African tropical wave 99L has potential to develop
The first African tropical wave of 2012 with a potential to develop is Invest 99L, located in the Eastern Atlantic near 9°N 36°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa. Visible satellite loops show a large area of the surrounding atmosphere has a pronounced counter-clockwise spin, though there is no surface circulation. The disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity is pretty sparse, but appears to be slowly increasing. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara lies well to the north of 99L. WInd shear over the disturbance is a light 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is well above the 26.5°C (80°F) threshold typically needed to allow formation of a tropical depression.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.
Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is expected to remain light for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. The disturbance is at 9°N, which is close enough to the Equator that the storm will have some difficultly getting spinning. Most of the models are showing some slow development of 99L, with the storm reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, August 3. NHC gave 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. I expect the storm will have trouble with dry air at times this week as it crosses the Atlantic, but I give 99L a 50% chance of eventually developing into Tropical Storm Ernesto sometime in the next ten days. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday night. The long-range fate of 99L is uncertain, but a trough of low pressure is expected to be present over the Eastern U.S. early next week, which would be capable of turning 99L more to the northwest.
Hot in the Central U.S.
The heat in America's heartland continued on Sunday, with Wichita, KS hitting 111°F, just 3° short of their all-time hottest temperature of 114° set on 8/12/1936. Other notable highs on Sunday:
111° Coffeyville, KS
111° Winfield, KS
110° Chanute, KS
110° Parsons, KS
109° Joplin, MO (all-time record is 115° on July 14, 1954)
The low temperature in Tulsa, Oklahoma this Monday morning dropped to only 88°F. This is the all-time warmest low temperature in the city since record keeping began in 1905. The previous record warmest minimum temperature was 87°F set on August 2, 2011 and July 16, 1980. The high in Tulsa Monday - Wednesday is expected to reach 110° - 111°, close to the city's all-time hottest temperature of 115° set on August 10, 1936.
Jeff Masters
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Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
21:00 PM JST July 31 2012
=============================================
SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan
At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Damrey (975 hPa) located at 28.9N 137.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 15 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.5
Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 30.7N 129.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - southwest city of Makurazaki
48 HRS: 33.3N 124.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Yellow Sea
72 HRS: 38.0N 120.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Bohai Sea
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
21:00 PM JST July 31 2012
=============================================
SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon South Of Okinawa
At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Saola (970 hPa) located at 21.6N 123.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.5
Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
400 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 23.2N 123.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - southwest of Ishigaki Island
48 HRS: 25.4N 122.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - East China Sea
72 HRS: 28.2N 119.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Overland China
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
735 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
CENTRAL WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
* UNTIL 815 AM CDT
* AT 730 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES WEST OF DE FUNIAK SPRINGS TO 6 MILES NORTH OF
VERNON...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...PLEASANT RIDGE...WAUSAU...RED BAY...LIVE
OAK...HOLMES VALLEY...NEW HOPE...FREEPORT...BRUCE...EBRO AND
CRYSTAL LAKE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
LAT...LON 3078 8561 3044 8550 3043 8617 3045 8617
3047 8623 3043 8625 3046 8624 3048 8627
3079 8634
TIME...MOT...LOC 1234Z 347DEG 21KT 3070 8621 3069 8569
No way, I'm not convinced it will every make it out of the Carib. May pretty much stay on a western path the whole way.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
852 AM AST TUE JUL 31 2012
PRC015-025-035-041-057-069-077-085-095-103-109-12 3-129-151-311545-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0289.120731T1252Z-120731T1545Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ARROYO PR-CAGUAS PR-CAYEY PR-CIDRA PR-GUAYAMA PR-NAGUABO PR-JUNCOS
PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-MAUNABO PR-PATILLAS PR-SALINAS PR-SAN LORENZO
PR-YABUCOA PR-HUMACAO PR-
852 AM AST TUE JUL 31 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...
IN PUERTO RICO
ARROYO...CAGUAS...CAYEY...CIDRA...GUAYAMA...NAGUAB O...JUNCOS...
LAS PIEDRAS...MAUNABO...PATILLAS...SALINAS...SAN LORENZO...
YABUCOA AND HUMACAO
* UNTIL 1145 AM AST
* AT 848 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA AND MORE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 1807 6621 1819 6615 1813 6577 1811 6577
1797 6591 1796 6597 1797 6602 1795 6604
1796 6608 1793 6614
$$
SNELL
Looks that way but we really have to watch and see if it can intesify some before reaching the islands because it does then 99L would turn more WNW. Basically between now and Friday is going to be key on where 99L ends up as for right now it looks like Central America.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
754 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN CRENSHAW COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 900 AM CDT
* AT 749 AM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH WERE LOCATED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREENVILLE TO 16 MILES NORTH OF LUVERNE...AND
MOVING SOUTH AT 45 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUTLEDGE... PETREY... LUVERNE...
I65 AND AL 185... I65 AND AL 10... GREENVILLE...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 126 AND 139.
LAT...LON 3183 8618 3181 8620 3179 8618 3165 8620
3166 8664 3197 8672 3197 8641 3202 8641
3204 8630 3197 8629 3197 8619 3196 8618
3190 8617
TIME...MOT...LOC 1254Z 344DEG 39KT 3178 8662 3188 8635
Latest 13z run of the MOD has shifted east towards the Alabama coast on day thirteen. Very similar to an Ivan type track. Weak minimal TS trough the eastern and central Caribbean, and finally exploding into a strong hurricane just west of Jamaica. (flag on)
the models are trending more north..
Viewing: 1801 - 1820
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