Ernesto hits the Yucatan with 85 mph winds
Ernesto is tropical storm again, after making landfall Tuesday night at 11 pm EDT just north of the Belize/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. We have few good weather observations near the landfall location, though an automated weather station on Banco Chinchorro Island just off the coast of Mexico reported a minimum pressure of 979.4 mb. A personal weather station at the Margarita del Sol Costa Maya Resort recorded sustained winds of 42 mph, gusting to 49 mph, and a pressure of 988 mb in the west eyewall of Ernesto before the station failed. No other weather stations were in the eyewall, and we did not have a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm at landfall to measure the winds, due to technical issues. Belize radar shows that Ernesto's eyewall has collapsed, but the storm has remained well-organized during its passage over the Yucatan Peninsula. Infrared satellite loops show that Ernesto's heavy thunderstorms are mainly affecting Mexico.
Figure 1. Hurricane Ernesto at 10:45 pm EDT August 7, shortly before landfall. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Storm Ernesto, taken at 12:15 pm EDT August 7, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Forecast for Ernesto
Both radar and satellite loops show that Ernesto had a south of due west (260°) motion this morning, and it is no longer clear if the storm will re-emerge over the ocean on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Even if Ernesto does move out over water again, it will be very close to the coast, limiting intensification potential. The official NHC forecast still calls for Ernesto to attain Category 1 hurricane strength over the Bay of Campeche. Ernesto's main threat will be heavy rainfall threat in the mountainous regions along its path through Mexico.
92L
A tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Invest 92L) is disorganized, with satellite loops showing limited heavy thunderstorm activity and a modest amount of spin at mid-levels of the atmosphere. A large amount of dry air to the west and north of 92L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. None of the reliable computer models develop 92L. The GFS model predicts 92L will reach the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, but the other major models show a much slower motion with no threat to the islands for at least six days. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 30% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Friday morning.
A tropical wave predicted to move off the coast of Africa on Thursday night is predicted to develop by both the GFS and ECMWF models.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I meant the wave behind it. 92L is already out at sea, trekking along the Atlantic.
the wave behind 92L is still over Africa, lets not get ahead of ourselves
because 92L has gotten much better organized over the last 24 hours and is closer to land than the wave over Africa
92L is up too %50 thats why
First go to your handle at top of page in the gray area and mouse over it..scroll down to "my blog"..click..on the right hand side you will see several editing options..choose the "Edit Ignore List" then add the handle of the person you want to ignore..update the page with the button there and walla..
(Edit..I see you already got it..cool.. :)
its gonna be in the ocean in the next 18 hours, and the GFS shows it pretty much immediately being classified...
JLRP (Or someone like that) said we'll have the new wave out pretty soon, and I said that's about 12-20 hours away from happenin.
We can always get ahead of ourselves btw.
drop a 500LBS cow on the 18z gfs
Eh, 12 hours ago it was pretty damn disorganized though.
50 % or not, the ships now shows it staying at 40 MPH and before the SHIPS said it would become a hurricane, concern is decreasing, not increasing...
Still has land to cover and the circulation isn't below the convection it's a little to the east border of it.
Ah, wait it was me, you misread me.
I said: Africa is about to give us another one, I didn't specify when... XD
The 18Z GFS is notoriously unreliable... If its still gone on the 12Z, then we can start talking about non-development. Otherwise, as Taz said, drop a cow on it.
but again, 92L is also could be classified and it is the first one in the pipeline
besides, there are enough people here I think we can focus on more than 1 system right? lol
Can't people just scroll by the post? These trolls always make more accounts, I can't be arsed enough to ignore them all the time.
And 92L will affect shipping and Naval lanes as well..
Just adding to why the attention is being given to it.. :)
CMC 90hrs....
CMC 114hrs.... oh... what the!!!!
Still concerned with the forecast track/intensity models for 92L.
Some drier air to it's west, but the possibility of a WSW track would lead to faster strengthening.
The African Wave will likely become Gordon before Invest 92L
How do you keep getting off my ignore list?
many of the models say 92L will affect land of some kind too
Whut? it was you in 1408 that said.
"92L looks happier than yesterday and Africa is about to give us a new one."
I was saying that the new one will be out in the ocean in about 12-20 hours.
Sigh...
It deserves the attention.
An is there any reason to believe that 92L will be a fish storm?
It' (the African wave) is probably going to develop quick, but not that quick. It still has to go through the transition from land to sea and sustain itself for a day.
not talking about which will be classified first, I am talking about which is further west
that being said, the wave over Africa could impact the Cape Verde Islands too
Wrong about what?
I edited 1466, give it a look.
Those darn canadians...
Is this that upper level low thats in the caribbean right now or somethin?
And people also seem to be overestimating Invest 92L its not going to develop for at least 36 hours not overnight tonight
He keeps making new handles. Pity he doesn't know where the handle to the door out of this blog is.
Classic
I was wrong once... didn't really care for it.
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