Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Super typhoon Durian aims for the Philippines; rare tornado hits Wales

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:48 GMT le 29 novembre 2006

Super Typhoon Durian put on a very impressive burst of rapid intensification today, and is now a large and very dangerous Category 4 storm headed towards the Philippines. Durian (named for a tropical fruit) is on track to make landfall on the main island of Luzon later today and pass over the island Thursday. Winds at Catanduanes and Daet, the first major cities that will be hit, had increased to 20 mph at 1am local time Thursday, and will steadily pick up. Durian is in an environment of weak vertical wind shear, warm ocean waters, and favorable upper-level outflow. In the past 24 hours, the storm has intensified from a Category 1 typhoon with winds of 85 mph to a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds and a central pressure of 916 mb. Durian has a good chance of intensifying into a Category 5 super typhoon later today, before interaction with land and passage over Luzon start to weaken the storm. Unfortunately, Durian is expected to slow down as it passes over the Philippines, and may pass near the heavily populated capital city of Manila, a city of 12 million. The slow motion will make Durian a prodigious rainmaker, and NOAA's Satellite Analysis Branch is predicting rain amounts of up to eight inches in 24 hours (Figure 2). Heavy rains that trigger flash floods and mudslides are the primary hazards of typhoons in the Philippines, and we can expect damage and loss of life similar to what devastating Typhoon Xangsane did to the islands on September 27. Xangsane, a Category 4 typhoon that passed over Manilla, killed 218, did over $100 million in damage, and left tens of thousands homeless. The Philippines have raised its highest alert level, and are moving coastal residents out where a storm surge of up to 15 feet is expected. Schools have been cancelled today and all sea travel suspended.

Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Durian from NOAA.

The Philippines have been hit particularly hard this typhoon season, and Durian will be the 4th major typhoon to wallop the island in the past three months. Typhoon Chebi hit Luzon as a Category 3 typhoon on November 11, but hit the less populated northern portion of the island and moved quickly enough that heavy rains and flooding caused relatively little damage. Super Typhoon Cimaron made landfall October 29 as a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 160-180 mph. Cimaron killed at least 27, destroyed 2600 homes, and damaged another 18,000.

Figure 2. Latest precipitation forecast for a 24-hour period from NOAA's Satellite Analysis Branch.

Tornado hits Wales
A rare tornado hit Wales in the British Islands yesterday, according to news reports from the BBC. The small tornado, which hit at 1:30 am local time, damaged 20 homes. Tornadoes are rare in the British Islands due to the lack of cold, dry continental air needed to generate severe thunderstorms. Here's the weather discussion put out by the UK Met office before the tornado:

CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION issued at 1045 GMT on Tuesday 28th November 2006 Valid from/until: 1045 - 2359 GMT on Tuesday 28th November for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Coastal areas of Wales SW England Southern coastal counties of England Channel Islands

SYNOPSIS: Large upper trough/cold pool is approaching from the west. Cold advection aloft/synoptic lift will cause instability to increase with CAPE values of 2-300 J/Kg expected, with LIs down to -2C or so. Flow is rather unidirectional, and low-level/deep layer shear are not large. However, just ahead of the trough, some increase is 850 hPa winds are forecast by some mesoscale models, especially across northern parts of Wales early-mid afternoon.

THREATS: Heavy showers/a few thunderstorms are expected to affect the areas this afternoon and evening, with the risk shifting east over time. The main effects of these will be hail 15-20mm diameter, gusty winds, briefly torrential rain and a few cloud-ground lightning strikes. However, there is a small risk of tornadic development, especially across northern parts of Wales early-mid afternoon, as 850 hPa wind max moves through. Elsewhere, the risk is lower, but still there. Overall though, the risk is deemed too low for a WATCH to be issued.

Jeff Masters

TORRNOADO ALERT IN BRITAIN (richie123098)

over the past week Britain had been hit with servre Storms and flooding and very high windsi got some pictures of a tornado in a west Wales village which struck last niteTornado warnings are in affect in South Wales, West Wales and south west England today

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351. Wishcasterboy 01:23 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Pat, nice job.

352. sandcrab39565 01:24 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Pat I am working on two groups Red Cross and Ameri-corps keep the go bag packed.lol Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9971

353. Patrap 01:24 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Here shows the Banding of the low cloud deck...wellLink Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111617

354. SteveDa1 01:24 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Always there to help :) I'll look at the evelation for the philipines on Google Earth. Member Since: 17 octobre 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 1057

355. Wishcasterboy 01:25 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
They look like clouds.

356. Patrap 01:27 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Stays ready Sand..you know that..This ones has a all too familiar taste to it.That Big momentumn is going somewhere.And it may do a nasty deed on them.We will see come Friday am here.The damage results.Lets hope were very wrong. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111617

357. Wishcasterboy 01:28 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
No defining sinkhole yet, she's running out of time.

