John bears down on Baja; new threat in the Atlantic; new Dr. Gray forecast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 20:13 GMT le 01 septembre 2006

Share this Blog
0
+

Hurricane John is hours away from a strike on the southern tip of Baja as a borderline Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 958 mb, and top winds of 110 mph at the surface at about 10am PDT. John is expected to maintain this intensity up until landfall. John is a very small hurricane, and the exact point of landfall will make a critical difference on how much damage the storm does. A 50-mile wide section of the coast will experience hurricane force winds. Satellite animations of John's current track suggest it will move up the relatively sparsely populated east side of the Baja Peninsula, sparing the resort towns of Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo the worst of the eyewall's winds. Radar from Cabo is most impressive!


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Hurricane John from 1:45pm EDT Friday 9/1/06. Tropical Storm Kristy is also visible. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.

Given the small size of the hurricane, the impact on Baja is likely to severely disrupt the storm. A much weakened John should continue north along Baja, dumping copious amounts of rain along the way. John's rains may make it all the way to San Diego, but it would be a major surprise if the storm were a tropical depression by then.

NHC declares a new "invest" on African tropical wave
A tropical wave near 11N 39W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has developed a well-defined low level circulation today. There has been a moderate increase in the thunderstorm activity associated with this wave, and the NHC has just designated this wave as Invest 98L. The system is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is expected to be near the Lesser Antilles Islands Wednesday. Wind shear over the system is low, 5-10 knots, and the wave is over warm SSTs of 83-86F (28.5-30 C). Wind shear is forecast to remain low over the next few days, and the system has the potential to become a tropical depression by Sunday. The main inhibiting factor would seem to be the large area of dry air and African dust to the wave's north (have we heard that refrain before this season?) The SHIPS intensity model is very aggressive with this system, intensifying it to a hurricane by Tuesday. That's not going to happen, it takes a lot longer than that for disturbance to organize into a hurricane.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for Invest 98L. These models are described at the NHC web site.

Dr. Gray's September 1 forecast
The hurricane forecast team at Colorado State University headed by Phil Klotzback and Dr. Bill Gray issued their September forecast for Atlantic hurricane activity today. They predict 5 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes for September, which is about normal for that month. They predict an additional 2 named storms and one hurricane in October, and one named storm in November. This would give the hurricane season of 2006 total of 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 11 named storms and 6 hurricanes. They credited dry air from the Sahara and more El Nino-like conditions than expected for the lower than average hurricane activity observed in August. Prices of oil, natural gas, and heating oil futures fell on commodity markets by 1-3% on the news of the forecast. The Klotzbach/Gray team originally forecast that 17 named storms would form this year.

Ernesto
Ernesto, now a tropical depression, has dumped up to a foot of rain on North Carolina and Virginia. I'll have a summary of some lessons learned from tracking the storm in tomorrow's blog.

Typhoon Ioke
Typhoon Ioke is no longer a super typhoon, having fallen below the 150 mph winds threshold for that designation. It is, however, still a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds, and may stay a Cat 4 for three more days. However, its amazingly long run as an intense typhoon appear numbered--it's getting far enough north that a trough of low pressure should be able to grab it by Tuesday, weaken it, and pull it northwest towards Japan.

Some impressive satellite loops and 3-D images of Ioke passing Wake Island are available at the RTS Weather Station on Kwajelein Atoll.

Another wave to keep an eye on
The tropical wave near 16N 55W is surrounded by a large cloud of dry air and African dust, but has slowly been able to pump more moisture into its center each night over the past few days as thunderstorm development kicks up then dies away. The thunderstorm activity surrounding the wave has died away again this afternoon, but will probably pick up again tonight, during the normal nighttime peak in thunderstorm activity over the oceans. By Sunday, the wave may have enough moisture to develop. It should be in the Lesser Antilles Islands at that time.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 693 - 643

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

693. StoryOfTheHurricane
16:37 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
98L

99L
692. weathermanwannabe
14:47 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Morning All...99L is headed towards some considerable shear in about 24 hours so I agree that 98 may have a better chance at development in a few days, but, then again, we have seen several storms this year overcome this obstacle so all we can do is watch and wait over the next day or two....
Member Since: 8 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
691. Cavin Rawlins
14:37 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
99L Invest

Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
690. kmanislander
14:37 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
savannah

one would think that once the Cape Verde season starts to shut down that would also significantly reduce the dust, leaving the Caribbean and the ATL W of 50 pretty moist.
If the shear relaxes in the latter half of the season we might see more systems firing up closer to home. Not a pleasant thought because there would be less chance for a curve out to sea
Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
689. IKE
14:36 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
NEW BLOG.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
688. IKE
14:35 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Posted By: Randrewl at 9:30 AM CDT on September 02, 2006.
Really the most important thing I have learned on these waves is you can predict development. The only thing to do is wait.


