Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting MississippiWx:
I see people are already hyping this season as one of the fastest starts ever. If you take away the 3 subtropical/hybrid developments, we are back down to three storms and we would be starting the peak of hurricane season like a typical El Nino year. El Nino seasons tend to have fast starts, and shut down at the end of September onward. Tropically speaking, this has not been a very active season. We are heating up, yes, but it's right on schedule.

Numbers are numbers, I guess, but I beg you to not begin comparing this year to 2005 or 2010 just because of number of names.

It was Weather Channel that brought it up. Hadn't really thought of it until the NHC brought it up in a Florence discussion. Besides, CSU and TSR came out with their August reports and are saying a reasonable 14 named. I don't think anymore that this season is going to be anywhere near as inactive as 2009 and 2006. August predictions are usually pretty accurate.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Still trying to interpret that comment, but I think MSWX was talking about YOU... not the TWC

No, I was talking about TWC. Lol.

Euro 120hrs mysteriously weakens pouch# 13

Quoting MississippiWx:


No, I was talking about TWC. Lol.

Ok. LOL

523.

You really could make the argument that Chris had subtropical origins as well. That would put us with 4 system that have not origniated from the deep tropics and only two that have. With one becoming a hurricane. That's a pretty typical Nino season right there.

During the mid to late August period, the MJO looks favorable for some considerable MDR activity along with possible sleeper waves like 92L. This should produce around 3 systems from this pattern, possibly more if we have other places of origin. Things become very uncertain in the early September period as some long range models are showing a pretty good halt in activity. We'll see what happens with that as we get deeper into the month.

All in all, some serious analysis will be conducted at the end of this season to really see if the first four systems should be counted as true tropical development in the Atlantic. Numbers should coincide with a slightly above average season.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


It was Weather Channel that brought it up. Hadn't really thought of it until the NHC brought it up in a Florence discussion. Besides, CSU and TSR came out with their August reports and are saying a reasonable 14 named. I don't think anymore that this season is going to be anywhere near as inactive as 2009 and 2006. August predictions are usually pretty accurate.

Maybe. With the bonus three that we had at the beginning, it's a reasonable prediction to say we will have 14. If that's the case, subtracting 3 would still put us right at normal. You are correct that this is no 2009 or 2006, so far. My point was that I didn't want people to start comparing this season with 2010 or 2005 just because of numbers.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Still trying to interpret that comment, but I think MSWX was talking about YOU... not the TWC

Actually I have been downcasting this season because of El-Nino coming until 2 weeks ago when things looked like they were about to go off. Again he was talking about TWC. If you watch them sometimes you will see what we are talking about. I think they are worse that JFV sometimes.

Quoting Kumo:


Perhaps it might be a good time for state governments to consider requiring a license to chase storms. I remember seeing that a lot of the pros were having difficulty getting to specific storms because of increased traffic this past spring during one of the big outbreaks out in OK and KS. One mesocyclone should never have dozens of chasers on it and especially not those silly tornado tour vans.

Thats what we need more government to tell us what to do. Honestly i'm not trying to be rude but do we really need a nanny state to tell us every move to make? Let the kid go experience life its much better than video games

Even though 92L's convection isn't strong, it is acquiring the "look".

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
523.

You really could make the argument that Chris had subtropical origins as well. That would put us with 4 system that have not origniated from the deep tropics and only two that have. With one becoming a hurricane. That's a pretty typical Nino season right there.

During the mid to late August period, the MJO looks favorable for some considerable MDR activity along with possible sleeper waves like 92L. This should produce around 3 systems from this pattern, possibly more if we have other places of origin. Things become very uncertain in the early September period as some long range models are showing a pretty good halt in activity. We'll see what happens with that as we get deeper into the month.

All in all, some serious analysis will be conducted at the end of this season to really see if the first four systems should be counted as true tropical development in the Atlantic. Numbers should coincide with a slightly above average season.

I still am sticking with what I've said since my first pre-season guess in January: 14-6-3

Quoting CybrTeddy:


It was Weather Channel that brought it up. Hadn't really thought of it until the NHC brought it up in a Florence discussion. Besides, CSU and TSR came out with their August reports and are saying a reasonable 14 named. I don't think anymore that this season is going to be anywhere near as inactive as 2009 and 2006. August predictions are usually pretty accurate.

Monthly numbers:
May
----
Alberto
Beryl

June
-------
Chris
Debby

July
-------

August
------------
Ernesto
Florence


Predictions:
____________
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce

September
--------------
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Otto

October
------------
Patty

November
--------------

Ernesto has made it to the coast. Now lets see if it follows forecast track and stays close to the coast or moves straight west. Will make big differnce on intensity.