359. Wishcasterboy 01:29 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Pat, are you involved with the Red Cross?

360. sandcrab39565 01:30 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
I hope so Pat I got first hand reports from the last one took about 5 days to get good details but I have already made contact so we will see if the request is made. It will take about 3 weeks to put together Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9971

361. Wishcasterboy 01:30 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Ahh crap!

363. Patrap 01:32 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
No..Wish.Just Bantering with sandcrab.Hes an Emergency Manager for Jackson County ,Mississippi and a Hurricane veteran friend of Mine.He tasks for them . Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111617

364. Wishcasterboy 01:32 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Wait are you saying you guys could end up going there for relief efforts.

365. SteveDa1 01:32 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Black colour on eastern eyewall! What do the colours on this map mean anyway (rainbow): Member Since: 17 octobre 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 1057

366. Patrap 01:32 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
We still have Reeldrlauras brother contact info? Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111617

367. Patrap 01:34 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
With the seperation between the Islands..the inflow isnt being impeded on the SW fetch side.Plus the enviroment for this one is plenty good still. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111617

368. Patrap 01:35 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Looks like Classic buzz saw signature now. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111617

369. Wishcasterboy 01:36 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Crab, a emergency manager! I would have never guessed!

370. sandcrab39565 01:36 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Yes I do I kept all that info. Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9971

371. Patrap 01:37 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Also the eye is tracking thru the narrowest water straits like its got a GPS driving.Avoiding the land masses proper so far. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111617

372. HurricaneMyles 01:37 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Steve...The colors are different temps of the convection just like normal IR. On the Atlantic floaters theres a checkbox that tells your the IR temp of the different colors. Check it our for rainbow if you want to know the approx temps. Member Since: 12 janvier 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827

373. HadesGodWyvern 01:37 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
another storm? Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36689

374. Patrap 01:37 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Okay..cause Ive still got his info too. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111617

375. Wishcasterboy 01:37 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
I'm starting too see a sinkhole, but there's just not enough time for her to really change much.

376. SteveDa1 01:38 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Thanks Myles for the info! Member Since: 17 octobre 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 1057

377. Patrap 01:39 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Tops to 60k with that look on the Backside in the Black.... Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111617

378. Wishcasterboy 01:39 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Not long now before Durian will be over land.

379. sandcrab39565 01:40 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
I will forward it to you if you like . Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9971

380. SteveDa1 01:41 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
I dont see any chekboxes there. Link Member Since: 17 octobre 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 1057

381. Patrap 01:41 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Durian went from this size.. a Linkcat 1... Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111617

382. Patrap 01:42 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
To this in less than 48...Link Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111617

383. Wishcasterboy 01:43 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Welcome to the Pacific!

384. Wishcasterboy 01:44 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
I though that Durian was always big, even when it was just a tropical storm.

385. MargieKieper 01:45 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Sandcrab EM for Jackson Cty, MS -- is that Butch? Member Since: 15 juin 2006 Posts: 181 Comments: 354

386. sandcrab39565 01:46 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Hey Margie yes it is.lol Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9971

387. Tazmanian 01:46 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
oh my gold the 2nd navy site this update it to 140kt and 898mb look like it will be makeing land fall as cat 5 it made it to cat 5 Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111359

388. HurricaneMyles 01:46 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Steve..You have to go the the Atlantic floaters, its not on the MTSAT in the W Pac. Atl Floater 1 Member Since: 12 janvier 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827

389. Patrap 01:47 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
A reunion of tropical minds.Cool! Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111617

390. Patrap 01:48 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Yes Taz, Good observation man.Its going to be a Bad Blow for them. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111617

391. MargieKieper 01:48 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Oh that's funny. Hey I kept trying to get hold of you w/no luck. Did you see the Katrina's surge series I wrote? Member Since: 15 juin 2006 Posts: 181 Comments: 354

392. Wishcasterboy 01:49 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Found thee atlast!

393. hurricane23 01:49 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Durian still has excellent upper-level outflow but should begin to weaken at a steady rate as windshear is set to increase and land interaction begin to take a toll on the cyclone.Durian is forcasted to put the brakes on and dump very heavy rains causing mud-slides which is probably already occuring in some areas.Overall this is the 4th powerful typhoon that has affected this general area this year. Here are a few pics i took overnight of durian... Member Since: 14 mai 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13277

394. sandcrab39565 01:50 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Yes I did been so busy that I have not replied. I also went to a class and my secretary deleted all my old emails so I need it again. Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9971

395. MargieKieper 01:53 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Hee hee. I'll send you a wunderground email. Got to run -- talk again later. Member Since: 15 juin 2006 Posts: 181 Comments: 354

396. SteveDa1 01:53 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Myles - But that is southest coast of US... Ohh did you send me that link just to see the temps cause you can't on MTSAT? Thanks then. Member Since: 17 octobre 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 1057

397. Tazmanian 01:54 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
the navy site this update Typhoon Durian to 140kt and 898mb it is now a cat 5 Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111359

398. sandcrab39565 01:54 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Ok thanks have a good evening Member Since: 25 juin 2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9971

399. Wishcasterboy 01:54 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Butch? that Makes seven Butch's I know now.

400. rapidintensification 01:55 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
When is the next advisory?

401. HurricaneMyles 01:55 GMT le 30 novembre 2006
Steve, excactly. They arent on the MTSAT floaters but the scale is the same. Member Since: 12 janvier 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827

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