Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting gordydunnot:
I have one pressing question to ask after reading tonight blog Dudes. Is like Ernie going to make some bodacious or gnarly waves for the surfing Dudes of California man.

Don't look that way... yet!

Quoting Stormman2012:
if tropical d 6 go to the north it get block and go back to the west

WOW!!!! That not good

I'd say TD7 will continue on NHC's forcast track with a tad bit N at end of run

Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

nah its jason look at comment #424

If you think that post is from a troll, why do you fall for the tactic and respond to it?

What part of "IGNORE" don't you understand.
It becomes very very boring.

aspectre: So is the British usage&attitude (and the subsequent US attitude toward the usage of 'guy') derived from GuyFawkes?
407 mitthbevnuruodo: TBH I have no idea where it was derived from...and I doubt anyone who uses it would actually know either. But, it could just be revolutionary. After all, at the base, in their eyes we were just upstarts trying to break away from the crown! So I reckon, it could have come down from independance itself...the dodgy Yanks breaking away from British rule!

The other meaning of 'Yank' to British men is comparable to the other meaning of 'Jill' to American women.

Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
I personally believe TD 7 will be Gordon and 93L will be Helene

I concur

Quoting pottery:

If you think that post is from a troll, why do you fall for the tactic and respond to it?

What part of "IGNORE" don't you understand.
It becomes very very boring.

jason is back really under what name I don't even think its two days yet since he got ban again

Hey all, I am usually a lurker but I haven't checked in all week, I see we have td 7 and 93L but what is all of that convection between cuba and haiti? is that what is left of 92L?

Just interesting if you look at the NHC black/white IR in motion, I think you can see what's left of poor Flo heading SW towards Puerto Rico at 21N 60W right where the purple dot on the TC probability map is. Flo got squashed between two ULL as seen on same water vapor loop.

Oh is whats between cuba & haiti left over from flo?

TD7 about to resume WSW according to the latest steering!

Quoting Coastalgramps:
is this the jason guy you keep talking about?

Gramps, it's past your bedtime.

I think this will be a close call between TD7 and 93L on who will take names

but I think TD7 will gain convection by morning and become TS Gordon at 8am with TS watches for the windwards and 93L will become TD 8 either at 11pm 2am or 5am either way I do think 93L will be named at 8am or 11am tomorrow with TS watches for the CV Islands

Quoting gordydunnot:
Just interesting if you look at the NHC black/white IR in motion, I think you can see what's left of poor Flo heading SW towards Puerto Rico at 21N 60W right where the purple dot on the TC probability map is. Flo got squashed between two ULL as seen on same water vapor loop.

Poor Flo she didnt make it.

Don't want to be a party pooper but 93L is already at a very high latitude and moving WNW. IF it develops quickly then it will go out to sea well before 60W. We have seen time and again, with very few exceptions.

Anything that exits Africa above 15N has a very hard time getting all way to the Islands!

Quoting boating79:
Hello everyone new to this blog so take it easy on me lol.... Clearwater FL here...

Welcome

Ernesto - Three Deaths Reported.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/10/us-stor m-ernesto-idUSBRE8730B820120810

Pretty good agreement on 93L becoming a hurricane in 84-96 hours.

TD7 is currently taking a jog south of west.

Quoting Coastalgramps:
is this the jason guy you keep talking about?

LOL!!! XD

Quoting pottery:
TD7 is currently taking a jog south of west.

As expected according to the 00Z steering

Quoting Coastalgramps:
is this the jason guy you keep talking about?

Think he may be undergoing Fujiwhara

Quoting Coastalgramps:


just asking. He is referred to a lot and all i did was google jason+weatherunderground and this was the picture that came up

lol thats what came up on google well hes proably happy now to know hes on google

Quoting pottery:
TD7 is currently taking a jog south of west.

seems so and if that is more models will go Caribbean

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Pretty good agreement on 93L becoming a hurricane in 84-96 hours.

If it develops in to a hurricane before 45W then say bye-bye - FISH!

Quoting Chiggy:


As expected according to the 00Z steering

Yeah, I saw that.
I don't like it much....