FWIW, if you took out the non-tropical developing storms out of 2011 you'd get 13-7-4 instead of 19-7-4.

Last year had loads of non-tropical development, by this time we weren't even on our first hurricane where as this year we are on our second and a Hurricane landfall. Beryl was pretty dang close to hurricane status when it hit Florida too, so they're no where near as weak and meager as they where last year.

Quoting MississippiWx:
I see people are already hyping this season as one of the fastest starts ever. If you take away the 3 subtropical/hybrid developments, we are back down to three storms and we would be starting the peak of hurricane season like a typical El Nino year. El Nino seasons tend to have fast starts, and shut down at the end of September onward. Tropically speaking, this has not been a very active season. We are heating up, yes, but it's right on schedule.

Numbers are numbers, I guess, but I beg you to not begin comparing this year to 2005 or 2010 just because of number of names.

But we could still have a cat3 or 4 landing on the gulf coast this year.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


I still am sticking with what I've said since my first pre-season guess in January: 14-6-3

You could be right on target.

Quoting MississippiWx:
I see people are already hyping this season as one of the fastest starts ever. If you take away the 3 subtropical/hybrid developments, we are back down to three storms and we would be starting the peak of hurricane season like a typical El Nino year. El Nino seasons tend to have fast starts, and shut down at the end of September onward. Tropically speaking, this has not been a very active season. We are heating up, yes, but it's right on schedule.

Numbers are numbers, I guess, but I beg you to not begin comparing this year to 2005 or 2010 just because of number of names.

what el nino? we keep switching from 0.4 to 0.6C we are a borderline warm neutral weak el nino. it wont be a weak el nino till late september early october so this season should still be above average. the atmosphere now represents neutral

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Ernesto

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
523.

You really could make the argument that Chris had subtropical origins as well. That would put us with 4 system that have not origniated from the deep tropics and only two that have. With one becoming a hurricane. That's a pretty typical Nino season right there.

During the mid to late August period, the MJO looks favorable for some considerable MDR activity along with possible sleeper waves like 92L. This should produce around 3 systems from this pattern, possibly more if we have other places of origin. Things become very uncertain in the early September period as some long range models are showing a pretty good halt in activity. We'll see what happens with that as we get deeper into the month.

All in all, some serious analysis will be conducted at the end of this season to really see if the first four systems should be counted as true tropical development in the Atlantic. Numbers should coincide with a slightly above average season.

It does raise the question with the recent warming that far in the North Atlantic whether that area should now be considered tropical? Or at least wait to see in the next couple of years if the frequency of storms goes up in that area.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, if you took out the true tropical develops out of 2011 you'd get 13-7-4 instead of 19-7-4.

Last year had loads of non-tropical development, by this time we weren't even on our first hurricane where as this year we are on our second and a Hurricane landfall. Beryl was pretty dang close to hurricane status when it hit Florida too, so they're no where near as weak and meager as they where last year.

True.

2011 was a crappy year. For someone who does not like the frontal systems in the Subtropical Atlantic, I got pretty irritated. Lol.

Ernesto damage.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, if you took out the true tropical develops out of 2011 you'd get 13-7-4 instead of 19-7-4.

Last year had loads of non-tropical development, by this time we weren't even on our first hurricane where as this year we are on our second and a Hurricane landfall. Beryl was pretty dang close to hurricane status when it hit Florida too, so they're no where near as weak and meager as they where last year.

It's pretty safe to say, that the EPAC took all of our BIG storms last season...
Almost all of the EPAC storms were hurricanes in 2011

Quoting floridaboy14:

what el nino? we keep switching from 0.4 to 0.6C we are a borderline warm neutral weak el nino. it wont be a weak el nino till late september early october so this season should still be above average. the atmosphere now represents neutral

The atmosphere has more El Nino characteristics than neutral when it comes to pattern type and circulations throughout the globe. It's coming, believe me.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


I still am sticking with what I've said since my first pre-season guess in January: 14-6-3

I said 14-7-4

Climate Change people...Climate Change.

Quoting Kumo:


Perhaps it might be a good time for state governments to consider requiring a license to chase storms. I remember seeing that a lot of the pros were having difficulty getting to specific storms because of increased traffic this past spring during one of the big outbreaks out in OK and KS. One mesocyclone should never have dozens of chasers on it and especially not those silly tornado tour vans.

