Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Field Notes from a Catastrophe book review

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:43 GMT le 14 juillet 2006

Elizabeth Kolbert is a writer for the New Yorker magazine. A three-part series she wrote for the magazine in 2005 has been converted into a short, well-researched, and very readable book on climate change called, "Field Notes from a Catastrophe" ($15 from amazon.com). The science presented is excellent, and I couldn't find any errors. Kolbert visits leading climate change scientists in the field, spending time in the Arctic, Greenland, Dr. James Hansen's laboratory, and in United Nations climate change meetings. We get to see the science the way these scientists see it, which is a very powerful way to emphasize the major climate changes that are already underway on our planet.

Kolbert delivers a memorable description of a visit to Alaska, where record temperatures have begun melting permafrost that formed at the beginning of the last ice age, 120,000 years ago. She visits the remote island of Sarichef, five miles off the coast of the Seward Peninsula. A subsistence hunting village has existed there for centuries. However, the entire population of 591 must be relocated to the mainland because the island is eroding away. The problem? Lack of the customary sea ice in the fall has allowed storm surges from the powerful storms that hit during that season to push far inland. Kolbert talks to an Inuit hunter named John Keogak, who lives in Canada's Northwest Territories, 500 miles north of the Arctic circle. He and his fellow hunters started seeing robins for the first time a few years ago. The Inuits have no word for the bird in their language. Kolbert travels to "drunken forests" where the trees lean at crazy angles due to the collapse of the permafrost beneath. In one of many of the odd and amusing observations the book is sprinkled with, she writes:

A few blocks beyond the drunken forest, we came to a house where the front yard showed clear signs of ice wedge melt-off. The owner, trying to make the best of things, had turned the yard into a miniature golf course.

As the title implies, this is not a cheerful book, and Kolbert paints a gloomy picture of the how climate change is affecting the planet. I highly recommend the book for those interested in reading about climate change. Three and a half stars.

Jeff Masters

Permafrost Collapse (akalaska)

Climate change is causing rapid coastal erosion in the Arctic. As the permafrost melts, the land falls into the ocean. (Elson Lagoon, Barrow, Alaska)

Coastal Erosion (akalaska)

A scientist is taking high-precision GPS measurements of coastal erosion in the Arctic, due to melting permafrost. The coast is eroding at the rate of 3-12 feet per year.

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401. seflagamma 22:40 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
This is something else to read! ROFL!!! Easy does it guys....let's not take ourselves too seriously and respect everyone's different personalities and learn from all! Gams Member Since: 29 août 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485

402. plywoodstatenative 22:41 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
jeff, the only real storms keep coming out of the gulf, across Central America and develop in the eastern pacific. I wonder if the tracks will reverse themselves and we will see storms come out of Central America and into the Gulf later this year. Member Since: 15 novembre 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

403. plywoodstatenative 22:43 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
Easy does it all, this is a new set up for a lot of people. It will take a little while for everyone here to get used to this system as well as the setup. Member Since: 15 novembre 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

404. StellarCyclone 22:43 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
Any thoughts on the blob off Nicaragua? Also there seems to be a lot of hot air coming from the Louisiana direction. I think I'll ignore it. :-)

405. StellarCyclone 22:45 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
What's the best way to see pressure readings in the gulf and caribbean? Thanks in advance!

407. chefjeff 22:46 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
plywood, Oh yeah! Usually in October. Kinda like the June storms.

409. Bamatracker 22:47 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
hey everyone...This is Bamaweatherwatcher...but somehow my name got changed to Bamatracker when i logged on today!! Any idea how this happened? Member Since: 17 mai 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364

414. IKE 23:00 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
ST...sorry I missed you and your ego. Geez what a grudge you hold.......... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

415. weatherguy03 23:00 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
BTW, one year anniversary of Hurricane Emily, the one that Stormtop had going into Florida!..LOL Member Since: 5 juillet 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

416. supercell216 23:02 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
ST, water temperature doesn't affect where the waves move off the African coast. It has to do with the MJO, ITCZ and the trades.

417. supercell216 23:03 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
Really weatherguy03? LOL!!!! I did read his comments about a possible depression back in May!

418. Bamatracker 23:05 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
guess i am stuck with this name:( So what's going on..ST being his regular self i see! Member Since: 17 mai 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364

419. Alec 23:05 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
Hey supercell! Yes, btw it's been one yr(since last mid-July) since I posted on here!

420. weatherguy03 23:05 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
It was funny last year Supercell, ask Alec and Rocket. We kept telling him no way, it just cant break thru the ridge. But he was convinced of it. Oh well, it was fun though. Those were the good times. Member Since: 5 juillet 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

421. highndry 23:05 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
Is it just me or does Stormtop seem even more arrogant and cranky than usual today? I mean, seriously, what kind of prognostication is this? He's basically saying we're going to have a normal year. Well, given that we've got normal SSTs, normal shear, and otherwise normal conditions - yeah, makes sense to me. It's not written in stone - it's called playing the averages. Dealers in Vegas do this nightly. That's why the city exists. Let's see: normal year, normal chances of impacting in the most likely spots - so where does the surprise part come in? His big claim to fame: Katrina. Let's see: an intact hurricane makes it over Florida and onto the loop current in excessively warm waters with zero shear. It doesn't take a genius to figure out what comes next. Hell, I figured this out on my own by the time I saw her taking a southern track - difference is I'm not loudly patting myself on the back and trying desperately to look like an a$$hole for it. Stormtop, you wanna do some real prognostication, tell us where and when the first hurricane will strike and how strong it'll be, then sign your name to it and we'll grade ya on it.

