Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Posted By: kylejourdan2006 at 6:13 PM EDT on September 26, 2006.
LOL I know Story! I'm just saying it needs to be watched, not that anything will develop. Remember - it's always better to be safe than sorry!

Well said, if you're going to get defensive or rude because you disagree with someone else's observation then you shouldn't be on this blog in the first place, especially if you make false observations like the pressure in the W. Caribbean isnt dropping..lol We're here to observe and discuss possibilities, nothing else, lets keep it civilized.

ok, jake let's take a longer-term view. over the last 23 hours, the pressure has INCREASED. is that long-term enough for you?

the center of circulation is over land

09 26 1950 E 17.5 21.4 5.2 6 4.4 ENE 29.92 -0.08 81.3 84.0 - - - -
09 26 1850 E 21.4 23.3 5.6 5 4.4 E 29.92 -0.08 81.0 83.8 - - - -
09 26 1750 ESE 21.4 23.3 5.2 6 4.3 E 29.95 -0.04 79.0 84.2 - - - -
09 26 1650 SE 21.4 25.3 3.9 5 4.2 ENE 30.00 +0.01


This is the last four hours, by the way.

jake, hit your refresh button. there is a 2050 observation up now. that is what i used.

wich track is the disturbance in western caribean taking look to me east

CHILL PILL TIME!!! Good Grief you folks...

who cares about 23 hours rwdobson?? in the past 6 hours it has dropped from 30.00 to 29.91, that is a descent drop

"who cares about 23 hours rwdobson?? "

jake told me to not to use short-term observations.

Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 6:19 PM EDT on September 26, 2006.
the center of circulation is over land

doesnt mean it will always be this way, WPB

short term would be like 2-3 hours, 6-12 hours is the time frame that is most significant to watch since this storm is still in a possible developmental phase, 24 hours is too much unless its already a developed system

jake told me to not to use short-term observations.

LOL true!!

what are yall gonna do in the Year of the El Nino 2007? Man, but 2008 yall will be watching every lil tiny itty bitty convection even over land....wait.....that is already happening....yall can hibernate next season, it is going to be way slower then this year with a strengthening El Nino.

well, no matter how you slice it, 29.91 is not a low pressure at all. right at normal. the pressure goes up and down all the time and it doesn't mean a tropical cyclone is developing.

and by the way, 12 hours ago, the pressure was 29.89...so over the last 12 hours, pressure has risen.

2050 29.91 -.04

If you would have read my post about ten minutes ago, I said it was low and rising yesterday, peaked out, and has been falling all day. Nobody has said anything different. Story stated nothing that wasn't fact, and you pounced on him with weak evidence. Then you embellished what he said by claiming he said "rapidly" rising pressure. He didn't state anything but the facts that he observed.

And like I said earlier, there was no blob when the pressures were lower yesterday. It takes more than just low pressure to make a potential invest. It also takes more than just convection to make a potential invest. But when it appears that both of those ingredients exost at the same time, there's nothing wrong with calling attention to it.

Posted By: MichaelSTL at 10:25 PM GMT on September 26, 2006.

09 26 1950 E 17.5 21.4 5.2 6 4.4 ENE 29.92 -0.08 81.3 84.0 - - - -
09 26 1850 E 21.4 23.3 5.6 5 4.4 E 29.92 -0.08 81.0 83.8 - - - -
09 26 1750 ESE 21.4 23.3 5.2 6 4.3 E 29.95 -0.04 79.0 84.2 - - - -
09 26 1650 SE 21.4 25.3 3.9 5 4.2 ENE 30.00 +0.01


This is the last four hours, by the way.

Actually, that is three hours: 1950 - 1650 = 300 (3 hours).


Micheal, don't embarass yourself. That is the latest 4 hourly reports, and actually, I didn't include 2050, which also dropped slightly.

The Carribean blob will be gone by am hrs on Wednesday. Just like the other blob, will vanish. The tops are already warming and the whole structure of the blob does not impress me.

eye is the thing in the carribean gonna develop??

nope, thats what i thought

you know, if you compare where the blob is and where the eddy's are/gulfstream location is you will notice that it is perched right on top of either the gulfstream or an eddy. Either way if it stays on that path and moves slow enough, something may form out of it. But all the convection with nothing to wrap around will do nothing but produce wind, rain, and waves.

no westcasting here

ok, story said winds were increasing "rapidly" and he didn't say pressures were falling rapidly. my mistake. you got me there. but the winds are not increasing rapidly, or at all, so he did say something that was not fact.

eye is exactly why I talk in private blogs with people who KNOW what they're talking about. It's so funny what kind of crap we talk on eye in them! LOL! Some of you may know what I mean if you've joined us!

