Tropical Depression Seven forms
Tropical Depression Seven is here. Looking remarkably like the tropical depression that became Tropical Storm Ernesto on August 1, TD 7 has a limited region of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. A large amount of dry air to the west and north is visible on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is interfering with TD 7's heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, which is quite favorable for intensification. Ocean temperatures are 26°C, which is a bit on the cool side, though. Winds at the Middle Atlantic buoy 41041 were 20 mph at 5 pm EDT, and should rise this evening, as the center of TD 7 passes about 50 miles to the south near midnight. The first hurricane hunter mission into TD 7 is scheduled for Saturday morning.
Figure 1. Satellite image of TD 7 as it was forming at 3:17 pm EDT August 9, 2012.
Forecast for TD 7
TD 7 formed about 400 miles east-northeast of where Ernesto became a tropical depression, as seen on our wundermap. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are currently quite similar to what Ernesto experienced, and I expect TD 7 will struggle with dry air like Ernesto did. The SHIPS model predicts that shear will remain light through Friday then rise to the moderate range on Saturday, when the storm will encounter moderate shear from upper-level westerly winds associated with a trough of low pressure. Since conditions are so similar to what Ernesto experienced, the official NHC forecast of a 45 - 50 mph tropical storm moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands Saturday and Sunday is a reasonable one.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 — Blog Index
No animations yet
93E 08/09/2012 1745Z
Lat: 10.5N Lon: 102.5W
Too Weak
Fix History:Dvorak
Links to : MTCSWA
Andrew (very few memories only 4 years old, thank God), Fran, Charley, Frances, Jeanne, Wilma.
1011mb is still a bit high... Is this its closest approach to the buoy or is it still a bit to west/SW of it?
Tropical storm Bonnie.
Lake Superior averages 17C water temp this time of year..not going to be anything tropical any time soon :P
1. THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IN A DAY OR SO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
I really have no idea what TD7 is going to do, since the models are all over the map. I like Tennisgirl's analysis, however. It's easy to get excited over a nice looking storm (Ernesto) compared to a "crappy" looking storm (TD7). The inner structure of TD7 is better than Ernesto at the same stage of development. Whether this presages further development or death is beyond me. One thing I'd say is that the fast forward speed of Ernesto was overlooked by almost everyone, including the NHC. As I posted before, weak storms can do one of two things. They can move fast or they can move slow and build up intensity. They can't do both. We were fooled by Ernesto in this regard.
Also, those westerly trade winds still deserve respect as cyclone destroyers, especially if TD7 survives the trip to the Eastern Caribbean. We'll have a better handle on what actually happens in the next two days. As for our new vistor from Africa, this is a total crap shoot (sticking to tonight's theme :) ) It could be another fish storm or the one that crushed Miami. At this early stage, I'll let others speculate on him for the next seven days. My energy level just isn't that high any longer. :)
Kman, I hope that drink helped. You've always been enthusiatic about storms but I believe you about not wanting a category anything hitting your island. I've spent several pleasant vacations diving there, and often thought to myself this would be a precarious place to be in a hurricane. The only worse place was on Blackbird Caye, an atoll about 26 miles off the central coast of Belize. I've taken several trips there near the supposed end of hurricane season and got bit once, when we had Mitch coming in and had to make the two hour trip back to Belize City through 12 foot swells in a 32 foot boat. We also got out sailboat back into Miami the day before Andrew hit and got the last plane out, so my record in avoiding hurricanes isn't too good. :)
I hope everyone has a good night and that we all regain our composure in the morning.
Did lose electricity with Katrina, Jeanne & Francis during that period. 1day,6 days, 7 days respectively.
Minor damage (awnings, tress, etc) and a nuisance really is all luckily.
My analogue storm for 93L... Hurricane #4 1906
Not sure, but it's still falling at a good rate. Being that TD7's center is so small, it should be right at 1009mb just as the NHC said.
Ditto...among others...
I never once felt scared, but was really inconvenienced without power for weeks.
