A 14 54 5 SSW 45 100.3 N/A
5:00 N/A 15 54 6 SSW 40 100.4 N/A
4:00 N/A 14 55 6 SSW 39 100.4 N/A
3:00 N/A 14 58 6 SSW 38 100.5 N/A
2:00 N/A 9 76 5 SW 5 100.5 N/A
1:00 N/A 3 89 2 NE 6 100.6 N/A
00:00 N/A 3 92 2 ENE 4 100.7 N/A
19 July 2012
23:00 N/A 3 91 2 ENE 9 100.7 N/A
22:00 N/A 4 91 3 ENE 4 100.8 N/A
21:00 N/A 3 95 2 ENE 9 100.8 N/A
20:00 N/A 4 85 2 NE 4 100.9 N/A
19:00 N/A 7 84 4 N 3 100.9 N/A
18:00 N/A 6 83 4 NW 2 101.0 N/A
17:00 N/A 5 86 3 E 5 101.0 N/A
16:00 N/A 5 83 2 ENE 11 101.0 N/A
15:00 N/A 4 84 2 ENE 12 100.9 N/A
14:00 N/A 5 84 3 NE 15 100.9 N/A
13:00 Mainly Sunny 20 42 6 WSW 32 100.6 24
12:00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Looking at the station's data reports we see that the average of 8.5 days of highs above 10C a year from the 1971-2000 base period is not very representative of the present....
Days above 10C at Alert, Nunavut.
2005 - 7
2006 - 11
2007 - 4
2008 - 14
2009 - 20
2010 - 16
2011 - 15
2012 - 7 (so far)
people will find out in a few days....why he did it.
That is just a contender for quote of the day .Too funny!!!Classic
Had only just recovered my composure ...when I saw this one ..Classic
Its funny though he didnt off himself but yet he took lives..I just dont understand why people want to cause harm to others just because they are having their own issues..
I note there doesn't seem to be any wave attached to that large area of convection [trying to figure out if that's just the monsoon trough, which I noted yesterday was wildly contorted] but also that probabilities are up there - for now, anyway.
If nothing else, this should bring down some of the dust in the area.....
My July 20, 2012 Discussion
My July 19, 2012 Discussion
My July 18, 2012 Discussion
In addition to the t-wave emerging from Africa...I think we have something going on the N GOM judging by the latest satellite imagery. Here is a quote from my July 20 discussion on what is causing that N GOM activity:
"P6...Upper vorticity in the southern Gulf of Mexico is weakening....but still extends to an upper vortex at the FL/GA border that has recently drifted to the SC/GA border. T-storm activity has flourished over the MS/LA area...supported by split flow divergence at the boundary between the SC/GA upper vortex and SE US upper anticyclone in paragraph P2. Bermuda-area upper ridge persists east of all this upper vorticity...but is weakening as the sharp E Canada upper trough in paragraph P2 pushes in."
Link
well if ya wearing a bullet proof vest like he was usually means ya don't want to die....
I thought that was BELDAR LOL
You can see the hazy sky at web cam from there.
If you look at MODIS long enough, there are 2 things that can happen: you go nuts or you change your opinion about a bunch of things. Thanks for your comment.
Further north blue-green algae is a problem, the mix of big agriculture & heat cause this to bloom. Killed some dogs in Indiana yesterday. Outbreak in Scotland too.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES /arctic.seaice.color.000.png
NW Passage open in 5 or 6 days?
very interesting.......like virtually all your posts...
Ummmmmmmmmmm............ Never mind
cost prohibitive
The Canadians might have a thing or two to say about that.....
With that nefarious event the Rio Grande joined a growing list of once-mighty rivers that are running dry from overuse: the Colorado River in the U.S., the Yaqui in Mexico, the Indus in Pakistan, the Ganges in Bangladesh, the Yellow and Tarim in China, and the Murray in Australia, along with many other rivers large and small.
Not surprisingly, fisheries in these once-bountiful rivers have crashed. After all, fish do need water.
We’ve tapped underground water sources pretty heavily as well. The water level in the Ogallala Aquifer in the Midwestern U.S. has dropped more than 150 feet in some places, leaving many farmers’ wells bone dry.
As water is sucked out of aquifers, the overlying soil and rock can compact or collapse into the dewatered void, causing tall buildings to teeter in Mexico City, automobiles to tumble into sinkholes in Florida, or swallowing tourists on the fringes of the shriveling Dead Sea in Israel and Jordan.
With so many rivers, lakes and aquifers going dry, we have to ask: Are we running out of water?
also read the new farm bill that was passed....if the drought does not break the farmers the new farm bill will....sad sad sad all the way around..
Who?!?!?!
The image based on data from the Shizuku satellite shows ice melting on Greenland in blue. (Provided by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency)
Ice melts under summer sun near Qaanaaq in northwestern Greenland on July 16, with water flowing from edges of a glacier. (Yumi Nakayama)
A team of researchers also recently visited Greenland to observe the conditions of the ice firsthand.
On July 16, they surveyed an ice sheet in the northwestern region of the land mass, located at an altitude of 1,500 meters. They found the surface of the ice had melted and become "like sherbet" as temperatures reached 2 degrees.
They also observed rainfall of around 10 centimeters over a three-day period.
Teruo Aoki, senior researcher at the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency who took part in the observations for three weeks, expressed his surprise.
"I had not expected rain to fall there," he said. "The melting was greater than expected."
Those strange people that live north of you.
They may say it's really their water.
Although, with recent legal shoutings there, they seem to be somehow immune to the idea that things are getting a little serious in the Climate department.
They might move further north, into the Tropical Tundra, if things work out for them, eh ?
That would work !
This wave also has lots moisture with it as well. This maybe one to watch down the road.
Sure it does....
to Xenophilious Lovegood
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