Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Seems like the GFDL model was correct on intensity...

saddlegait the strongest winds are usually around the eye were the most destructive winds are located.

now h23......the big wrap up post..use your best steve lyons

H23 take the FEMA course IS-324 it is a good course

saddlegait The most intense part of a tropical cyclone is in a core meaning the eyewall.Rainbands extending from the cyclone can usually begin to affect an area way before the most intense part of the cyclone comes ashore.In any of those rainbands you can experience very strong winds gusts and very heavy rain.

Saddle, If faceing 140 mph winds in the future gust over 35 would tell me to get the --- out.lol

Yes it does but even the most educated dont listen either.lol The true answer is location elevation and type of structure.

saddlegait durian is a cyclone similar to andrew were the strongest winds are in a very small core.Andrew's winds were very intense but were only confined to a small area.

Have fun everyone off to a meeting be back later.

winds now 130kt 910mb it olny drop 5 mph

lol

That was the image of the day, its a nice picture. I think Durian will make landfall on that small island sticking out. I cant see an eye and i dont think it will have time to intensify after the eye is completed (if it does).

"Thursday, the clash of air masses across the South will be just as potent as anything that happens during the spring. Warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico will bubble and churn and turn into towering thunderstorm clouds. The storms will unleash torrents of rain and damaging straight line winds. Given the very volatile and potent nature of the situation, the population in the threat zone must be alert for possible tornadoes."

Eastern Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee and Western Georgia are in that zone.

This is not a gentle storm! Anything from Heavy snow to Ice to Severe T-storms.

Hi Guys. I haven't been here for a while...I see you have things to talk about. But would someone please explain to me what's going to happen in NYC on Friday? I will be there selling my book (on foot).
jj

Chicklit

New York City:
Mostly cloudy and windy with the temperature breaking the record of 69; a couple of p.m. t-storms. Winds from the S at 15 mph.
High: 70 °F

They're talking about 40-55 mph winds! Any idea why?

Looks like we'll have some rough storms tomorrow in Huntsville, AL. The weather guys on the news have been hinting at this one all week.

just for the heck of it.. i noticed this on the NHC discussion

TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N39W 12N41W 5N42W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WE STUDIED THE RAWINSONDE DATA FROM
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WIND SHIFT FROM 700 MB TO
600 MB FROM A FEW DAYS AGO SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THE WAVE
PASSED THROUGH THERE. CYCLONIC TURNING IS APPARENT IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 13N
BETWEEN 38W AND 43W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W.

chicklit:

Friday
Rain showers likely in the morning...then rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Breezy. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 60s. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms 70 percent.

Saddlegait,

Compared to this I think your outlook is not all that bad.

Statement as of 12:35 PM CST on November 29, 2006

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 6 PM this evening
to 3 am CST Friday for the following counties...

In Arkansas...
Benton.

In Oklahoma...
Craig... Ottawa... Tulsa... Rogers... Mayes... Delaware... creek...
Okfuskee... Okmulgee... Wagoner... Cherokee... Adair... Muskogee...
McIntosh... and Pittsburg.

A powerful cold front was spreading across the warning area
today with temperature falling rapidly as the wind shifts
to the north. Rain and thunderstorms were developing and
expanding along and behind the front. This evening temperatures
will begin to fall below freezing while the rain and
thunderstorms continue. This will result in periods of freezing
rain or sleet tonight. Thunderstorms may persist while the
surface temperature GOES below freezing and this could cause
damaging ice accumulations in parts of the area tonight.

Initially the ice glaze will affect only elevated objects... but
as the temperature falls below 29 degrees the ground and Road
surfaces will also see ice accumulations.

On Thursday... snow will develop and be heavy at times. Accumulations
of 4 to 6 inches are likely along and north of a line from
Henryetta Oklahoma to Springdale Arkansas with a zone of 6 to 8 inches
of snow possible along the I-44 corridor... including Tulsa... with
local amounts to 10 inches in extreme northeast Oklahoma.

Travel could become nearly impossible on Thursday in parts of
northeast Oklahoma as winds increase and casue some blowing and
drifting of the snow.

Preprarations for this now dangerous storm should be rushed
to completion. This includes ensuring an adequate supply of
vital items like medications and baby supplies and being ready
for possible power interuptions.

I leave Durian for 9 hours to go to school, and he totally bombs out on me! Someone needs to watch these typhoons for me while I'm at school. They never do anything interesting while I watch them; they always bomb out either when I'm sleeping or at school, and by the time I come back to watch them, they start weakining!

Hi 1900.