Was too young to remember Frederic - but hear from the rest of my family that it was VERY scary. Sounded like one big continuous tornado above them.
Georges(H), Jeanne(TS) and Irene(TS), could mention Olga(STS) but meh... that was just a breeze. XD
The buoy is at 14.2/46.0 and TD 07's surface center is probably between 46.0 and 46.5W already based on the 11PM EDT coordinates, so this will be its closest approach.
MI is safe from TC formation unless perfect circumstances come about and another "Hurricane Huron" forms.
Hurricane Huron
Funny thing is... I was briefly considering using Frederic as an analogue for TD7 before I realized people would probably flip about it.
After leaving us...
Happens when travel speed is half or more of the MaximumSustainedWinds.
eg The bottom of your car's tire is moving at close to zero-speed in relation to the road, while the top of the tire is moving at twice the speed of your car.
I missed it by 4 months :S Would be nice to see something of the like happen again, NHC might react differently.
Oops, hate late at night blogging when I'm tired. Will go correct that, thanks.
Can't say the same thought didn't cross my mind.
Frederic was a TD all through the Caribbean islands and very weak. But he absolutely bombed out in the GOMEX. Most people were not aware of his presence at all until 1-2 days before, my family included.
He was also fairly small, but strong. AND - snuck in through a weakness between the Central Plains ridge and the A/B high.
Umm, not good man.
lol, jk.
You just have a fascination with the weather. I always have been interested in the weather as well. My first Hurricane to experience was Frances. While not too strong, the length was horrible. Then Jeanne 2 weeks later, then Wilma. 04 and 05 gave me a complex. I started blogging in 04, joined in 05. I believe that I had the PTSD bug as while I enjoyed tracking them my nerves would go through the roof. I've been working on that the past couple years and has really calmed down my nerves and allows me to focus on what I love to do.
2004/2005 caused a lot of problems for many people. It's not normal to get hit that many times in just 2 years.
this happen in the year I was born...
How did you ever make it through Bonnie??
The NHC is issuing advisories on Hurricane Michigan with 90mph winds and 980mb pressure. That would be a sight to see, if it fits all the characteristics then you never know.
Yup, turn 15 on Sunday.
I wish I would've saw it, parents did and they have told me about it but that doesn't count.
LMAO
Some pretty epic gales (of november) possible this year. Water temp has been above normal so we might get some decent storms.
Lake Michigan has warm waters as well, if a system stalled and then went warm-core it could happen.
Meanwhile TD07 is pretty strong...
He and Taz... never lived where a hurricane impact was likely... that is the pure fascination factor at work there... but there is a definite correlation between blogger participation and potential impact areas...
Hurricane Frederic, Category Three. Frederic strengthened from a category one to a category four storm in 30 hours while in the Gulf of Mexico, but weakened before landfall. The sustained winds reached 100 mph at landfall with gusts near 145 mph. Frederic moved inland near Mobile Bay and the Dauphin Island Bridge. The wind resulted in incredible damage to Mobile. Frederic was the first major hurricane to affect Mobile since 1926. Watch streaming video NewsChannel 5 reports from the aftermath of Frederic.
Between 1995-2005 there were seven hurricanes that had a significant impact on the Mobile Bay area. Thatt does not include Hurricane Cindy or Hurricane Isidore since these passed farther west.
1995, August 3rd
Hurricane Erin, Category Two. Hurricane Erin had winds of 100 mph at landfall, and it moved inland near Pensacola, FL. Hurricane Erin was the first of two local Hurricanes in 1995.
1995, October 4th
Hurricane Opal, Category Three. Hurricane winds were estimated near 115 mph at landfall, and Opal moved inland near Santa Rosa Island, FL. Hurricane Opal reached category four strength, rapidly intensifying from a category one hurricane in only 18 hours. Hurricane Opal attained category four status 200 miles south of Pensacola. Before landfall, Opal weakened to a category three, but still caused major damage in Pensacola. The storm surge reached 12-20 feet. The highest rain total near Pensacola in the Ellyson community reached 15.45 inches.
