Gulf of Mexico disturbance; Ultramarathon today in Death Valley
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave and a weak trough of surface pressure is generating some intense thunderstorms with strong wind gusts over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. At 10am EDT, the winds at buoy 42002, 275 miles South-Southeast of Sabine, TX, recorded a wind gust of 50 mph. Sustained winds have been in the 25-30 mph range at this buoy the past few hours. The thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, but wind shear remains high, 15-25 knots, which is probably too high to allow a tropical depression to develop today. There was a hurricane hunter flight scheduled to take off at 11:30am today to investigate the disturbance, but it was cancelled. The disturbance shows no signs of a ciculation, as one can monitor via Brownsville, TX radar.
Both the GFS and NOGAPS models are forecasting the wind shear to fluctuate up and down through Wednesday, but probably remain above 15 knots. This amount of shear is likely too much for the disturbance to develop into a tropical depression. By Thursday, the wind shear is forecast to drop sharply, increasing the chances for development--if the disturbance hasn't moved over land by then. The disturbance is close to the Mexican coast, and may move ashore by Tuesday near the Texas/Mexico border. NHC has not scheduled a Hurricane Hunter flight for Tuesday.
Figure 1. Preliminary model forecast tracks for the area of disturbed weather in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.
New wave to watch
A large tropical wave with a surface circulation is near 14N 45W, 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The wave is moving west at 15 mph, and should reach the Lesser Antilles islands on Thursday. The wave has entered a region of low wind shear of 5-10 knots which is forecast to persist for the next three days, so some slow development is possible. The primary impediment will be dry air--the wave is surrounded by a huge cloud of African dust and dry air, and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal. A Hurricane Hunter airplane is tenatively scheduled to investigate the system on Thursday.
Figure 2. This morning's visible image of a tropical wave to watch 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.
More heat news
The heat continued to set records across the Southwest U.S. over the weekend. On Saturday, the mercury hit an unofficial 120 degrees in Usta, South Dakota, tying that state's all-time high temperature record. The record is expected to be certified by the National Climatic Data Center, according to the local National Weather Service office. The 95 degree low temperature yesterday at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport tied the second all-time warmest low temperature. The all-time warmest low temperature was 96 degrees, set on July 15, 2003.
OK, this is NUTS!
The high temperature in Death Valley reached 125 degrees both Saturday and Sunday, which should cheer up the competitors in today's Badwater Ultramarathon, billed as "the most demanding and extreme running race offered anywhere on the planet". The race starts out in Badwater, Death Valley (just down the road from Furnace Creek, Dante's Peak, and other hellishly named Death Valley attractions!). The competitors run non-stop for 135 miles and three days across Death Valley in the heat of day, across three mountain ranges with a combined vertical ascent of 13,000', and finish at 8,000 feet altitude on Mt. Whitney. Not recommended for the sane!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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What is with most of the major models showing the high in the central atlantic completely disappearing?
I have seen it weaken and rebuild, but the models show something more extreme.
Most Models are displaying the storm riding along the coastline and is the most likely thing that is going to happen with it.
And with the Death Valley racing, that event always happens just about every year. Alot of people would say it is crazy (And cause of the way many people here in the USA are). But I dun think it is. Obviously the competitors or runners in that event have alot of guts to go through that landmass without fear of dying out there in the hot-dry sun. For everyone else, If you just have shade only on your head, and water always with you in hand, then you would not have to worry about heat-exhaustion out there. Unless you are completely out-of-shape.
A great experience, but running 135 miles in it is NUTS.
This is the one to watch...The MLC with the coldest cloud tops is right there and the nhc/navy puts there invest center right there. This system could develop quickly like Alison or other systems that have formed. In a north-northwest track is likely around the upper low...In which the other LLC to the south is under this upper low.
I give it a 50 percent chance of becoming tropical storm.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED JUST EAST OF LA PESCA
MEXICO IS MOVING NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...
AND NOAA BUOYS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE RECORDED
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES AND
SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT A SURFACE LOW IS FORMING NEAR TAMPICO IN
MEXICO.
This is the one to watch...The MLC with the coldest cloud tops is right there and the nhc/navy puts there invest center right there. This system could develop quickly like Alison or other systems that have formed. In a north-northwest track is likely around the upper low...In which the other LLC to the south is under this upper low.
I give it a 50 percent chance of becoming tropical storm.
IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 24N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW
IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N. THIS WAVE AND LOW REMAIN
WELL-DEFINED IN AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE SPIRALING ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SFC LOW AND AT THE BASE OF THE WAVE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 10N. THIS CENTRAL ATLC WAVE WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
TRACKS UNDER A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...BRINGING IT INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN THU
AND FRI.
However, if this were to remain offshore for say 36 hours, a TS Allison (1989 version) would not be impossible. It formed under similar conditions right on the coast
Here is a thumbnail of the pic i posted above.
WHXX01 KWBC 241826
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982006) ON 20060724 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060724 1800 060725 0600 060725 1800 060726 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.8N 97.9W 23.3N 98.1W 24.8N 98.0W 26.0N 98.0W
BAMM 21.8N 97.9W 23.6N 98.7W 25.2N 99.0W 26.4N 99.2W
A98E 21.8N 97.9W 22.8N 97.6W 23.9N 97.3W 25.2N 97.5W
LBAR 21.8N 97.9W 23.2N 98.3W 24.8N 98.9W 26.2N 99.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060726 1800 060727 1800 060728 1800 060729 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.2N 98.4W 29.5N 100.2W 30.7N 101.4W 31.3N 102.0W
BAMM 27.5N 99.5W 29.6N 101.1W 31.3N 102.6W 32.8N 103.2W
A98E 26.7N 98.0W 29.0N 99.5W 30.3N 100.3W 32.0N 98.4W
LBAR 27.4N 99.5W 29.4N 99.9W 31.9N 100.2W 35.6N 98.3W
SHIP 42KTS 50KTS 55KTS 52KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 97.9W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 20.9N LONM12 = 97.5W DIRM12 = 325DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 20.1N LONM24 = 96.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0N
On the other hand, if it were to develop into a cyclone, it would steer more toward the north toward HGX. Given that any circulation center is hugging the coast, will agree with models in that it will remain a strong wave and push more NW than more east.
Looks like a potential heavy rain event setting up for S and SC Texas particularly around the KSAT area... More this afternoon.
I'll tell you what I see, and you guys can correct me, ok?
I see what looks like individual storms, or smaller cells moving NW, but I see the system as a whole moving more due north.
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