Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting BahaHurican:
Qtn for the blog... is DUDE an insult for Americans? because the pple who seem to get most offended by something I say seem to get offended by that word...

Just for all the bloggers out there, DUDE is not considered an insult in the Bahamas... and AFAIK is used similarly to "man", as in the expression "look, man, I don't know what time the GFS updates"...

PLS... no offense meant.

No problem, Dude!

Quoting Patrap:


It finally swirled out in the Arctic Northwest Passage as a warm pool eddy.

Hey Pat.

I heard they were going to film an Unsolved Mysteries episode based on Karen disappearance.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Qtn for the blog... is DUDE an insult for Americans? because the pple who seem to get most offended by something I say seem to get offended by that word...

Just for all the bloggers out there, DUDE is not considered an insult in the Bahamas... and AFAIK is used similarly to "man", as in the expression "look, man, I don't know what time the GFS updates"...

PLS... no offense meant.

Dude is an insult if you are a woman..

Dude, itssa Guy Acronym,,its all in usage.

Like when you see your roommate drinking yer last Fresca..

Its Like "Dude"?

or when your friend wrecks yer car its alike.

.."DUDE"!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Quoting hurricanealley:


Hey Pat.

I heard they were going to film an Unsolved Mysteries episode based on Karen disappearance.

I would watch fo sho'.

Quoting angiest:


My guess is the Great Hurricane of 1780.

This one was probably a blast to track.

Is this area that Ernesto is traversing heavily populated because there must be some serious flooding and mudslides going on there?

Quoting boating79:
Hello All...

Hello!

Quoting Patrap:
Hate to burst yer Broken Gumball,but...

....0918 Z is today last I checked.

The Images are correct, its your browser.

ATCF images (Hurricane Track Models)

Current Storms:

TD #7

May very well be a browser issue. My eyes may be bad, but I'm seeing August 5 from this vantage point.

You're still my buddy though, Pat.

TS Ernesto thru Rainbow Loop thru 23:15

Quoting GTcooliebai:
What was your favorite one to track?

Hazel in 1954 and Donna in 1960. I was on Long Island in 1954 but in Norway in 1960. By the way, I nailed both of them.

Quoting GPTGUY:



I know where the Cayman Islands are thank you and I know there are a good many Caymanians on this blog who offer a lot of knowledge and I know how many major hurricanes pass near or over the Cayman Islands..I was referring to the guy that said Ernesto would be a cat. 4 near the Cayman's and now saying TD 7 could be a cat 3-4 near the Cayman's and could be another Gustav..I was asking him why he is hell bent on having a major near the Cayman's...ok DUDE!!

I'm glad to hear u understand why somebody from the Caymans might expect storms to blow up in their vicinity. It seems u r suggesting kidcayman hypes storms [wishcasts?]. I don't find kidcayman hypes much more than the average blogger in here... e.g. I don't see him insisting that ex-Florence or future TD-8 is going to come and hit the Caymans... and even NHC believed Ernesto had a fair chance of becoming a major in that area...

My point was that there is fairly sound climatological evidence that major hurricanes are possible in that part of the CAR... so paranoid doesn't = wrong...

Good Evening,

Glad to be back on the blog, ive been in the hospital for four days...although i have been lurking in the hospital bed with ipad in hand!!

Quoting KoritheMan:


May very well be a browser issue. My eyes may be bad, but I'm seeing August 5 from this vantage point.

You're still my buddy though, Pat.

Itsa all good..

: )

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
TD #7

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts

In America dude can be taken as an insult; all about the context. "Okay dude, whatever you say." Negative type. "Wow, dude, did you see that wicked wind report from yesterday?" Very popular still with the stoner and surfer crowds and carries no negative meaning.

Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Good Evening,

Glad to be back on the blog, ive been in the hospital for four days...although i have been lurking in the hospital bed with ipad in hand!!

Welcome back, hope your feeling better.

Quoting 1900hurricane:
At this point, I am now rooting for Ernesto to make the crossing. Needs to take a better angle though...

