Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Winter forecast

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:47 GMT le 15 novembre 2006

Hello, Aaron here. Dr. Masters is on vacation and has taken an oath NOT to blog while out. He did leave some blogs for me to post periodically during that time. Here's the first one:

This Fall's ongoing El Ni�o event shows no signs of going away, and may grow stronger, according to the latest El Ni�o advisory issued last week by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The strength of an El Ni�o event is measured by how far above average the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in a region near the Equator off the Pacific coast of South America are. These SSTs are about 1 degree C above normal right now, qualifying this as a moderate El Ni�o event. A weak El Ni�o event has SSTs .5 degrees C above normal, and a strong one, 2 degrees C above normal. The strongest El Ni�o on record, in 1997, had SSTs 2.5 degrees C above normal.

The SSTs in the El Ni�o region are forecast to remain between .5 C and 2.0 C above normal through springtime by all of the El Ni�o models, so we can expect typical El Ni�o weather throughout this winter. This likely means warmer than average temperatures over western and central Canada, and over the western and northern United States. Wetter than average conditions can be expected over portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, and drier than average conditions in the Ohio Valley and the Pacific Northwest. Global effects during November through March will likely include drier than average weather over Malaysia, Indonesia, the tropical North Pacific, northern South America, and southeastern Africa, and wetter than average conditions over equatorial East Africa, central South America (Uruguay, northeastern Argentina, and southern Brazil) and along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru.

It was a surprise to me to look at the global temperature forecast for the winter (Figure 1) and see NO areas with an above average chance to be cooler than normal. Usually, there is at least one region of the globe expected to be on the cool side of things. If this forecast verifies, 2006 should rank as one of the five warmest years on record, and may challenge 1997 and 2005 as the warmest year on record.

Figure 1. This winter's temperature forecast for the world from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

Figure 2. This winter's precipitation forecast for the world from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Winter Weather

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101. nash28 20:50 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
IT IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING!!!!! Not everything revolves around global warming!!! This is getting silly! There are other blogs for this man!!!! Use your own blog for those that are interested in the theories... Member Since: 11 juillet 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

105. emtkz 20:55 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
MichaelSTL here is a Tsunami report generated in response to the Japan earthquake: TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 004 PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 1458Z 15 NOV 2006 THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC BASIN EXCEPT ALASKA - BRITISH COLUMBIA - WASHINGTON - OREGON - CALIFORNIA. ... TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH CANCELLATION ... THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE CANCELLED FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS AND ISLANDS IN THE PACIFIC OUTSIDE OF ALASKA - BRITISH COLOMBIA - WASHINGTON - OREGON - CALIFORNIA. THOSE AREAS SHOULD REFER TO MESSAGES FROM THE WEST COAST AND ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER. AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME - 1114Z 15 NOV 2006 COORDINATES - 46.7 NORTH 153.5 EAST LOCATION - KURIL ISLANDS MAGNITUDE - 8.1 MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER ------------------- ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- HANASAKI HOKKAIDO 43.3N 145.6E 1243Z 0.30M 64MIN KUSHIRO HOKKAIDO 43.0N 144.3E - 0.25M - SHEMYA ALASKA 0.20M - AMCHITKA ALASKA 0.08M - TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT AMPL - AMPLITUDE IN METERS FROM MIDDLE TO CREST OR MIDDLE TO TROUGH OR HALF OF THE CREST TO TROUGH PER - PERIOD OF TIME FROM ONE WAVE CREST TO THE NEXT EVALUATION SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. FOR THOSE AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES. NO TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS IN THE PACIFIC ALTHOUGH SOME OTHER AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SMALL SEA LEVEL CHANGES. FOR ALL AREAS THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND TSUNAMI WATCH ARE CANCELLED. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ALSO ISSUE TSUNAMI MESSAGES FOR THIS EVENT TO COUNTRIES IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND SOUTH CHINA SEA REGION. IN CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION... THE MORE CONSERVATIVE INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY. THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE BULLETINS FOR ALASKA - BRITISH COLUMBIA - WASHINGTON - OREGON - CALIFORNIA.

