Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Skye,

I looked at that. Doesn't really move Sward, does it? Interesting abt. the U level divergance, obviously a key player in the current severe threat. I guess we'd need to see a similar level of instability in the SW Car to have any development along the lines of the CMC forecast . . .

weather.com has an interesting new ineractive map they are beta-testing . . .

Just got back from the Concert - Did I miss anything. Front/ Line will be here soon. Find the Lightning, find the tornadoes - if any.

I know someone who lives in the heart of Bradenton, Florida. They are going to get pounded in the next 35 minutes. I am going to try to call here after the storms pass. If I get in contact with her then I will pass any news on.

The map is available on the home page of weather.com if u want 2 check it out.

Holy *****!!!!! NASH ARE U TEHRE!!! OMG!!
IM ABOUT TO BE SLAMED BY SUPER CELL TORNATIC
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ALREADY A REPORTING OF A FUNNEL CLOUD!

latest on Sergio:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160235
TCDEP1
HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
700 PM PST WED NOV 15 2006

AFTER LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLIER TODAY...SERGIO'S SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED RAPIDLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE EYE IS NO LONGER PRESENT AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME INCREASINGLY ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHETHER THIS IS A TEMPORARY FLUCTUATION OR THE
BEGINNING OF A LONGER-TERM WEAKENING TREND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 90 KT IN LINE WITH AN AVERAGE OF THE
AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
UW-CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING AS PREVIOUSLY SHOWN BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA HAS NOT CLOSED OFF AND THE WEAK RIDGE HAS NOT YET
FORMED OVER MEXICO. INSTEAD...A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AS A
RESULT...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS NOW BEARING DOWN ON THE
CYCLONE...AND MAY ALREADY BE AFFECTING IT. NONETHELESS...THE GFDL
MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW SERGIO STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO THIS INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SINCE ANY APPRECIABLE
NORTHWARD MOTION WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE INTO A SEEMINGLY HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT...THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO. INSTEAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL AND CALLS FOR NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE
BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND A DRY/STABLE AIR
AIRMASS.

SERGIO HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTING A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/4. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
LARGE-SCALE STEERING PATTERN IS COMPLEX...RESULTING IN QUITE A BIT
OF SPREAD AMONG THE AVAILABLE TRACK MODELS. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
IS FLANKED ON THE EAST SIDE BY THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS WHICH
SHOW SERGIO CLIPPING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND NOW THE ECMWF MODEL
SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
SERGIO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THUS TURN NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND MEDIUM BAM MODEL. WHILE IT IS MUCH TOO
SOON TO SAY WHETHER SERGIO WILL OR WILL NOT AFFECT MEXICO...
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR THE HISTORICALLY CURIOUS...SERGIO IS THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC BASIN HURRICANE ON RECORD FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 12.3N 103.2W 90 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 12.7N 103.1W 90 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 103.3W 90 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 14.6N 103.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 15.9N 104.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 18.0N 106.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 19.5N 107.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 21.0N 109.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

checking in from Savannah and waiting for what is supposed to be coming this way...anyone wanna give me a head's up? Still no rain, little lightning, no thunder...

Sergio is back... check the tiny pin hole!!!

Severe Warnings pageLink

Savannah storms ..tops to 35,000ft.moving east quickly.

so ya think this might just blow in and blow out quickly? Not much?

g'night, all.

weather station has us at 2959 and dropping (1002) but it's been lower than that before so I'm not sure whether that actually means anything...

One more comment:

you do realize that the trough disrupting Sergio is the same one driving the severe weather in the SE US. So in a way, GA / FL etc. are seeing some of Sergio tonight......

I'm staying up for it. I think orlando should see the worst around 2:00 AM.

uh oh...here comes the wind...and RAIN (HEAVY HEAVY RAIN) and power is flickering...

I think I'm with you Borlando but I think I may have to log off as the power is having a hard time staying on....looks like it's going to go out eventually...time to bust out the candles!

yea, I'm gonna go for a walk or maybe a short bike ride. enjoy this night air :)

have a blast StSimons - we are getting some of it now!

I'm logging off too - tstorms are starting. Funny thing though - checking out my weather station and it says it is SUNNY out now. This thing is smokin crack...night y'all - have a good one.

I have a good hour for anything decent.

Thought you all might be interested in this. Higher tides being created from Earthquake that hit Japan. Here's the info from weather channel update:

Earthquake

line broke up.

looks like florida is getting hit hard

Good lord man!!!! Driving into work this morning was like driving through a strong TS!!!

Winds were sustained at 50mph in Hillsborough County.

nah

A tornado has killed at least five people in North Carolina. Terrible..

Now Fox News is reporting 8 dead from a tornado.

Tornados reported in Regalwood and Whiteville, NC - five confirmed deaths

What are the models forecasting for the carribean?

Question...on the model maps, is 5400 generally the freezing line?

Models have backed off on anything forming in the western Caribbean...but a mother lode of cold air will bring freezing temps to Northern Florida at night, probably Monday/Tuesday night.

Per CNN.." The Associated Press quoted officials saying as many as nine people died."....from todays tornadoes.

local radio now reporting 9 dead in Regalwood, 3 in the hospital...

Expires 6:00 PM EST on November 16, 2006
urgent - immediate broadcast requested
Tornado Watch number 868
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 am EST Thu Nov 16 2006

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Tornado Watch for portions of

District of Columbia
Delaware
much of Maryland
eastern North Carolina
southern and central New Jersey
southeast Pennsylvania
much of eastern Virginia
coastal waters

Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1045 am until
600 PM EST.

Tornadoes... hail to 1.5 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind
gusts to 80 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these
areas.

GFS is showing a rather potent storm system crossing the florida peninsula next week.

This paragraph explains it best Leftover

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF WATERS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. IS SET TO HELP TO
RE-ENERGIZE THE ALREADY EXISTING WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.
THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FLORIDA COMPLETELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. GET READY FOR THE FRONT TO HIT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AT
THAT TIME. THE ORGANIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS BECOME
STRUNG OUT WITH MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CENTERS FROM 28N TO 33N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

What he means by "Get Ready", is a mystery.

Maybe that is what he means by get ready?