Quoting SSideBrac:


Think he may be undergoing Fujiwhara

Sorry :-)

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Pretty good agreement on 93L becoming a hurricane in 84-96 hours.

And a tropical storm in 12, might run race TD 7 to it.

Quoting prweatherwatcher:



Poor Flo she didnt make it.

Some here anthropomorphize these cyclones too much. Don't worry about poor Flo. She's been caught in the strong high and is going to be slingshot into Great Britian, where she'll love the mushy peas....... if I know her.

Quoting pottery:
TD7 is currently taking a jog south of west.

West and it looks bad.

07L looks extremely disorganized.

Quoting Gearsts:
West and it looks bad.

Not very pretty, is it?
The dry air north and N/W is taking it's toll.
More moisture to the S/W if it can make it.

What is really interesting is if you put any of the NHC Wide Atlantic Satellite views in motion it is apparent how turbulent the upper atmosphere is in the Atlantic, hard to get something in the high strength category going with all those cross currents IMO. Tutt, troughs and ULL's are large and in charge in the Western Atlantic, same as it's been the last few seasons. Having said this standby for all hell to break out.

Quoting SSideBrac:

Sorry :-)

Fujuwharic motion is not a taboo. It happens. Rarely, but interesting when it does. If you see an instance of Fuju, post it, otherwise no big deal, especially in this year of dueling centers.

I realized it was active, but not this active.



First time I've looked at the map. :p

Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalDepressionSeven for 10August12amGMT:
MinimumPressure decreased from 1010millibars to 1009millibars
MaxSusWinds held at 30knots(35mph)56km/h
Vector changed from 270.1*West@13.4mph(21.6km/h) to 270.2*West@19mph(30.6km/h)

POS-Trinidad :: BGI-Barbados

The easternmost dot on the kinked line is where 92L became a LOw again
The westernmost dot on the kinked line is where 92L became AL07
The easternmost dot on the longest line is TD.7's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TD.7's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29 kilometres) to a coastline
9August12pmGMT: AL07 had been headed for passage over SangreGrande (rightPOSdumbbell)
9August6pmGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage over GrantleyAdamsInternationalAirport,Barbados
10August12amGMT: TD.7 was heading for passage over Bathsheba in ~2days3hours from now (when this comment was posted)

Copy&paste pos-10.595n61.023w, bgi-13.09n59.457w, 12.1n31.2w-12.7n32.5w- 13.3n33.9w- 13.9n35.4w- 14.1n37.0w- 14.1n38.5w- 13.9n40.0w- 13.7n41.7w, 13.7n41.7w-13.7n42.9w, 13.7n42.9w-13.7n44.6w, 13.7n42.9w-13.198n59.488w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison

God, why is there SO MUCH DRY AIR EVERYTIMES IN THE CATL! That's make me angry!

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
07L looks extremely disorganized.

D-min with a newly developed system that was already struggling with dry air over 26C SST. Could have seen that one coming from across the globe. ;-)

07L/TD/XX/CX
MARK
13.28N/44.44W

Quoting MississippiWx:
Shear forecast from SHIPS for TD7. Gets a little rough in about 4 days, but then dies off again. This can change, as we saw with Ernesto. Depends on placement of the TUTT.

SHEAR (KT) 1 5 8 9 6 12 18 20 20 26 20 19 14

I saw the same thing looking at 200 and 500mb for

same time 7 gets into C. Carib... I think blog will implode if we get Ernie Redoux..lol

Quoting MississippiWx:


D-min with a newly developed system that was already struggling with dry air over 26C SST. Could have seen that one coming from across the globe. ;-)

Shhh. It's not that easy for some people. ;)

Quoting MississippiWx:


D-min with a

newly developed system that was already struggling with dry air over 26C SST. Could have seen that one coming from across the globe. ;-)

NO WAY!!!

93L is liking the water.



I wonder what % we will have at 2am...

Quoting JLPR2:
93L is liking the water.



I wonder what % we will have at 2am...

20000000%

Quoting JLPR2:
93L is liking the water.



I wonder what % we will have at 2am...

Did not realize 93L had a twin. What a strange year.

It's entirely possible that 93L gets named around the same time that TD7 does. 93L is one of those fast developers...