106. nash28 20:56 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
It's called weather... Plain and simple... It is not something we need to get intellectual about or look to "stopping". You cannot stop Mother Nature. These massive hurricanes and snowstorms and severe weather have been going on while the planet was much cooler. This is nothing new. It has been going on since dirt, so I don't understand why we now have to blame ourselves for natural forces.... Doesn't make sense... Member Since: 11 juillet 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

108. melwerle 20:56 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
Hey y'all - I'm sitting here right outside of Savannah (a bit south by 1/2 hour or so) and keep hearing about this storm that's headed east...does it look like it's going to hit this way or pass us? Thanks, Melissa Member Since: 28 juin 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

109. nash28 20:58 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
Dude, you have to be kidding right??? Is everything a product of global warming??? Again, how many years have earthquakes been happening??? Thousands.... And earthquakes back in the 1500 BC era were much stronger than the modern day. It's just life, that's it. Member Since: 11 juillet 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

111. excusememiss 20:59 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
CB- you are by far the most obnoxious person on a blog I have ever encountered- and I am surfing blogs frequently. The type of discussion you are trying to provoke really would be more appropriate on a private blog. Take it there. And quit pretending like you invented the damn tunnels- you didn't! And that's not even getting into the discussion of how environmentally RECKLESS that IDEA (not reality- just a hairbrained idea) truly is. ASSHAT! and for Mr. Puerto Rico that was complaining abot Project HAARP: stop buying into conspiracy theories. Read about it, and learn about it. Here is a small excerpt from a non-sensationalistic source (Wikiepdia): "The intensity of the HF signal in the ionosphere is less than 3 �W/cm�, tens of thousands of times less than the Sun's natural electromagnetic radiation reaching the earth and hundreds of times less than even the normal random variations in intensity of the Sun's natural ultraviolet (UV) energy which creates the ionosphere. "

113. nash28 21:01 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
You cannot control it. It is not SUV's, smoke stacks, oil rigs, hairspray, footsteps, passing gas, etc... that is "aiding" these major storms.... Too many people do not realize that we are measly little specks of matter compared to the force of Mother Nature.... Not a damn thing you can do to alter tornado formation, cold front dynamics, hurricane strength, seismic activity, etc.... You simply cannot, no tunnels, no wishes, no super duper foam to dump in a hurricane, nothing.... Member Since: 11 juillet 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

115. nash28 21:07 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
Oh geez.... I hope Saddle and family are ok. I am praying VERY HARD!!!!!! Member Since: 11 juillet 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

117. lightning10 21:09 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
Well I live in So Cal and El Nino has not came yet. Hasnt rained since July. Temps have been very Warm this November. I beleave like in the winter of 2004 things where very day tell the day after christmas then after that things went crazzy with something like 14 days in a row of rain. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 629

119. Trouper415 21:11 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
Nash, What did you think when they first announced that humans were burning a whole through our atmosphere from the cloral floral carbons? You thought it was BS like a majority of the general public and scientific community, right? Member Since: 22 septembre 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637

121. excusememiss 21:13 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
HAHA! Of course they don't have models to test a fantastic idea that resonates sci-fi and fantasy. Once again- you are ruining the main forum. If that is all you care to talk about- take it to a private blog. Or please feel free to email me the specifics on your idea and I will offer my questions privately.

122. excusememiss 21:14 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
I can't believe it! Did you know that exclamation points might be the most obnoxious thing to over use?! Can you believe it?! I thought it made my comments seem more important! Like CAPSLOCK! Right?!?!

123. nash28 21:16 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
No Trouper, I did not and DO NOT believe it is BS that we, ALL OF US, not just the U.S., has harmed the ozone layer. That is obvious... What I am railing against is this radical, pie in the sky and completely asinine idea that WE, homosapiens are all of a sudden going to be able to control the severity of weather, or the formation of storms altogether. It is horsesht. It is the latest cause-celeb item. It is political mung. It cannot happen. You cannot control weather!!! Now, can we control how clean our air is?? Absolutely... But trying to control Mother Nature is just ridiculous!!! We are so small compared to acts of God. Member Since:* 11 juillet 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

125. nash28 21:17 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
Oh, well excuse me.... Some elitest should get credit because he TOO, has his head up his ass.... C'mon.... YOU CANNOT CONTROL WEATHER!!!!!!!!!! HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO SAY THIS???? Member Since: 11 juillet 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

