94L still disorganized; Hurricane Gordon bearing down on the Azores
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) located midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa is headed west at 20 - 25 mph. This storm is a threat to develop into a tropical storm that will affect the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Wednesday. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is a bit sparse. The storm does have an impressive amount of spin at middle levels of the atmosphere, though. A pass from the Indian OceanSAT-2 satellite Saturday night at 10:06 pm EDT noted a broad, elongated center of nearly calm winds several hundred miles in diameter at the surface, and nothing resembling a well-organized closed surface circulation. 94L will pass near buoy 41041 on Monday morning. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model has backed off on its forecast that 94L will develop into a hurricane before reaching the islands, and is now predicting 94L will be a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. The ECMWF model does not develop 94L. It is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane before reaching the islands, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. With 94L staying relatively weak and disorganized, the chances of it turning to the northwest and missing the Lesser Antilles, as the NOGAPS model has been predicting, are diminishing. The GFS model predicts that 94L will go on to hit the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm on Friday, though the storm could also miss the island, passing just to the north or the south. At longer ranges, the storm is capable of going anywhere from Canada to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula; it's too early to tell.
Figure 2. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model from August 18, 2012, was done 20 different times at low resolution using slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of forecasts (pink lines.) The high-resolution operational GFS forecast is shown in white. The GFS ensemble forecast is showing decreasing risk to the U.S. East Coast at long ranges, and an increasing risk to the Gulf Coast.
Gordon bears down on the Azores
Hurricane warnings are flying for the central and eastern Azores Islands as Hurricane Gordon barrels eastwards at 21 mph. Gordon's peak 110 mph winds it had last night made it the strongest hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Latest visible satellite loops show that cold water and high wind shear are taking a toll on Gordon, with the southern portion of the storm deteriorating and the eye beginning to open up. However, Gordon will still be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm when it passes through the Azores Monday morning. Winds at Ponta Delgada were 11 mph out of the east at 10 am EDT this morning, but will rise through the day as Gordon approaches.
Gordon is not a threat to any other land areas, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe. The last time the Azores were affected by a tropical storm was in 2009, when Tropical Storm Grace brought 65 mph winds on October 4. No significant damage was reported. Ironically, the last hurricane to affect the Azores was the 2006 version of Hurricane Gordon, which caused minor damage in the Azores, consisting of mostly fallen trees and power outages. However, after Gordon became an extratropical low, four injuries due to falling debris from high wind were reported in Spain, and Gordon brought high winds and rain that affected practice rounds at the Ryder Cup golf tournament in Ireland.
Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Saturday August 18, 2012, at 11:50 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Jeff Masters
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Sure does y'all. That's why they have labeled it invest 95L (L is used for Atlantic storms). And may actually develop before it heads back in to Mexico or extreme S Texas. Glad to help out anytime I can, although I'm not an expert by any means. Always learning just like y'all.
The surface circulation of Helene most likely dissipated, leaving only mid-level remnants which are now interacting with the surface trof over the Western Gulf.
But I understand yer drift.
That's what we do here, share and learn, well until..u know
Helene went poof overe MX there are no lift overes
95L is a hole new thing at so from the 2pm two there is no wording of Helene on it
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
looks like more rain for louisiana later this week...
Thanks very much!
it is a mix of the TCVN and the AVNI
intensity forecast mine is in Gray
They are distinct as nrtiwlnvragn recently pointed out.
Nah, because correcting the spelling and grammar of complete strangers on the internet, who won't appreciate the correction anyway, is always such an efficient use of everyone's time that we'll do that first.
On topic, someone mentioned webcams for the Azores? Any links still available?
Why am I not surprised you have it going right over the caymans as a major hurricane?
Which would mean it's not going to the Gulf seeing as Texas is still shown as bone dry and the rest of the Gulf is average.
Or Floyd, Bertha(96).
Please God no!
27.17N 90.58W here. GC680. Same conditions.
Yes it will be.
Watching 94L closely for the next week as well.
LOL.
yes it would i think the hole blog would be mad with 95L too
why would it go right back west or NW, isn't there is a front right in the vicinity?
wouldn't that move it NE?
94L by far.
Gosh knows what gets plugged into those precipitation models. And unplugged.
no its not over the cayman islands at all its south of there and interms of intensity is due to the SHIPS
Its possible one of those things happen, but not both. If this goes to the Caribbean, it will be weak, at least until it gets to the Gulf/far west Caribbean. If it is to become a major quickly like he suggests it has to go north.
The race to Issac....
Not sure about Isaac, but to TD I am betting on 95 strictly due to its proximity to land.
Im to the point where Im ignoring anyone that doesn't have something "Decent" to say...
basically, wunderkid is about to meet my ignore list...
Uh-greed!
95L Rainbow
Actual Rainbow
Link
95 is getting some good spin going this eve...
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19796.asp ?feature=hurricanemovie
kinda has me worried a lil
NNE maybe? I don't think it could go NE. Still not sure though. Maybe Levi or someone could chime in on that. Again though, going with the last forecast for Helena, the typical track of storms so far this year...I'm guessing it is headed right back over land.
yep
95L will be the I storm 1st
It's a pretty large system so it's definitely possible, but given how far north it is already you are likely to miss the bulk of the storm.
Anadarko, copy.
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