What??


Think they meant to say...can NOT predict development.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
687. SavannahStorm
14:32 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
I remember from Dr. Gray's forecast that one of the reasons they originally predicted an active season was stronger-than-normal easterlies. However, I wonder if anyone has looked into the possibility of those strong easterlies kicking up all the Saharan dust that has been killing development this year.
Member Since: 22 septembre 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2343
686. kmanislander
14:31 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
I sure do hope that 99L does not hang on until the W Caribbean because if it does it could pose real problems, assuming by then the shear is gone.
Water temps are very high here and many a system has undergone explosive deepening in this area. Gilbert went from 120MPH after leaving Jamaica to 175 mph just W of the Caymans only 24 hrs later. Mitch was another that exploded to 180 mph in a matter of a couple of days.
What worries me a bit is that this has been such an UNPREDICTABLE season that now with the experts calling for a below average season to finish, might they be wrong again ??
Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
684. vortextrance
14:27 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
99L like most invests this year has to fight off dry air and shear. Most likely it will go the way of the previous disturbances and not develop. 98L has a much better chance imo. Really the most important thing I have learned on these waves is you can predict development. The only thing to do is wait.
Member Since: 5 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 700
683. benirica
14:23 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
99L, like alot of the storms weve had this year, is a fighter. It kept spinning all the way over from Africa and every day tried to get storms, even if the area was completely dry... if it just gets a little help from the shear, it will do something, its got the drive to keep going.
Member Since: 3 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
682. BrandonC
14:20 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Interesting a buoy near 99L reported wind speed of 27mph about 4 hours ago when the center of 99 was going over the top and a pressure that had dropped .05 in 1 hour...I think 99 does have a remote chance of doing something if the shear relaxes enough which is the tendency it is following currently..
681. benirica
14:19 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
StormJunkie... what are your two cents on what 98L should do? How do you think things will align for it? I live in Puerto Rico... what should I know?
Member Since: 3 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
680. StormJunkie
14:16 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
leftovers...Fish storm refers to a storm that affects no land mass....It churns up the fishies and nothing else.


The track for 98 should be governed by how storng the high to the N is and how soon it devlops and how strong it is. If the high weakens and the storm is a little stonger it will move to the N. If the high builds in to the W then it will also get forced to the W.
Member Since: 17 août 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
679. Fl30258713
14:08 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Shear map loop shows shear is decreasing to 99L west and looks as though it will be south of shear to north. Maybe shear to north will affect 99L some over next 24, but it doesn't look strong enough to me to rip 99L apart.
The shear is strongest behind 99L to ENE.
Member Since: 24 juillet 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 987
678. benirica
14:05 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
They dont like to actually predict on Trop Updates. Arent they meteorologists? Why do they just say what the NHC says and not give their own expertise a shot?
Very conservative... but I guess they have to do it, or else theyd cause people to go crazy and scared every time something has a shot of forming.
Member Since: 3 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
677. SavannahStorm
14:04 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
#3 does seem to have a rotation under the central blob of convection. And yes, it is the one the GFS has been aggressive with the last few days.
Member Since: 22 septembre 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2343
676. IKE
14:03 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Oops...I should have said...*98L*
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
675. IKE
14:03 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Posted By: benirica at 8:59 AM CDT on September 02, 2006.
Yeah, he said that too on that last Trop Update. Says 98L has good shot at developing and being a large system, atleast itll start off large. Didnt mention what he thought its track would be... what did he say now? Fish storm?


On 99L...didn't really say...just a movement WNW.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
674. sporteguy03
14:02 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
99L was a ship storm this morning as a ship was in it.
Member Since: 7 juillet 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
673. benirica
14:02 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
DOes wve #3 have rotation? It does look pretty good. Isnt this the wave that the GFS develops into a big thing in a few days? Actually, isnt this the wave theyve been saying was comming for a long time??
Member Since: 3 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
671. sporteguy03
13:59 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
98L, 99L Never as of right now until recon flys in.
Member Since: 7 juillet 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
670. benirica
13:59 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Yeah, he said that too on that last Trop Update. Says 98L has good shot at developing and being a large system, atleast itll start off large. Didnt mention what he thought its track would be... what did he say now? Fish storm?
Member Since: 3 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
669. SavannahStorm
13:59 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
My money's on wave #3, behind 99L and 98L. It's in a lower-shear, higher-moisture envronment, and has actually increased convection after sunrise (the opposite of what most waves do...)
Member Since: 22 septembre 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2343
668. StormJunkie
13:57 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Dr Lyons seems to be more interested in 98. Kind of wrote 99 off, which seems reasonable given the future shear 99 will face.