126. emtkz 21:18 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2214 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CST WED NOV 15 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 858... VALID 151848Z - 151945Z THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE AL AND EXPAND EWD INTO SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT ROTATING STORMS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW IN NW MS WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS LOCATED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE FALL CENTER IN SE AL ATTM. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FALL CENTER AND IS LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF A 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. WSR-88D VWPS JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE DOTHAM AREA OF FAR SE AL SHOW IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT AND 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 500 M2/S2. THIS SUGGESTS TORNADOES WILL BE VERY LIKELY WITH ROTATING STORMS AS THE LINE MOVES EWD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO SW GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT ROTATING SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 11/15/2006 Link Link

127. melwerle 21:18 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
Ok - guess the question is out the window due to this argument...have a nice day - I'll get in touch with Storm. Later. Member Since: 28 juin 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

128. emtkz 21:20 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
Melwerle- my previous post is in response to your question

130. hurricane23 21:21 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
Good afternoon, Sergio seems to have begun to weaken as the over all organization of the system is looking ragged this afternoon. Here is a pic i saved from a few hours ago when then eye was more symetrical. Member Since: 14 mai 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276

131. nash28 21:24 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
No Cyclone, you are refusing to realize that neither you nor anyone else is going to be able to devise anything to stop or curb the strength of hurricanes.... You're ambitious, I'll give you that. But place that ambition somewhere where it will ACTUALLY have a realistic difference.... Can't stop storms, not possible. Member Since: 11 juillet 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

133. CybrTeddy 21:26 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
hurricane23 the eye is still organized but gotton smaller. You must look at the eye closer. No offence though your a great weather forcaster. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20236

136. nash28 21:28 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
Cyclone, I do not want to do this all night.... It is the sun. The radiation from the sun. These cycles have been happening since before atmospheric records were kept, which is certainly long before we were driving and emmiting the crap that we do into the atmosphere... This is NOT new. Accept it... Bad storms happen. REALLY HORRIFIC storms happen once a blue moon, but when they do, just get out of the way. It is not a reason to say, "hey, if we would stop warming the planet, then major hurricanes will not become major." Just doesn't compute... Hurricanes will form from now until the end of time.. They will be as strong as atmospheric conditions will allow. Our emmisions are not causing stronger storms or a 1c rise in the ocean temp. It is the sun. Member Since: 11 juillet 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

138. hurricane23 21:28 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
CybrTeddy thats correct...Here is a shot at this very small eye with sergio. Member Since: 14 mai 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276

139. nash28 21:30 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MAKING THEM STRONGER!!!! For the love of Christ!!!! Have you read what I have been saying to you??? This is NOT a human issue!!!!! Has been going on before man could WALK UPRIGHT!!!! So how is it our fault??? Member Since: 11 juillet 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

140. 1900hurricane 21:30 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
Hello! Sure is active in here today! I like it! : ) Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10359

141. nash28 21:31 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
Uh, CB, Michael is not endorsing you here... All he said was that the water is warmer this year in the Pacific.... Has nothing to do with human beings.... Member Since: 11 juillet 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

144. 1900hurricane 21:34 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
I am guessing that the possible tsunami from this morning didn't happen. Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10359

146. hurricane23 21:34 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
Haveing said that cyberteddy sergio looks more ragged to me. Member Since: 14 mai 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276

148. 1900hurricane 21:36 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
When was the last time anyone has seen a map like this? Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10359

149. Inyo 21:37 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
Um, some of the stuff Cyclone is associating with global warming is ridiculous... no one has EVER shown a link between weather and earthquakes, and if you dont believe me, go ask 10 people in California about 'earthquake weather', each person will give a different answer as to what it is. there is no such thing as earthquake weather. Floods have always happened and always will, at least for the next 5 billion years until the sun explodes and boils off the oceans. However, i do believe that we have an effect on the climate and are able to make it worse. I agree that we are small and individually have little influence on things, however there are 5 billion of us, I feel that all the stuff we burn DOES have an effect on things. Not as dramatic as what CB says, but i still feel that it is significant. However, I don't think we can stop hurricanes, move the jet stream, etc, or do anything else like that in the short term other than cloud seeding which has limited effects. If i am wrong and George Bush is controlling the weather, he is probably reading this too, can you send some rain to so-cal? I think we are to the weather as a bee is to a bull. There is no way a bee can control a bull and cause it to do the bee's bidding. However, the bee could certainly sting the bull in the nose and cause it to charge. In this case, i think the 'bull' is the earth's climate and our 'stinging' could realistically cause storms and other extreme weather to become more intense. Member Since: 3 septembre 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 765

151. 1900hurricane 21:39 GMT le 15 novembre 2006
That is definately good news! Thanks cyclonebuster. Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10359

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