Super typhoon Durian aims for the Philippines; rare tornado hits Wales

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:48 GMT le 29 novembre 2006

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Super Typhoon Durian put on a very impressive burst of rapid intensification today, and is now a large and very dangerous Category 4 storm headed towards the Philippines. Durian (named for a tropical fruit) is on track to make landfall on the main island of Luzon later today and pass over the island Thursday. Winds at Catanduanes and Daet, the first major cities that will be hit, had increased to 20 mph at 1am local time Thursday, and will steadily pick up. Durian is in an environment of weak vertical wind shear, warm ocean waters, and favorable upper-level outflow. In the past 24 hours, the storm has intensified from a Category 1 typhoon with winds of 85 mph to a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds and a central pressure of 916 mb. Durian has a good chance of intensifying into a Category 5 super typhoon later today, before interaction with land and passage over Luzon start to weaken the storm. Unfortunately, Durian is expected to slow down as it passes over the Philippines, and may pass near the heavily populated capital city of Manila, a city of 12 million. The slow motion will make Durian a prodigious rainmaker, and NOAA's Satellite Analysis Branch is predicting rain amounts of up to eight inches in 24 hours (Figure 2). Heavy rains that trigger flash floods and mudslides are the primary hazards of typhoons in the Philippines, and we can expect damage and loss of life similar to what devastating Typhoon Xangsane did to the islands on September 27. Xangsane, a Category 4 typhoon that passed over Manilla, killed 218, did over $100 million in damage, and left tens of thousands homeless. The Philippines have raised its highest alert level, and are moving coastal residents out where a storm surge of up to 15 feet is expected. Schools have been cancelled today and all sea travel suspended.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Durian from NOAA.

The Philippines have been hit particularly hard this typhoon season, and Durian will be the 4th major typhoon to wallop the island in the past three months. Typhoon Chebi hit Luzon as a Category 3 typhoon on November 11, but hit the less populated northern portion of the island and moved quickly enough that heavy rains and flooding caused relatively little damage. Super Typhoon Cimaron made landfall October 29 as a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 160-180 mph. Cimaron killed at least 27, destroyed 2600 homes, and damaged another 18,000.


Figure 2. Latest precipitation forecast for a 24-hour period from NOAA's Satellite Analysis Branch.

Tornado hits Wales
A rare tornado hit Wales in the British Islands yesterday, according to news reports from the BBC. The small tornado, which hit at 1:30 am local time, damaged 20 homes. Tornadoes are rare in the British Islands due to the lack of cold, dry continental air needed to generate severe thunderstorms. Here's the weather discussion put out by the UK Met office before the tornado:


CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION issued at 1045 GMT on Tuesday 28th November 2006 Valid from/until: 1045 - 2359 GMT on Tuesday 28th November for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Coastal areas of Wales SW England Southern coastal counties of England Channel Islands

SYNOPSIS: Large upper trough/cold pool is approaching from the west. Cold advection aloft/synoptic lift will cause instability to increase with CAPE values of 2-300 J/Kg expected, with LIs down to -2C or so. Flow is rather unidirectional, and low-level/deep layer shear are not large. However, just ahead of the trough, some increase is 850 hPa winds are forecast by some mesoscale models, especially across northern parts of Wales early-mid afternoon.

THREATS: Heavy showers/a few thunderstorms are expected to affect the areas this afternoon and evening, with the risk shifting east over time. The main effects of these will be hail 15-20mm diameter, gusty winds, briefly torrential rain and a few cloud-ground lightning strikes. However, there is a small risk of tornadic development, especially across northern parts of Wales early-mid afternoon, as 850 hPa wind max moves through. Elsewhere, the risk is lower, but still there. Overall though, the risk is deemed too low for a WATCH to be issued.