422. Bamatracker 23:08 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
Well you have go give stormtop one thing...he certainly sticks to his story when he his right! Member Since: 17 mai 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364

423. Alec 23:08 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
It's called EGO! Yes bob, my first storm on here was Emily last yr! Sure was the good ole times!

424. supercell216 23:09 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
WOW weatherguy03 LOL!!! Guess he didn't see the 1022 mb high in the Gulf for days and days! Hey Alec!

425. Bamatracker 23:09 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
sorry us crazies came in and messed yall up weatherguy and alec...didn't mean too you all are just fun to be around! Member Since: 17 mai 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364

426. weatherguy03 23:11 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
Nah, nobody messed up anything. Its all cool. We all have the passion for weather and I hope we are learning something new everyday here. Member Since: 5 juillet 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

427. IKE 23:11 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
It's all about his ego...heightened by his prediction on Katrina...now it's gone to his head... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

428. rxse7en 23:12 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
Stormtop must be Dr. Masters' alter-ego! Why else would he be allowed to stay on here and insult people?! :D Member Since: 21 août 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 526

429. Alec 23:12 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
LOL Bama.....It's ok...I'm used to it! Last yr I was being named in every post by ST....Was really exciting to be on here for the first time last mid-July!

430. IKE 23:12 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
True. It's a wonder he isn't banned. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

431. Bamatracker 23:13 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
slow day for the tropics though...how come its always the slow ones when ST shows up? Member Since: 17 mai 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364

432. supercell216 23:16 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
Probably b/c he knows if there is a storm to track he will get it wrong just like Alberto this year and Emily last year (according to everyone here, I wasn't posting last year).

433. highndry 23:18 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
slow day for the tropics though...how come its always the slow ones when ST shows up? Probably because he's trying to prove his point - either that or IRL he's some pathetic computer geek modeler at Sandia with nothing better to do on days like these.

434. HurricaneRoman 23:18 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
Not start any trouble but the first few days Emilly was forecast to go directly in our direction.. Member Since: 25 février 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 958

435. weatherguy03 23:21 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
True, but he had it hitting Florida when it was almost near the Yucatan!..LOL Member Since: 5 juillet 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

436. supercell216 23:22 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
LOL weatherguy03!!! I must go and check the archives on that!!!

437. Alec 23:22 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
With a strong ridge to Emily's North, It drove her West all the way to Mexico(after hitting the Yucatan)......

438. guygee 23:22 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
Another active day in the tropics...blog. I was thinking of making a graph showing tropical blog activity for 2005 vs. 2006;) Some very good posts here today though, after scrolling though 400+ comments. Some people are not as funny as they think, but I can always rely on certain others here to be very informative, so thanks to those folks...off to enjoy my evening now, check back later... Member Since: 16 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2830

439. Bamatracker 23:23 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
well kinda but not quite hurricaneroman Link Member Since: 17 mai 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364

440. highndry 23:24 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
Not start any trouble but the first few days Emilly was forecast to go directly in our direction.. true, but it scooted south before turning north. I don't think anyone counted on it going as far south as it did before turning north a priori. I'm sure our good buddy ST knew it was going to scoot south before shooting north, figured it wouldn't hit Texas because of the building high and split the difference for N.O. In the event though, it cranked WAY south and almost got snuffed out by South America before turning and got caught up in a helluva steering current that slammed it into the Yucatan instead of shooting the gap - and then things went straight to hell.

441. sandcrab39565 23:25 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
Well folks all I can say is whew lets keep em not forming I have been up to my neck in recovery. Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9971

442. txweather 23:27 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
Good evening all, I see we all have our favorite friend here. Where would we be w/o his wisdom.:) What great prediction did the master prognosticator make now. I know i could go through the blog, but you all explaining it is much more entertaining.

443. Alec 23:28 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
hey txweather! Remember last yr? You along with some others were here discussing Emily around this time!

444. txweather 23:31 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
Yap, I remember that. I actually really thought it had a chance to get close enough for me to chase it, but alas no.

445. highndry 23:31 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
On the 2006 hurricane fizzle (so far) - Okay, yes it's been a slow season compared to last year, but four things to keep in mind. First, the second and third most damaging years for hurricanes didn't even get started 'till August - it ain't over yet. Second, the very conditions that are keeping hurricanes from forming are giving Philly a good soaking and if there's one city in America that needs a good cleaning out it's Philadelphia. Third, if the season does get cranking, it might make the yuppies with the disposable income want to dispose of it somewhere else and keep the fragile Gulf shorelines from becoming Miami. Fourth, the Gulf states have been hammered two years in a row now. It's about time mama nature cut 'em a break.

448. StormJunkie 23:35 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
Posted By: IKE at 11:12 PM GMT on July 14, 2006. True. It's a wonder he isn't banned. Once you learn that this is who ST is, he is entertaining at times. He does not know everything, contrary to what his mind says, and he will proove himself wrong. WARNING, I GURANTEE, THAT WITH OUT A DOUBT ST WILL BE HERE IN THE NEXT TWO WEEK WITH ANOTHER RANT. THAT IS WRITTEN IN STONE AS I HAVE TOLD YOU A GAZZILION TIMES. StormJunkie.com Models, imagery, marine data, wind data, and even some WU blogger Wilma video. Member Since: 17 août 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15218

449. SafeInTexas 23:36 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
�Some problems are so complex that you have to be highly intelligent and well informed just to be undecided about them.� Member Since: 19 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 57

450. Bamatracker 23:38 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
evening SJ! Member Since: 17 mai 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364

451. Alec 23:40 GMT le 14 juillet 2006
Bamatracker, you said you were Bamaweatherwatcher.....how did your handle change?

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