Watch out - a lot of the people I talk to personally (jp, nash, etc.) in the private blogs agree with me that eye is one the biggest wishcasters!

eye, what division of NHC do you work for? thats what i thought.

the last El Nino was NOT followed by a strong La Nina, in fact, there hasnt been a strong La Nina in a long time.

And eye - El Nino won't last longer than spring. It's going to be a "weak to moderate" El Nino, and they typically last a few months.

Posted By: rwdobson at 6:31 PM EDT on September 26, 2006.
ok, story said winds were increasing "rapidly" and he didn't say pressures were falling rapidly. my mistake. you got me there. but the winds are not increasing rapidly, or at all, so he did say something that was not fact.

I said the winds were increasing SIGNIFICANTLY. they have increased 10 kts from yesterday, in my book, that is significant

eye, its just a wave on top of an eddy. there is basically no structure whatsoever to it. If anything its just a rainmaker for the central america area. Beyond that i see nothing. As for the blowup off of florida, it appears to be an old cold front coming back as a warm front and running into a cold/warm air mass divergence. As of 96L, I do not see anyway that it could move towards the US. There is an upper level low to the west of it providing the shear and providing the stearing motion. If it were to move towards the US it would encounter colder waters and would most likely dissapate.

kyle, actually my friend, i have called every storm a fish(besides of course Ernesto, the ones that have formed around the Cape Verdes this year, FISH as in no threat to the USA), while you try to wishcast them to the USA...I call them way way in advance while you say "it is tooooooooooooooooooo early" when it is pretty obvious what it will do.

Lets see if your storm dissipates by the am hrs.....is the name of the blog "WishcastersRus"?

1650-1950 is 3 hours

1650-1750 1 hours
1750-1850 2 hours
1850-1950 hmm...3 hours

EYE - I am really impressed!...Not only do you know whats gonna happen in the next 2 years... you know what everyones thinking too. Just amazing. Tell us more.

Michael, what about the small amount of convection to the east of the Lesser Antilles and to the southwest of 96L? Does that appear to be trying to develop or is just another wave?

i do have to agree with eye on the fish storm

IAD, i guess you didnt read Dr Ms blog awhile back, saying that El Nino tends to last longer and will most likely affect next season too, this was before it has grown even stronger. Also, a strong La Nina did not follow the last strong El Nino, in fact, the La Ninas that have formed have been weak.

Eye- Otherwise known as the Magical 8 Ball

Look at this graphic. In October tropical systems can develop in that general area where that wave is. Although it's not October yet, the conditions don't just change automatically for each month, so that wave MIGHT have a chance. First we'll need to see a definitive swirl (low) and some more significant pressure drops. Yet, any pressure drop in the Caribbean with a wave like that needs to be monitored (keeping Wilma in mind)...

eye - Then you were wrong of the fish storms. Only Gordon and Helene were fish storms, all others affected land. That's a sign of an inconsiderate jerk who thinks the U.S. is the only important land mass of the world.

prediction: the blow up will blow down just as fast, just like the blob did 2 days ago N of Panama....everybody jumped all over it too.

Only Gordon and Helene were fish storms

Actually Gordon and Helene affected Europe

Debby was the only fish storm

well theres nothing wrong with jumping on a blob in a weather blog, i mean, blobs are one of the number one signs of potential development other than circulation, are they not?

Thank you EYE - Is there more we need to know - do you see more that we need to be aware of. If you could give me the next year of possible bad weather - I wouldnt have to worry about the weather at all. What about rain, what areas of the country do you see getting rain over the next year or so. Might if you could help me out with forecast - Wait - Eye, all seeing - I get it now.

Oh - never mind - I think I'll listen to all sides watch for myself.

Kyle, like i said, I call Fish storms storms that dont affect the USA. I have said that many times, you can be "politically correct" all you want.

WPB - I use "fish storm" when referring to tropical systems, as I know Gordon and Helene affected Europe (my mom's entire family lives in Europe, and we visit often), but Debby affected the Cape Verdes as a tropical system, so she was not a fish storm.