Jeff Masters

TORRNOADO ALERT IN BRITAIN (richie123098)
over the past week Britain had been hit with servre Storms and flooding and very high windsi got some pictures of a tornado in a west Wales village which struck last niteTornado warnings are in affect in South Wales, West Wales and south west England today
TORRNOADO ALERT IN BRITAIN

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493. Melagoo
2:56 AM GMT on November 30, 2006
Nice view from space ...
Durian
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492. Wishcasterboy
2:55 AM GMT on November 30, 2006
Hi Ryan, long time no see!
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491. Wishcasterboy
2:49 AM GMT on November 30, 2006
Pain is usually not funny for the person experiencing it. It is strange though whenever I take a shot bellow the belt, I will fall to the ground laughing uncontrollably, yes it is very painful, but it's like some sort of chain reaction! I don't know maybe somethings horribly wrong with me! LOL
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490. Patrap
8:54 PM CST on November 29, 2006
BAD track for Manila..Ouch.
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489. sandcrab39565
8:54 PM CST on November 29, 2006
Thanks Skye I did it helps
Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
488. Skyepony (Mod)
2:53 AM GMT on November 30, 2006
You'll need to use the zoom tool on that.
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487. Skyepony (Mod)
2:44 AM GMT on November 30, 2006
Check out the Weather Underground interactive map forecasted track, goes south of Manila...between it & the Yaught Club.
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486. ryang
2:49 AM GMT on November 30, 2006
Hi Wishcasterboy.
Member Since: 25 août 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12413
484. Patrap
8:49 PM CST on November 29, 2006
Ivans local landfall loop showing crabs words in Motion...Link
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483. Wishcasterboy
2:47 AM GMT on November 30, 2006
Ooow! If I were you I wouldn't be laughing!
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482. sandcrab39565
8:47 PM CST on November 29, 2006
LOL ok I see Pat
Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
481. Patrap
8:45 PM CST on November 29, 2006
They wanted to do the arthoscopic take a peek.But then they said they needed more views.Sounds like a Shoulder invest to me I said.They were lost..LOL
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480. sandcrab39565
8:44 PM CST on November 29, 2006
23, I again refer to Ivan it drew dry air into it just prior to land fall and all it did was save my area the NE quad was not diluted at all due to its proximity to land at landfall I see the same or similar pattern here.
Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
479. Wishcasterboy
2:45 AM GMT on November 30, 2006
The eyewall replacement cycle is complete.
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478. Patrap
8:43 PM CST on November 29, 2006
Myles was refering to my Hammer posting sand..LOL.Every time I see the CB post that nonsense.I drop the Hammer.That usually invokes a backlash response too.
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477. Wishcasterboy
2:43 AM GMT on November 30, 2006
I have no idea what you just said Pat, but it sounds like fun!
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476. hurricane23
9:34 PM EST on November 29, 2006
HurricaneMyles it might be a break in the clouds but the overall symmetry with the cyclone has once again improved.Having said that if you look at watervapor imagery you can already see the beginings of the dry air that will hopefully soon start to wrap into the system.
Member Since: 14 mai 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
475. sandcrab39565
8:41 PM CST on November 29, 2006
Agreed but it also has by jogging south allowed itself to get into warmer sst and will probably wind a bit tighter prior to landfall. Open eyes are not a sighn of strength in some cases take a good look on the vis at the eyewall cloud structure. Look close and you will see inner banding very close to the center this is not good for a land falling system.
Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
474. Patrap
8:41 PM CST on November 29, 2006
Wish it was sand.But they gave me some Pain meds for the shoulder till they do next MRI...Ugh!..Hate those machines..plus I get a Contrast medium this time.O Joy!..LOL
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473. HurricaneMyles
2:38 AM GMT on November 30, 2006
sandcrab...How about land that now surrounds it on 3 sides? Dont get me wrong, its trying to clear out the eye, and it just may do it, but proximity to land makes it uncertian.
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472. sandcrab39565
8:40 PM CST on November 29, 2006
Later Steve thanks for the info
Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
471. SteveDa1
9:38 PM EST on November 29, 2006
BBL
Member Since: 17 octobre 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
470. sandcrab39565
8:38 PM CST on November 29, 2006
Hmmm folks are always worried about getting me started.lol
Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
469. sandcrab39565
8:36 PM CST on November 29, 2006
I know Pat it is a Long Island tea.lol
Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
468. HurricaneMyles
2:34 AM GMT on November 30, 2006
Uh oh Patrap, you're gonna get him started even more now. What I love is that the eye was never 50 miles wide. He just throws incorrect facts out there like its a fad. But he does know one correct fact at least, higher SST with all else equal means stronger storms.
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467. sandcrab39565
8:30 PM CST on November 29, 2006
Myles I understand but look at the vis it shows a clear eyewall construction this usually signifies that although the upper trough is clouded over that the eye cycle is about complete or in this case basically is and unless it interacts very soon with something if will show a rapid clearing by that time the damage is done as far as the catastrophic winds are concerned.
Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
466. Patrap
8:32 PM CST on November 29, 2006
6
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465. Patrap
8:32 PM CST on November 29, 2006
My Idea?..thats a Modest view.LOL
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464. stormchasher
2:31 AM GMT on November 30, 2006
We got a cat 5 again!
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463. HurricaneMyles
2:30 AM GMT on November 30, 2006
23...I think that small hole is just a break up in the clouds as the ERC completes. Notice where the eyewall convection is and check out the microwave pass.
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461. Patrap
8:29 PM CST on November 29, 2006
Yup..tea..I drank all the USMC coffee in the 80s myself.Love the Old Grey tea.Brings my innards around better.Doc dont want that other stuff in my er..colon.LOL!
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460. HurricaneMyles
2:28 AM GMT on November 30, 2006
sandcrab...on vis and IR the eye is still ragged and cloud filled. On microwave the eye is impressive.
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459. SteveDa1
9:29 PM EST on November 29, 2006
23 is that dry air wrapping in to the northwest?
Member Since: 17 octobre 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
458. SteveDa1
9:27 PM EST on November 29, 2006
Well there are a lot more satelite pictures here.
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457. sandcrab39565
8:27 PM CST on November 29, 2006
Pat, TEA? lol
Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
456. hurricane23
9:26 PM EST on November 29, 2006
Here another view on watervapor of the very tiny eye on durian...