It's an impressive try against those mountains, which make the Rockies look like the Blue Ridge. Right now he's dealing with a couple 19,000 foot volcanoes.

Quoting hurricanealley:
Last I heard Karen's remnants are still out there.

That deserves a LOL.

Quoting Gino99:
And another TD has formed..

There are always tropical waves....


Most never even make it to named storms!

Quoting washingtonian115:
Who was shouting at you?.Because it certainly looked like a possibility from the start.

It still is a possibility. All depends on how strong TD-7 becomes I guess. It's moving almost at the same speed as Ernesto was, 20mph.

TD-7 NHC Track


TD-5 Pre-Ernesto


Look at the end point. mmmm both just south of Jamaica.

Quoting Patrap:


Welcome back, hope your feeling better.

Thanks Pat, i definitely am!! Glad u guys kept the tropics in line, although the next few weeks could get interesting!!

Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Good Evening,

Glad to be back on the blog, ive been in the hospital for four days...although i have been lurking in the hospital bed with ipad in hand!!

That's the spirit! Even hospitalization can't inhibit a true Wunder blogger from being here. Hope everything's okay.

Quoting KoritheMan:


That's the spirit! Even hospitalization can't inhibit a true Wunder blogger from being here. Hope everything's okay.

LOL yes, i drove my wife crazy asking for the ipad to check the latest comments!!!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU AUG 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GILMA...LOCATED ABOUT 715 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IN A DAY OR SO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

I have so many links to tropical storms in my "Favorites" bar that I just got a pop up that reads:

Dude, get a new computer or get a life.

Quoting LesBonsTemps:


It's an impressive try against those mountains, which make the Rockies look like the Blue Ridge. Right now he's dealing with a couple 19,000 foot volcanoes.

Yeah, the mountains are definitely an issue, but luckily for him, it looks like he will miss the really tall ones in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt just to the south.

Quoting Grothar:


Hazel in 1954 and Donna in 1960. I was on Long Island in 1954 but in Norway in 1960. By the way, I nailed both of them.

I was in Jax FL during Donna in 1960 and I was not quite born :) in 1954 but I do remember Dora in 1964 also in Jacksonville, FL.

Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm glad to hear u understand why somebody from the Caymans might expect storms to blow up in their vicinity. It seems u r suggesting kidcayman hypes storms [wishcasts?]. I don't find kidcayman hypes much more than the average blogger in here... e.g. I don't see him insisting that ex-Florence or future TD-8 is going to come and hit the Caymans... and even NHC believed Ernesto had a fair chance of becoming a major in that area...

My point was that there is fairly sound climatological evidence that major hurricanes are possible in that part of the CAR... so paranoid doesn't = wrong...

I understand where you're coming from..but if you look at the forecasted track of Florence once it became a tropical storm it was a more wnw path well north of the caribbean so obviously he wouldn't call for ex-Florence to be near the Cayman's. I've read these blogs for 7 years and I don't post much unless a storm is threatening my area along the Mississippi Coast and I've read my share of wishcasting on this blog in 7 years and put up with stormtop but the past week with Ernesto and now as soon as TD 7 formed he was calling for a major near the Cayman's

LOL
THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IN A DAY OR SO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

That would be so awesome if Ernesto maintain it's name and strengthened in the EPAC. Would it's ACE count towards ours or the EPACs?

Quoting CybrTeddy:
LOL
THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IN A DAY OR SO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

That would be so awesome if Ernesto maintain it's name and strengthened in the EPAC. Would it's ACE count towards ours or the EPACs?

I don't think it would do that because if you look at storms in the past that did that...They had a name change like Hurricane Caesar - Douglas.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
LOL
THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IN A DAY OR SO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

That would be so awesome if Ernesto maintain it's name and strengthened in the EPAC. Would it's ACE count towards ours or the EPACs?

EPac, since it would have crossed basins (the previous ACE stays here in the Atlantic though), and yes, it would be quite awesome.

