92L near tropical depression status; Ernesto drenching Mexico
A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 92L) has become well-organized, with satellite loops showing that a well-defined surface circulation formed around 9 am EDT. So far, 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity is limited, due to a large amount of dry air to the west and north that can be seen on water vapor satellite loops. However, heavy thunderstorms have recently increased near the new circulation center, and if current trends continue, 92L will likely be named Tropical Depression Seven later today. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, and the SHIPS model predicts that shear will remain light until Saturday morning, when the storm will encounter higher shear from upper-level westerly winds associated with a trough of low pressure. Of the six major computer models used operationally by NHC, only the NOGAPS model develops 92L, and not until Tuesday. The NOGAPS model did the best job of forecasting the genesis of Ernesto, though. There are some major timing differences between the models on how fast 92L will move. The GFS model predicts 92L will reach the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, the ECMWF model has this happening on Sunday, and the NOGAPS model brings 92L though the northern Lesser Antilles on Monday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 70% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Saturday morning. Residents of the Lesser Antilles should anticipate the possibility of another Ernesto-like situation, with tropical storm conditions affecting the islands Saturday through Monday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.
Ernesto
Tropical Storm Ernesto is performing a tightrope act along the extreme southern edge of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, as the storm heads westwards towards its eventual doom over the mountains of Mexico. Ernesto made landfall Tuesday night at 11 pm EDT just north of the Belize/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, weakened to a tropical storm with 50 mph winds while passing over the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, but had enough time over water this morning to regenerate to a 70 mph tropical storm. Ernesto has a few more hours today when its center will be over water, and the storm's heavy rains of up to ten inches will cause flash flooding in Mexico's Veracruz state. So far, damage from Ernesto has been modest, with no deaths or injuries reported.
Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Storm Ernesto, taken at 1 pm EDT August 8, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.
I'll have a new post this afternoon to talk about July 2012--the warmest month in U.S. history.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yeah 92L does seem to have a decent surface circulation, but convection does need some work - its barely a depression so that's what you would expect, huh. Nice to meet you too, where are you going to college? :)
If he heads almost due south, through that skinny section of Mexico, he might. On the track shown, he has some 7,000 foot mountains to deal with. If he was a stronger storm, maybe, but I dont think he can make the trip over those mountains intact.
I think it was Jason who was trashing the blog last night but never got banned.
Old satellite-photo animation.
According to the 12pmGMT ATCF, Ernesto made landfall 3hours ago
I would tend to agree. But I think 92L may be a different than Ernesto because he is forming a little farther north.
Damaging wind probability:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NY/PA SWWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH INTO NRN LA AND NERN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN STATES AS A STRONG UPPER
LOW ENTERING NERN MN DIGS SSEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY
BEFORE REACHING SRN LAKES MI LATE TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...WITH THE PRIMARY ONE
MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY ATTM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME
BEFORE APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. IN THE WEST...AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WHILE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE NRN PACIFIC COAST MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NW.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN ME SWWD ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE LOWER MO VALLEY. SEVERAL LOW
CENTERS...EVIDENT ALONG THE FRONT OVER ERN KS AND ERN MO...ARE
EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING LOW TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER
OH VALLEY AND MOVE TOWARD NWRN OH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP SWD AND EXTEND
FROM NRN INDIANA SWWD ACROSS SRN IL..AR AND NRN TX BY THIS
EVENING...REACHING A NWRN OH/WRN KY/SERN AR/CENTRAL TX LINE LATE
TONIGHT.
...OH VALLEY INTO PA/NY...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS CONTINUING FROM INDIANA INTO OH THIS MORNING
WITHIN A WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDDLE
MS VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EWD/ENEWD TODAY. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN CLOUDS
FROM ERN OH INTO PA AND NY WHICH WILL ALLOW DIURNAL HEATING AND AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1000-2000 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OH CONVECTION...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST IN PARTS OF PA AND NY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
TERRAIN FORCING AND A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CIN. 25-35 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND SHORT LINEAR SEGMENTS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL INTO THE EVENING.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR INDICATES A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM EXTREME SRN IL ENEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER INTO SRN OH. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE WRN PORTION
POSSIBLY LIFTING NWD OVER SRN IL AND SRN INDIANA. THIS EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
AS THE LEADING EDGE OF DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW INTERACTS WITH THE
BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT OVER IL AND INDIANA. INCREASING DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING
SHORT LINE SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF INDIANA AND OH...AND
POSSIBLY REACHING WRN PA BEFORE WEAKENING.
Hi new bloggers!
The difference between Ernesto and 92L is that Ernesto always had the convection but lacked a strong inner core...while 92L seems to be just the opposite.
I am more leery of storms with a stronger inner core because they can easily bomb out when they reach ideal conditions...versus taking longer to do so...like Ernesto.
Good morning Aussie,h ow are you feeling now?
That I can agree with.
This is the 12z OFPI track they were going to use.
Thank You...
I think TS/Hurricanes are fascinating to track, and most are not deadly and destructive. Just inconvenient.
On the other hand, Katrina was horrible!! I have never seen anything like it.
WV LOOP
92L is not going to have as favorable environment as Ernesto, at least according to all the models that I've looked at, and it's not a guarantee that it'll get to TS status.
In pain like always. Going to bed soon since it is 01:05 Friday Morning
12Z hasn't even ran yet. By the way these storms here yesterday were intense and the set up is the same so you guys on the gulf coast can dry out while the convection focuses on E C FL today.
Far from it... no convection what so ever where the Center is, also at the 850mb it has two vortices, one near 15N and one embedded in the heaviest convection further south.
To get the record straight, there is no TD7.
Well you get some good deserve rest and i really hope you feel much better soon.
NRL never posted a tropical depression, and they are never this late unless they have to contact governemnts to issues watches/warnings.
There is no tropical depression as of 11am.
I think it was blob last evening. A little sheared maybe, but still a blob.
Rainbow Loop
92L is something to watch, though. You have to be careful with storms like this. He has a decent core and may stay weak the whole way...but he is further north and any chance of ideal conditions could allow him to develop - this time closer to the US than Ernesto.
And that, folks, is why I usually wait. No official TD 7... yet.
Correct... not until the NHC designates it, they are the only official designator of systems in the ATL/EPAC and CPAC. Everything else is just mute to me.
I'm not surprised I'm also updateding my numbers
What is that blob at 60, 25. Is that ex-Florence?? HMMM
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