Gulf of Mexico disturbance; Ultramarathon today in Death Valley
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave and a weak trough of surface pressure is generating some intense thunderstorms with strong wind gusts over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. At 10am EDT, the winds at buoy 42002, 275 miles South-Southeast of Sabine, TX, recorded a wind gust of 50 mph. Sustained winds have been in the 25-30 mph range at this buoy the past few hours. The thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, but wind shear remains high, 15-25 knots, which is probably too high to allow a tropical depression to develop today. There was a hurricane hunter flight scheduled to take off at 11:30am today to investigate the disturbance, but it was cancelled. The disturbance shows no signs of a ciculation, as one can monitor via Brownsville, TX radar.
Both the GFS and NOGAPS models are forecasting the wind shear to fluctuate up and down through Wednesday, but probably remain above 15 knots. This amount of shear is likely too much for the disturbance to develop into a tropical depression. By Thursday, the wind shear is forecast to drop sharply, increasing the chances for development--if the disturbance hasn't moved over land by then. The disturbance is close to the Mexican coast, and may move ashore by Tuesday near the Texas/Mexico border. NHC has not scheduled a Hurricane Hunter flight for Tuesday.
Figure 1. Preliminary model forecast tracks for the area of disturbed weather in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.
New wave to watch
A large tropical wave with a surface circulation is near 14N 45W, 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The wave is moving west at 15 mph, and should reach the Lesser Antilles islands on Thursday. The wave has entered a region of low wind shear of 5-10 knots which is forecast to persist for the next three days, so some slow development is possible. The primary impediment will be dry air--the wave is surrounded by a huge cloud of African dust and dry air, and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal. A Hurricane Hunter airplane is tenatively scheduled to investigate the system on Thursday.
Figure 2. This morning's visible image of a tropical wave to watch 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.
More heat news
The heat continued to set records across the Southwest U.S. over the weekend. On Saturday, the mercury hit an unofficial 120 degrees in Usta, South Dakota, tying that state's all-time high temperature record. The record is expected to be certified by the National Climatic Data Center, according to the local National Weather Service office. The 95 degree low temperature yesterday at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport tied the second all-time warmest low temperature. The all-time warmest low temperature was 96 degrees, set on July 15, 2003.
OK, this is NUTS!
The high temperature in Death Valley reached 125 degrees both Saturday and Sunday, which should cheer up the competitors in today's Badwater Ultramarathon, billed as "the most demanding and extreme running race offered anywhere on the planet". The race starts out in Badwater, Death Valley (just down the road from Furnace Creek, Dante's Peak, and other hellishly named Death Valley attractions!). The competitors run non-stop for 135 miles and three days across Death Valley in the heat of day, across three mountain ranges with a combined vertical ascent of 13,000', and finish at 8,000 feet altitude on Mt. Whitney. Not recommended for the sane!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Inyo:
That is an upper level anticyclone you see spinning. Have a warm core low below it! They call them thermal lows instead of hurricanes.
neat... i take it that they may be caused by heat... not surprising since hte hottest temperatures in known history are occurring. It looked like it ran into an outflow boundary and triggered a thunderstorm in the desert. I wonder if it could cause some nocturnal convection
I have been through too many....have some of mine...please! People actually get pissed when you tell them it is "NOT" going to happen!"
OHHH RAND!!!! You NAILED it!!! There are people on here who WANT a storm to develop and hit them so they can get the attention and what little compassion they expect. Like the people in FL sometimes, they get down right pissed when you tell them that a storm isn't going to affect them.
Truth of it is, I'm a long way from TX so I could actually careless what happens, but I just want people to know that this is going to be a flood event.
VERY WELL SAID RAND, EXCELLENT ANALYSIS!!!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif
How could they know?
Cold blob, I love you so.
Easy now WX, most are not like that. Getting hit by 8 hurricanes in the past 2 seasons tends to bring them out of the woodwork.
Actually it was such flooding combined with allen that put me into MET.
This year, I made it there for Alberto and guess what the attitude was? Name song, second verse! I absolutely could not believe that the attitudes of Floridians was "Yay! Another storm, more media attention, more parties; BRING IT ON!"
I have a completely different view of Floridians after having seen that.
There were some genuinely concerned people, but this was the attitude of the majority of the people I spoke with.
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