Tropical Depression Seven forms
Tropical Depression Seven is here. Looking remarkably like the tropical depression that became Tropical Storm Ernesto on August 1, TD 7 has a limited region of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. A large amount of dry air to the west and north is visible on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is interfering with TD 7's heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, which is quite favorable for intensification. Ocean temperatures are 26°C, which is a bit on the cool side, though. Winds at the Middle Atlantic buoy 41041 were 20 mph at 5 pm EDT, and should rise this evening, as the center of TD 7 passes about 50 miles to the south near midnight. The first hurricane hunter mission into TD 7 is scheduled for Saturday morning.
Figure 1. Satellite image of TD 7 as it was forming at 3:17 pm EDT August 9, 2012.
Forecast for TD 7
TD 7 formed about 400 miles east-northeast of where Ernesto became a tropical depression, as seen on our wundermap. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are currently quite similar to what Ernesto experienced, and I expect TD 7 will struggle with dry air like Ernesto did. The SHIPS model predicts that shear will remain light through Friday then rise to the moderate range on Saturday, when the storm will encounter moderate shear from upper-level westerly winds associated with a trough of low pressure. Since conditions are so similar to what Ernesto experienced, the official NHC forecast of a 45 - 50 mph tropical storm moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands Saturday and Sunday is a reasonable one.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I think they will want to wait 24 hours before renumbers begin...
Yes, you're right.... but I do need rain :) I'm in the Leewards, the northern islands.
maybe 60 %
Yes i believe youre right
Link
80%.
On the contrary. Fast developers are the ones we should want. Out to sea with our fascination of hurricane-watching fulfilled. Some of you have clearly never been through a major hurricane.
TD 7 looks too be spining has if it was in the Southern Hemisphere
That's just 93L making the ITCZ act up.
You know, it sounds possible, considering the circles are 48hrs probabilities.
Pasch wrote the first discussion for TD7. He basically split one paragraph into two which made it look longer. You would think they would enjoy the challenge of forecasting a new storm and get into more detail. Maybe not.
Ah yes, that is a neat effect of the anticyclonic flow above the TD.
What the...
I think thats just the way the clouds are booming still cool though!
We are long overdue for big ones.
Noticed that earlier as well. Probably has something to do with the convection being directly under the upper level anticyclone.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
900 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2012
LAC041-065-107-100245-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0476.000000T0000Z-120810T0245Z/
TENSAS LA-FRANKLIN LA-MADISON LA-
900 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2012
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND NORTH CENTRAL
TENSAS PARISHES...
AT 901 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR NEWLIGHT MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED PARISHES.
I dontthink thats an anticyclone effect... that looke to be froom the thunderstorms... your guess is as good as mine
Awesome job! Very detailed!
Then why bother posting if you think fish storms are boring?
thats cool
ShortWave IR2
dont you love school
school:/
Heck no.
If the entire US coastline doesn't look like this, then it is a boring storm to some.
Thats like asking if alberto was a hurricane
never seen that description before
LOL dran
Well, I like to think I am entitled to my opinion, and you have to agree with me that they ARE boring as supposed to something similar brewing in the Caribbean or close to the US - that's all mate!
1. THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IN A DAY OR SO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Storms like Igor, Danielle, Julia, Bill, Katia, Ophelia are by far the most interesting storms you can get as most major hurricanes are 'fish' storm hurricanes.
Storms close to the US or some other land mass like what we just saw with Ernesto causes death, destruction, distraught and fear. Certainly, they're impressive and the Caribbean is known to produce extremely powerful storms, while we all may remark as to how beautiful the storm is on satellite most of us are thinking about what is going on under there.
With ''fish'' storms you don't have to worry about that fact.
well lets not go that far yet
but remember taz saw it first
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