96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.
Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.
Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.
F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS
it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Reader Comments
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Quickscat of Caribbean blob earlier today. Good bit of 30-35kt vectors, a 40 & a 45kts one as well.
Near surface winds(1000mb) on a true color composite map. I think that with the winds was what was going on around 12Z as per the NOGAPS.. notice the bend in the flow.
Still dodging the occational storm here...most impressive was one that produced 2.85" in one hour...The lettuse in the garden told a tale of being pumbled by pea size hail. I'm not a fan of freeze damage in September.
bbl
Okay, I'll stop now.
Link
good night all
whatcha seeing?
Glad they won, glad u had a good time.
it looks like we gonna get plenty water
Thanks..heres a pic Linkfrom ISS of Ioke.I brlieve
Ivan, actually.
..Eyewall..from aboveLink
Isabel.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING IS IN THE
WRN PORTION AROUND 80W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 78W-83W...WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA. THIS SEEMS
MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A WELL DEFINED
UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N74W AND UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISORGANIZED...AND SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE
REGION NOT FALLING. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. TRADES
CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ON THE SW PORTION OF THE ATLC
HIGH AND ITS INTERACTION WITH LOWER PRESSURE NEAR COLOMBIA.
SIMILAR TRADES EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
: )
Link
well the Caribbean blob is doing what most blobs do, blow up fade away then blow up again.
After a peiod of warming clouds tops and high cloud debris deep convection is starting to refire near 13N 80W.
This may happen several more times with no development beyond that occurring or, as may also happen, you get some staying power with the convection which brings pressures down and a system starts to spin up.
Not much to do with this one other than watch it for the next 24 to 36 hrs, if it lasts that long
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