Tropical Depression Seven forms
Tropical Depression Seven is here. Looking remarkably like the tropical depression that became Tropical Storm Ernesto on August 1, TD 7 has a limited region of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. A large amount of dry air to the west and north is visible on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is interfering with TD 7's heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, which is quite favorable for intensification. Ocean temperatures are 26°C, which is a bit on the cool side, though. Winds at the Middle Atlantic buoy 41041 were 20 mph at 5 pm EDT, and should rise this evening, as the center of TD 7 passes about 50 miles to the south near midnight. The first hurricane hunter mission into TD 7 is scheduled for Saturday morning.
Figure 1. Satellite image of TD 7 as it was forming at 3:17 pm EDT August 9, 2012.
Forecast for TD 7
TD 7 formed about 400 miles east-northeast of where Ernesto became a tropical depression, as seen on our wundermap. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are currently quite similar to what Ernesto experienced, and I expect TD 7 will struggle with dry air like Ernesto did. The SHIPS model predicts that shear will remain light through Friday then rise to the moderate range on Saturday, when the storm will encounter moderate shear from upper-level westerly winds associated with a trough of low pressure. Since conditions are so similar to what Ernesto experienced, the official NHC forecast of a 45 - 50 mph tropical storm moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands Saturday and Sunday is a reasonable one.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Probably, but it is going to be struggle for awhile.
Dry air and shear will be a problem for a few days.
I’ve read that 10,000 lightning bolts per second flash worldwide and can be perceived by some weather satellites.
Does anyone keep track of Coulombs per second that are released with those bolts? That would or could be another measure of how the atmosphere is getting more energy with the increased water vapor (four percent.)
Expert opinion would be appreciated.
TD #7
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Early Model Wind Forecasts
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GILMA...LOCATED ABOUT 665 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF WEAKENING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ERNESTO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Lol, well since I was born and raised right in the middle of Hurricane alley (Puerto Rico) and then moved to Mississippi (Katrina) I have quite a few systems to talk about form David to Hug to George which hit both my houses the one in Puerto Rico and then the one in Mississippi. Oh and Katrina which finished the job.
i hope no cane hit us then here PR , please!
I can match you model for model, Pat! :) How you doing, Pat?
The first one I actually remember was in 1948 in Fort Lauderdale. Do you really want to match me? LOL
And that is 1948 not 1848.
You still dry up there? We really haven't got much of anything. One of the driest summers I can remember.
These systems go anywhere they want to. But at this time it is unlikely. It would probably have to be pretty strong to lift that much North. But there is some troughiness about the time it moves into the Antilles so it could move a little more WNW in a few days.
I doubt I can beat that record lol. I must say. David happened when I was a kid, and it got me hooked on Hurricanes I learned to track them learned what coordinates meant and what make Hurricanes work. Katrina on the other side made me hate them. With Katrina I learned everything about loosing your home and fighting with the insurance people. Oh I also learned how it feels to be dropped by insurers with Katrina, and that MREs can be really tasty but full of calories. lol.
The dry air and Sal issues in the Central Atlantic will be critical over the next several weeks as the ITCZ has been very dry lately. If you factor in the next MJO arrival into the Atlantic basin, and the ITCZ moistens up as usual, we could start to see development before nearing the Lesser Antilles but no go so far.
The most recent SAL chart (below) shows that that the AOI at 50% currently leaving Africa will not have as much of a dry air issue but you can see that TD7 is going to have a very tough time with dry air between now and arrival at the Lesser Antilles. This one is going to have a tough time just like Ernesto in the short term.
Link
Ever think of moving? Looks like you pick really bad places to live. :)
You covered pretty much what is happening in the entire basin.
Interesting link inside the article you linked. First newspaper weather map:
Most of us in coastal Florida got dropped by all the insurance companies. When I was young, like a lot of kids, I wanted a hurricane to hit. But when you have a family and a home, you have a different perspective.
What stands out to me the most from the past several weeks is that dryness in the ITCZ. Each wave recently, including Ernesto, have developed within a very small moisture envelope and they have not left much behind after passing through. It's the biggest issue at the moment in spite of warm SST's and relatively favorable sheer.
The other issue is the speed of the waves; Ernesto never got the chance to align properly until he slowed down in the Western Caribbean and TD7 is presently booking along at 20 mph..........Too fast for any significant development before arrival in the Lesser Antilles IMHO.
Madeira Beach, FL
Mostly Cloudy
82 °F
(28 °C) Humidity: 88 %
Wind Speed: SE 6 MPH
Barometer: 29.97" (1014.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 78 °F (26 °C)
Heat Index: 91 °F (33 °
It actually was a fort originally.
AL, 05, 2012081012, , BEST, 0, 180N, 985W, 20, 1005, PT, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 150, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, D,
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