Quoting Grothar:


Hazel in 1954 and Donna in 1960. I was on Long Island in 1954 but in Norway in 1960. By the way, I nailed both of them.

Evening Gro. Donna, I would never forget that one. Although I had experienced a couple of smaller storms Donna was my first direct hit, eye over my house storm. That was the one that gave me the weather geek bug.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
LOL
THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IN A DAY OR SO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

That would be so awesome if Ernesto maintain it's name and strengthened in the EPAC. Would it's ACE count towards ours or the EPACs?

Starting next year Ernesto would keep it's name on the EPac side if it's circulation survived Mexico. This year it would be Hurricane Ernesto - Hector though.

i think Ernesto kill 93E

Quoting Gorty:
So when and where that weakness occurs is key or when the 1026 mb High will come down and what direction its going in. Unless other models are not showing that then if thats the case, need to study everything more!

Well, long term models should be taken with a grain of salt anyway. Use it for like, general guidance of possibilities, but nothing more. Even when they're a few days away it's hard to know sometimes just what's going to happen.

Quoting Articuno:

I don't think it would do that because if you look at storms in the past that did that...They had a name change like Hurricane Caesar - Douglas.

Ever since 2002, the NHC has decided all crossover systems retain their names IIRC.

Quoting hurricanealley:
Last I heard Karen's remnants are still out there.

This is no kidding: today I was going to write the same thing! Gotta love the remnants of Karen, where ever they are!

Quoting Grothar:


Hazel in 1954 and Donna in 1960. I was on Long Island in 1954 but in Norway in 1960. By the way, I nailed both of them.

Im not even going there with that one..

You can do it Ernesto.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
LOL
THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IN A DAY OR SO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

That would be so awesome if Ernesto maintain it's name and strengthened in the EPAC. Would it's ACE count towards ours or the EPACs?

Wow, who would have ever thought Ernesto would survive the Mexican mountains? It still looks quite organized I must say! Let's hope for the best for the folks out there..

Quoting yqt1001:


Starting next year Ernesto would keep it's name on the EPac side if it's circulation survived Mexico. This year it would be Hurricane Ernesto - Hector though.

Really? I thought that was decided in 2002 or so I read, could I have a link to any papers for that? Did not know.

Quoting Articuno:

I don't think it would do that because if you look at storms in the past that did that...They had a name change like Hurricane Caesar - Douglas.

They have changed the naming policy since then though, there just hasn't been one that has been able to maintain its name since then.

Link

Quoting Grothar:


No problem, Dude!

Not that I know of. In the UK they tend to refer to us as Yanks. But they tend to mean it in some sort of negative way (which they have for nearly everyone) and being from California, find it odd to be referred to as a yank anyway, never having even been to the east coast or New York! To me, dude and man are pretty typical from Calif.

BahaHurican: ...is 'DUDE' an insult for Americans? Because the people who seem to get most offended by something I say seem to get offended by that word...
203 ncstorm: 'Dude' is an insult if you are a woman...

Is it? Women have been addressing groups of women as 'guys' since at least the late80s.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
LOL
THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IN A DAY OR SO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

That would be so awesome if Ernesto maintain it's name and strengthened in the EPAC. Would it's ACE count towards ours or the EPACs?

Current ACE Numbers
Active Storms = 3
Name Current Wind Max Wind ACE
ERNESTO
Current wind: 45
Max Wind: 75
A.C.E = 7.8125
GILMA
Current wind: 60
Max Wind: 70
A.C.E = 4.22
KIROGI
Current wind: 40
Max Wind: 45
A.C.E = 3.4425

Quoting icmoore:


I was in Jax FL during Donna in 1960 and I was not quite born :) in 1954 but I do remember Dora in 1964 also in Jacksonville, FL.

Dora was a bad one. I do remember they expected that to move through the Caibbean because it started so low and had formed very close to Africa. But it certainly took a big turn. They learned a lot from that particular storm.