Member Since: 14 mai 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
455. sandcrab39565
8:24 PM CST on November 29, 2006
Steve, I had said previously that the eye was well defined and it was stated back to me that it was ragged but looking at the previous images and seeing the eye replacement cycle I knew it was only the upper clouds that had not opened up yet due to the concentric wall flow. I hate that that cycle was able to complete before land fall.
Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
454. Melagoo
2:21 AM GMT on November 30, 2006
This is by far the best information on Typhoons

Digital Typhoon: Single Sequence View (Typhoon 200621 / DURIAN)

Link
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453. Patrap
8:25 PM CST on November 29, 2006
Im taking a Hot tea break...Shoulder dont like the Mouse inputs..aching like a toothache..
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452. SteveDa1
9:24 PM EST on November 29, 2006
Hope it all bodes well for you aspringstat. Like crab said it would be nice to get info whenever possible.
Member Since: 17 octobre 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
451. sandcrab39565
8:22 PM CST on November 29, 2006
aspiringstat, thanks please keep us posted and also if we can be of any assistance.
Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
450. Patrap
8:23 PM CST on November 29, 2006
Its okay.We all here to help.
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449. Patrap
8:22 PM CST on November 29, 2006
Okay Man..Stay safe.Keep the Faith.
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448. SteveDa1
9:21 PM EST on November 29, 2006
OK Patrap I had no clue he lived there.
Member Since: 17 octobre 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
447. Patrap
8:21 PM CST on November 29, 2006
Yeah crab..looks like it still may do that.Bad for them for sure.
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446. aspiringstat
2:19 AM GMT on November 30, 2006
Well, the weather is still fine here though somewhat cloudy. The winds are not that strong yet. I'm still waiting anxiously for more weather update from PAGASA and the television station here. As of today, more than 700 passengers are stranded in the bicol region and electricity was shut down in the southeastern parts of luzon. i'll keep u posted.
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445. SteveDa1
9:20 PM EST on November 29, 2006
I know it is there but its so small, in the next set it will be more defined.

Cant say theres no eye after you see this:

Member Since: 17 octobre 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
444. sandcrab39565
8:19 PM CST on November 29, 2006
Pat lets just hope that it does not go just south of there puts them on the bad side
Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9972
443. Patrap
8:20 PM CST on November 29, 2006
Er,. SteveDAl..hes in Manila...its an Advisory local page.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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