Jeez, why not. The .gov seems to tax everything else. I guess freedom shouldn't include getting in your car and following a storms around. If you want to do that, pay the man.

Wow, Ernesto still looks really good.... on satellite anyway. Looks like he's finally realised he needs to head back N/W if he wants to bathe in those warm gulf waters at all. Looks like the centre is just about to hit the water again. Obviously unless he manages to swing up quite a bit, isn't going to have much time to regenerate though. He's still looking handsome on satellite though!


WxGeekVA, more power to you! I spent a year in Colorado and that was enough for me...decided Californian earthquakes were more bearable than being near tornadoes and severe thunderstorms! I love thunderstorms, just not those severe ones!I prefer North Wales, just rains a lot...but no earthquakes, no tornadoes, no hurricanes LOL

Quoting GTcooliebai:
It does raise the question with the recent warming that far in the North Atlantic whether that area should now be considered tropical? Or at least wait to see in the next couple of years if the frequency of storms goes up in that area.

..there WAS an article..gee i cant remember where i found it..but it said..the tropical zone WOULD be moving further northward,think i posted that here last year

144hrs Euro.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

It's pretty safe to say, that the EPAC took all of our BIG storms last season...
Almost all of the EPAC storms were hurricanes in 2011

2010 had some epic storms on our side though. Alex, Danielle, Earl, Igor, Julia, Karl, Tomas to name a few.

18:15 UTC Rainbow

Quoting StormTracker2K:
144hrs Euro.

This run makes more sense.. Instead of going north into a ridge, it steers south of the ridge.

Quoting Patrap:

This might be really cool. If the center rides the coast, will it strengthen ? Will it still be able to feed on the warm water even tho half the circulation is on land.?

Quoting sar2401:

(sigh) So, that explains any errors in all our guestimates, lol. Blame it all on HAARP & chemtrails, right?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v= jcmMtUb0mh8&NR=1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi8F77sEvUg&lr=1&f eature=mhum

Quoting MississippiWx:


The atmosphere has more El Nino characteristics than neutral when it comes to pattern type and circulations throughout the globe. It's coming, believe me.

Just ask the people across the upper Mid West down to the TN Valley as lows could dip into the 50's and some upper 40's in the Applachian MTNS come this weekend.

Quoting kshipre1:
just wondering, not to focus on Florida specifically, but does anyone know historically if Florida has more direct tropical storm and/or hurricane impacts during an el nino, enso or la nina season?

Couldn't find specifics on Florida landfalling data with respect to the ENSO cycle, but this is a good paper explaining the effects on U.S. landfalling storms (although 14 years old).

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I said 14-7-4

I went 14/8/3 ..:)

12Z gem is again predicting a low forming over the gulf and going north to fl panhandle.

If there's anything to look at past 250+ hours in the GFS is the fact that the atmosphere will be ripe for Cape Verde hurricanes as the upward MJO moves through our basin. Could honestly see us getting a good 3 Cape Verde tropical storms or hurricanes the next 3 weeks. Could always see a home grown development too.

168hrs Euro.

nice new wave by pr today maybe this is what the cmc was showing as a fla system on the 12th does it have a chance to become 93L as it also moves wnw and could bring xtra rain to fl by the weekends tia

12z Euro recurves the African development as well.

thanks!

looks like a recurve here on the Euro.

Quoting Grothar:


Since you posed that as a question, I hope you don't mind if I try and answer that.

Yes, we should watch every long range prediction. While many of us would like to think they are placed here for our entertainment or for one's self-aggrandisement to see how well one can forecast a storm, that is not the case. We all know that long range and even short range models change.

But we must not forget that these forecasts are made for the maritime interests in all basins and also, more importantly for the military. We have vast movements of our navy in almost all ocean basins. While they do have their own systems, they are interfaced with others. To only concentrate on what is near us would indicate that we have no interest beyond what affects us. The picture is much larger than that. I have more interest in what "might" be than what is already pretty much a situation under control. Vast planning of flights and fleets must know weeks ahead of what the conditions "might" be.

The commerical ship fleet as well. They watch how storms move because it could impact a ship movement from Northwest Europe to the US. Or something like that.

Hispaniola is getting pounded..

Extremely impressive wave about to come off the african Coast looks like the EURO/GFS is going to be correct , very likely it will be a TD after it comes off land

ECMWF deepens Ernesto to 990mb even though it hugs the coast.

The waves..

New update for 92L. Classic signature for developing tropical cyclone.