1997, July 19th
Hurricane Danny, Category One. Hurricane Danny had wind gusts reaching 80 mph at landfall as it crossed Mullet Point south of Point Clear in Baldwin County. Hurricane Danny then stalled over Mobile Bay and brought record flooding to south Alabama. Rain totals at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab reached 36.71 inches with 25.98 inches of that in seven hours.
1998, September 28th
Hurricane Georges, Strong Category Two. Hurricane Georges delivered sustained winds of 103 mph at landfall, and then it moved inland near Biloxi MS. Hurricane Georges produced 16.7 inches of rain in Pascagoula. The storm surge reached 12 feet near Fort Morgan, and Georges produced 25 foot waves in the Gulf of Mexico. Georges slowed in forward speed once it approached Alabama. This led to huge rain amounts. In Bay Minette, a rain total of nearly 30 inches was recorded.
2004, September 16th
Hurricane Ivan, Category Three. Hurricane Ivan had winds around 120 mph at landfall, and it moved inland near Gulf Shores. Ivan was the strongest Hurricane from Baldwin to Santa Rosa Counties in more than 100 years. 160 miles inland, near Demopolis, AL, a wind gust near 90 mph was recorded. Rain totals reached 15.75 inches in Pensacola, with a storm surge in Escambia Bay of 12 feet.
2005, July 10th
Hurricane Dennis, Category Three. Hurricane Dennis carried winds of 121 mph at landfall, as it moved inland near Navarre Beach. Dennis had an extremely small eye, and was only significant in a localized area. Dennis prompted a large scale evacuation as it reached category four status in the Gulf of Mexico before it weakened near the central Gulf coast.
2005, August 29th
Hurricane Katrina, Category Three. Hurricane Katrina had winds at landfall estimated at 120 mph. It moved inland near Waveland MS. Hurricane Katrina was the costliest and one of the deadliest U.S. disasters. Hurricane Katrina produced a 27 foot storm surge in Hancock County, MS, and breached levees in New Orleans. The highest storm surge along Mobile Bay reached 12 feet at the USS Alabama along I-10. The death toll from Hurricane Katrina was over 1,800.
there have been other smaller storms not listed here... I just missed Camille by about 6 weeks.....
Near peak 135mph
Especially after the 2004 season, plus the tsunami, then Katrina, and then Rita which created the mass evacuation in TX.
I kept saying, "Make it stop".
That couldn't be why Florida has the most bloggers, could it?? :-)
Not bad organization for a TD.
Hurricane Camile in 1969. I was in Biloxi visting my cousin, who was stationed at Keesler AFB. We were actually invited to the famous hurricane party in the apartment building that was nothing but a slab the next day. I convinced him we needed to get inland...fast. We didn't leave soon enough and traveled a bunch of back roads...in the dark...with trees and power poles blocking our way and still falling while we were driving. Took shelter in a church about 15 miles inland and rode it out there. I'll never forget the sound of that wind. It was like a thousand corpses come back from the grave, all howling at once.
The worst was actually Hurricane Ivan when it hit Alabama. It was a cat 1 hurricane all the way to Birmingham, about 300 miles inland. High wind gust in Montgomery was 92 mph with 70 mph sustained. We lost tens of thousand of trees and the entire power grid was destroyed. It took about nine days for us to get power and almost 12 days to finally get water. Thank goodness for the Salvation Army and National Guard. It was incredibly hot in the days after Ivan, and the water and ice delivered by those two organizations literally saved our lives. I learned a lot about storm preparedness from that one.
Don't remember much about the first 5. I thought Floyd was gonna completely destroy my house (Thank God it didn't), don't remember Harvey, Irene turned Florida into a water park, Gordon of '00 was a pain, got lucky Frances wasn't worse, same goes for Jeanne, Wilma was the worst of all damage-wise, Fay was the sister of Irene, and I don't know how I made it through Bonnie (thanks to Mississippi for this sarcasm).
Viewing: 951 - 1001
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 — Blog Index