Gulf of Mexico disturbance; Ultramarathon today in Death Valley
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave and a weak trough of surface pressure is generating some intense thunderstorms with strong wind gusts over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. At 10am EDT, the winds at buoy 42002, 275 miles South-Southeast of Sabine, TX, recorded a wind gust of 50 mph. Sustained winds have been in the 25-30 mph range at this buoy the past few hours. The thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, but wind shear remains high, 15-25 knots, which is probably too high to allow a tropical depression to develop today. There was a hurricane hunter flight scheduled to take off at 11:30am today to investigate the disturbance, but it was cancelled. The disturbance shows no signs of a ciculation, as one can monitor via Brownsville, TX radar.
Both the GFS and NOGAPS models are forecasting the wind shear to fluctuate up and down through Wednesday, but probably remain above 15 knots. This amount of shear is likely too much for the disturbance to develop into a tropical depression. By Thursday, the wind shear is forecast to drop sharply, increasing the chances for development--if the disturbance hasn't moved over land by then. The disturbance is close to the Mexican coast, and may move ashore by Tuesday near the Texas/Mexico border. NHC has not scheduled a Hurricane Hunter flight for Tuesday.
Figure 1. Preliminary model forecast tracks for the area of disturbed weather in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.
New wave to watch
A large tropical wave with a surface circulation is near 14N 45W, 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The wave is moving west at 15 mph, and should reach the Lesser Antilles islands on Thursday. The wave has entered a region of low wind shear of 5-10 knots which is forecast to persist for the next three days, so some slow development is possible. The primary impediment will be dry air--the wave is surrounded by a huge cloud of African dust and dry air, and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal. A Hurricane Hunter airplane is tenatively scheduled to investigate the system on Thursday.
Figure 2. This morning's visible image of a tropical wave to watch 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.
More heat news
The heat continued to set records across the Southwest U.S. over the weekend. On Saturday, the mercury hit an unofficial 120 degrees in Usta, South Dakota, tying that state's all-time high temperature record. The record is expected to be certified by the National Climatic Data Center, according to the local National Weather Service office. The 95 degree low temperature yesterday at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport tied the second all-time warmest low temperature. The all-time warmest low temperature was 96 degrees, set on July 15, 2003.
OK, this is NUTS!
The high temperature in Death Valley reached 125 degrees both Saturday and Sunday, which should cheer up the competitors in today's Badwater Ultramarathon, billed as "the most demanding and extreme running race offered anywhere on the planet". The race starts out in Badwater, Death Valley (just down the road from Furnace Creek, Dante's Peak, and other hellishly named Death Valley attractions!). The competitors run non-stop for 135 miles and three days across Death Valley in the heat of day, across three mountain ranges with a combined vertical ascent of 13,000', and finish at 8,000 feet altitude on Mt. Whitney. Not recommended for the sane!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I actually came up with something I'm testing... I load up a radar site and either set the alarm to coverage, intensity, or both... If the radar displays that limit, an alarm goes off (actually just loud beeps). Soooo, if say, the Gulf would fill in with deep convection, it would wake me up... it's actually kinda neat especially with squall lines because sometimes I don't want to wait up all night and by the time NOAA goes off, it's already on top of me!
Anyway, I'll probably let sleep come...
Looks quite out there today, but that wave needs to be watched if it can shake the dry air. Still only the CMC is trying to develop it, and due to the Candian model trying to develop everything, I won't give it much credit yet. The BOC still has an outside chance at making TD, but looks pretty unlikely.
ya'll have a great day
StormJunkie.com-Find the best free weather data on the web.
There are maps, satellite images, advisories, and my analysis about Tropical Storm Daniel which is threatening Hawaii, tropical storm Emilia, and Tropical Storm Kamei which is threatening China on hurricane warning.
This is for you!
Clicky!
Hehe. While I like to think I do have to much extra time, that link is dynamic, you can change the name to suit the occasion.
No way I can catch up on that . . .
What a persistent little storm!
The two ATL waves look like they persisted though, and it's getting to be that time (August, I mean). Also the GoM feature does look like it will bring rain, though I see some huge blowup of thunderstorms down by the LA coast. Hope it makes it on shore in TX!
Ya'll have fun. I'll be back tonight . . . .
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