Member Since: 17 août 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
667. BrandonC
13:56 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
wow the ships model is very aggressive with both of these invests which I guess is normal however it has both of these at hurricanes in 96 hours....
666. IKE
13:54 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Steve Lyons...TWC...sure downplayed 99L...didn't say much about it.

Said 98L had a shot at developing and moving WNW.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
665. benirica
13:54 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Any thought on how soon we may have a TD out of any of these two? (If ever)
98L- 1 day? 2? never?
99L- 1 dat? 2? never?
Member Since: 3 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
664. sporteguy03
13:51 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Shear Rules!
Member Since: 7 juillet 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
663. BrandonC
13:50 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Morning guys this is the spaghetti for 98L with obviously little time to run the models it's partially incomplete...

SFWMD



This is the spaghetti for 99L and again partially incomplete...


SFWMD
662. benirica
13:50 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Is 98l another one of those, the later it develops the more it goes west? Or is it also a later it develops the less it will ever develop?
Member Since: 3 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
661. StormJunkie
13:46 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Morning all!

Been a little out of the loop the past couple of days, but it looks to me like 98, if it develops will be a fish storm, and 99 should get sheared apart?

Very interesting season so far, shear and dry air have been able to prevail, so I geuss the big question now is will we be lucky enough to have this persist for the rest of the season?
Member Since: 17 août 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
660. Cavin Rawlins
13:45 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Wind Shear Map
Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
659. ihave27windows
13:44 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Ok, I'm off....I have errands to run this morning.

Have a great morning everyone!
Member Since: 19 juillet 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14933
658. sandcrab39565
13:44 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Morning everyone, I see we have another invest.Well it is September after all. Hope they just frisk the fish.
Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
657. ihave27windows
13:43 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Ok, I'm off....I have errands to run this morning.

Have a great morning everyone!
Member Since: 19 juillet 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14933
656. docdavefl
13:42 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
The way the season has gone so far, I can't help but wonder if oil and gas price commodity trading is a better way of predicting storms...:)
655. Fl30258713
13:42 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds.htmlLink
Member Since: 24 juillet 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 987
654. IKE
13:41 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Barbados had a pressure of 29.80/1009mb earlier this morning.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
653. IKE
13:41 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Can someone post a link to a good wind shear map...

Thanks in advance.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
652. Cavin Rawlins
13:40 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Pressure Readings from near the islands:

Guadeloupe-1012.9
COOLIDGE, Antiqua - St. Kitts & Vicinity (TAPA)-1011.9
CANEFIELD, Dominica (TDCF)-1011.9
LE, Martinique Island (TFFF)-1010.8
Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
651. sporteguy03
13:39 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
So with all being said the Hurricane Hunters will investigate 99L......IF NECESSARY
Member Since: 7 juillet 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
650. Fl30258713
13:37 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
The shear to 99L's west side is decreasing and to its north is 10-15kts. What shear is to the north might help creat outflow.
I'm not an expert, but I don't see 99L having problem with developing over next 24-36 hours.
Member Since: 24 juillet 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 987
649. Cavin Rawlins
13:36 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Correction:

A westward moving tropical wave (99L) near 60W, accompanied by a 1009mbar low near 16N, 61W, will produce showers and T-Storms over some of the islands today and spread northward to Puerto Rico on Sunday. A ship headed for Antigua, north of the wave measure a pressure of 1012mbar and a NE wind of 15knots and two buoys behind the wave axis measured a pressures of 1010mbars and winds of 15 and 5knots, respectfully. There is some strong wind shear north of 99L, due to tight Upper Air wind gradient of the ULH and ULL. 99L is also embedded in are of dry air.
Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
648. ihave27windows
13:36 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Kman, you're right....and come to think of it, the storms we've had this year are the healthiest of the bunch....hostile conditions abound, so imagine if the conditions had been good or excellent.....scary.
Member Since: 19 juillet 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14933
646. kmanislander
13:36 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
java time
bb soon
Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
645. kmanislander
13:35 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
have a good one littlefish
no doubt we will be here when you return
Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
644. IKE
13:35 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Posted By: ihave27windows at 8:32 AM CDT on September 02, 2006.
You know, if we continue getting fronts through here, the upper Texas Coast, our hurricane season is over. Bad news for Florida though....sorry.


You're probably right and good morning.....
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
643. littlefish
13:33 GMT le 02 septembre 2006
Ya kman, like I said- LB would have to overcome windshear... Have a good one all, I'm off to go camping!
LB still has a chance! Maybe the western Carib...

Viewing: 693 - 643

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
26 ° F
Couvert

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron